Possible development in the Gulf of Mexico (Is Invest 92L)

[toad strangler]

18z GFS hammers the FL peninsula. Good thing it’s way out there.

[SFLcane]

assault on FL continues…

[ConvergenceZone]

Ooof assault on FL continues…

https://i.postimg.cc/qM4BMTZG/IMG-9518.gif

I really hope to God this doesn't happen, but it is concerning that GFS continues to show consistency with this. Thanks for posting the model SFLcane.

[thundercam96]

GFS trend over the past two-days(ish) showing Sun 10/6. Looks like genesis is mid-week, similar to Helene. Curious to read the NHC discussions heading into the weekend.

[cycloneye]

Western Caribbean:
An area of low pressure could form over the western Caribbean Sea
by the middle of next week. Environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for slow development thereafter, while the system
moves generally northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[underthwx]

assault on FL continues…

https://i.postimg.cc/qM4BMTZG/IMG-9518.gif

Perish the thought.....I just noticed that area is highlighted in the carribean...

[Travorum]

18z GFS:

[verruckt]

18z GFS:
https://i.imgur.com/2fGw1bP.gif

Not that it will play out that way, but could you imagine ~72 hours sustained hurricane winds across most of central FL?

Let alone the rain from a storm hanging out for 72 hours pulling from both coasts...

[Travorum]

18z GFS:
https://i.imgur.com/2fGw1bP.gif

Not that it will play out that way, but could you imagine ~72 hours sustained hurricane winds across most of central FL?

Let alone the rain from a storm hanging out for 72 hours pulling from both coasts...

If this gets into the gulf it's going to be terrible no matter what path it ends up taking. Either it hangs over central FL and exacerbates the damage from Helene or it tracks over LA and becomes Francine 2.0

[Michele B]

Seems like regardless of what happens here it will be shot out of a cannon from the BoC toward Florida.

ICON shows near Tampa landfall.

[Hurricaneman]

It seems to come from a mix of a monsoon gyre and a tropical wave currently near the lesser Antilles

[Michele B]

assault on FL continues…

https://i.postimg.cc/qM4BMTZG/IMG-9518.gif

Aw, shoooo-

Can we just - NOT!

We're literally trying to LEAVE FL due to too many hurricanes. Hubs was supposed to leave this week-end, uh, NOT! Thanks, Helene. Now has to wait to see if roads/bridges/gas availability are in place.

THEN, along comes ANOTHER storm, where he'd want to stay with me through it?

Shooooooooot.

[Category5Kaiju]

18z GFS:
https://i.imgur.com/2fGw1bP.gif

Yeah, no thank you.

[ROCK]

doesn't look to be as large as Helene but still though FL needs a break.

[Soluna16]

The signal for this is showing up on basically every major model. Seems legit. Does anyone have a clue which wave it currently is in the Atlantic?

[jfk08c]

The signal for this is showing up on basically every major model. Seems legit. Does anyone have a clue which wave it currently is in the Atlantic?

Its not an Atlantic wave. It would spawn off the CAG like Helene did

[Soluna16]

The signal for this is showing up on basically every major model. Seems legit. Does anyone have a clue which wave it currently is in the Atlantic?

Its not an Atlantic wave. It would spawn off the CAG like Helene did

Are you sure? I think it's both interacting. There's a wave near the Lesser Antilles that matches up in timing.

[jfk08c]

The signal for this is showing up on basically every major model. Seems legit. Does anyone have a clue which wave it currently is in the Atlantic?

Its not an Atlantic wave. It would spawn off the CAG like Helene did

Are you sure? I think it's both interacting. There's a wave near the Lesser Antilles that matches up in timing.

Yeah if you look at vorticity, it originates from the northern tip of Colombia. I see what you're looking at, though. Might have a hand in kicking something off

[Travorum]

The signal for this is showing up on basically every major model. Seems legit. Does anyone have a clue which wave it currently is in the Atlantic?

Its not an Atlantic wave. It would spawn off the CAG like Helene did

Are you sure? I think it's both interacting. There's a wave near the Lesser Antilles that matches up in timing.

I would agree looking at the 18z GFS. It seems like the genesis is a combination of the wave currently over the windward islands mixing with the CAG vorticity near Nicaragua. 850mb vorticity shows it pretty well:

[AnnularCane]

18z GFS:
https://i.imgur.com/2fGw1bP.gif

What's it doing, coming back to give Florida a kiss before heading out?