2024 Global ACE: NH - 453.9 / NATL - 161.6 / EPAC - 82.0 / WPAC - 204.0 / NIO - 6.3

[cycloneye]

Just took a peek and CSU is at 34.9 ....

Came short of the whole 2013 total ACE of 36.1.

[cycloneye]

The 2024 season already tied with the whole 2013 ACE with 36.1. Beryl has 35.1.

https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/

[cycloneye]

toad strangler, now that Beryl is a TD, there will be any more ACE generated and added to the total. That is unless at post season report, there are ajustments.

[cycloneye]

Wow, NATL more than WPAC does not happen many times.

 https://x.com/DCAreaWx/status/1812141794253312500

[LarryWx]

Wow, NATL more than WPAC does not happen many times.

 https://x.com/DCAreaWx/status/1812141794253312500

It has happened only 6 times since 1950 though the frequency has increased recently:
1950, 98, 99, 10, 17, 20

[Teban54]

 https://x.com/wutxori/status/1821345050082550156

[cycloneye]

The North Atlantic is well above the normal average for this date. (14.1) The realtime ACE as of August 14th at 09:00z is 42.5. Quuality over quantity so far in the 2024 season.

[cycloneye]

Who said the NATL is slow, nah. It has passed the 50 ACE threshold and much more units to come.

[cycloneye]

Ernesto keeps adding some more ACE that will help the NATL mantain the well above average status. (18.0 is the average for August 19)

[dexterlabio]

Pacific inching close to Atlantic's ACE to date...but even if it catches up, the number would still be well below average for its standard

[toad strangler]

W PAC has taken over the NH top spot and the E PAC is closing in on 2nd place and an attempt to drop the N ATL to 3rd

56.2 W PAC
55.1 N ATL
47.2 E PAC

[cycloneye]

Yes. EPAC reaches the 50 ACE mark.

[cycloneye]

 https://x.com/DRmetwatch/status/1829131756403925004

[ChrisH-UK]

Disclaimer - I'm not a climate scientist and could be quite wrong in my interpretation of the data.

The last few years i have been interested in the effect of the heat of the oceans in terms of tropical cyclones and the el-nino and la-nina and seeing if the heat difference between the Pacific and the Atlantic has an effect. A good example of this was last year when we should of had a El Nino vut due to the heat of both the Atlantic and the Pacific it was more a neutral year abet a hot one. Now lets come to ACE I looked at does a hot Atlantic mean having more ACE and with that a worse year, well..

Looking at the SST's of El-Nino region 3.4 and the equivalent in the Atlantic here's what we get.

Atlantic Nino region VS Atlantic ACE



Well as you can see the amount of ACE per year is spread out. Now let's look at whether the temperature difference between the Atlantic Nino and El Nino 3.4 makes a difference.

Temperature Difference of Atlantic and Pacific and ACE



As you can see when the Atlantic Nino is colder than El-Nino 3.4 (Negative on the Graph) the ACE figures for those years are lower and when its is hotter (Positive on the Graph) the ACE figures per year are much higher, so far this year were slightly warmer (0.38c) than the Pacific.

[cycloneye]

Looking like Gordon will generate very few ACE points and the indications are that the 2024 season will continue to struggle to get to or over 100 and be far from the hyperactive line of 165.

[cycloneye]

How things changed after Beryl.



https://weathertiger.substack.com/p/rea ... -hurricane

 https://x.com/IPTCWCDirector/status/1835767165313773702

[WeatherBoy2000]

How things changed after Beryl.

https://i.imgur.com/GX1wzjp.jpeg

https://weathertiger.substack.com/p/rea ... -hurricane

 https://x.com/IPTCWCDirector/status/1835767165313773702

I'm amazed that "below normal" hasn't started creeping up yet.

[Teban54]

How things changed after Beryl.

https://i.imgur.com/GX1wzjp.jpeg

https://weathertiger.substack.com/p/rea ... -hurricane

 https://x.com/IPTCWCDirector/status/1835767165313773702

I'm amazed that "below normal" hasn't started creeping up yet.

We're already at 61.0, and the Weather Tiger chart classifies below normal as 75 ACE (NOAA uses 73). Another 14 ACE isn't hard to get all things considered. For example, even assuming nothing forms in the next 10 days (which itself may not be true), following 1991-2020 climo from September 26 onwards gives you 33.7 ACE, placing the season at just 2 ACE below the 1951-2020 median of 96.7.

[dexterlabio]

None of the NHem basins have yet to reach 100 ACE units. The Atlantic was supposed to carry this year in terms of TC activity, as expected from a post-Niño/Niña year like 1998 and 2010. This is shaping up to be one of the least active tropical cyclone seasons globally.

[galaxy401]

I wonder if the Atlantic could still climb over 100 units depending on how active the late season is. Could be low on named storms but still higher on ACE.