Wave Over the North Central Gulf

[StormWeather]

Zero model support for this. Not sure why because it has good convergence at the surface and upper level anticyclone over the top. Models apparently see something to make them unenthusiastic. Hopefully it will bring some much needed rain to my house.

Have we ever had a TC form with no model support before?

It’s been off/on some ensembles. Part of this area was once 94l

But 94L’s remnants are long gone? How would this be a part a part of 94L, that was well over a week ago.

[StormWeather]

If you look at the low level flow, it is starting to bend into the convection

https://i.imgur.com/FchoZir.gif

I feel like the NHC should put a 10/10 or 20/20 lemon on this just to keep tabs on it.

[BobHarlem]

Have we ever had a TC form with no model support before?

It’s been off/on some ensembles. Part of this area was once 94l

But 94L’s remnants are long gone? How would this be a part a part of 94L, that was well over a week ago.

Easy to spot on 850mb vorticity charts.

[sittingduck]

been watching this all morning thinking I was alone in thinking this could turn into something. Glad to see all the posts lol. Very still humid air in Venice today. A few small showers here and there.

[Hurricaneman]

I’ll say this, wouldn’t be surprised if this did develop into a tropical cyclone, it’s already showing signs of doing so

[HurricaneBelle]

 https://x.com/GregPostel/status/1954584570457677966

[ChrisH-UK]

The MCS off the coast of Florida in the Gulf is looking more tropical by the hour.

[zzzh]

Nothing on the surface.

[BobHarlem]

Starting to look like tropical shenanigans afoot, but nothing at the surface yet -- if that appears and manages to work its way down stuff will happen quickly, but that's very rare so I don't expect much more than a satellite show:

[TomballEd]

Nice blow of moisture with the disturbance but its surrounded by the desert. Maybe that holds it back. Low shear and a nice outflow jet to the upper low in the Caribbean. A lot closer than 97L, even if not model supported. Nice divergence/convergence couplet on CIMSS. But w/o model support I'd say chance of a TC is 10% or less.

[DunedinDave]

Starting to look like tropical shenanigans afoot, but nothing at the surface yet -- if that appears and manages to work its way down stuff will happen quickly...:
https://i.postimg.cc/NGzXxwcq/56553523.gif

Have any of the models even predicted anything out of this? How often does something form out of nowhere like this with nobody predicting it?

[Cpv17]

Starting to look like tropical shenanigans afoot, but nothing at the surface yet -- if that appears and manages to work its way down stuff will happen quickly...:
https://i.postimg.cc/NGzXxwcq/56553523.gif

Have any of the models even predicted anything out of this? How often does something form out of nowhere like this with nobody predicting it?

Yes, some ensembles were developing this a while back.

[ChrisH-UK]

Starting to look like tropical shenanigans afoot, but nothing at the surface yet -- if that appears and manages to work its way down stuff will happen quickly...:
https://i.postimg.cc/NGzXxwcq/56553523.gif

Have any of the models even predicted anything out of this? How often does something form out of nowhere like this with nobody predicting it?

Yes some have been showing something happening the best was ECMWF ensembles have a tropical storm just before landfall. This was from friday morning looking at the week ahead using Google Weather Lab models, orange is the euro ensembles.

[BobHarlem]

No mention on the 2pm outlook.

[TomballEd]

Starting to look like tropical shenanigans afoot, but nothing at the surface yet -- if that appears and manages to work its way down stuff will happen quickly...:
https://i.postimg.cc/NGzXxwcq/56553523.gif

Have any of the models even predicted anything out of this? How often does something form out of nowhere like this with nobody predicting it?

Yes, some ensembles were developing this a while back.

Not one of the current 12Z ensembles develop it. Except one Canadian member which brings a TD to Mobile.

[Cpv17]

Have any of the models even predicted anything out of this? How often does something form out of nowhere like this with nobody predicting it?

Yes, some ensembles were developing this a while back.

Not one of the current 12Z ensembles develop it. Except one Canadian member which brings a TD to Mobile.

Yeah, it lost ensemble support over the past few days.

[TomballEd]

Looking at IR there is a lot of cold cloud tops but I don't see a circulation as much as I see something of a QLCS propagating to the SW.

[ronjon]

Appears like what circulation there is is still at the mid-level. Have to work it's way down to the surface. There may be a weak inverted trough though at the surface. Have to see if convection sustains itself through D-MIN. I agree based on VIS SAT it "looks like" a depression.

[tropicwatch]

Forecast models have trouble sometimes with homegrown systems.

[BobHarlem]

Nothing really new here, but interesting seeing the cold cloud tops ride up the band to Central Florida.