Possible Development Near the GA/Bahamas (Is Invest 98L)

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

Southwestern Atlantic:
A complex, non-tropical area of low pressure is expected to develop
this weekend over the northeastern Caribbean Sea or the
southwestern Atlantic. Some slow subtropical or tropical
development of this system is possible afterward while it moves
generally northward to northwestward through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[crimi481]

So this may end up in the Gulf? Then what?

[Blown Away]

18z GEFS

[LarryWx]

https://i.postimg.cc/XYkzCX7v/78602617.gif

18z GEFS

This is still another run that suggests significant effects (rain and wind) quite possible over E FL on US Election Day, something that could reduce turnout. Reduction % in turnout due to wx tends to not be equal for all sides. Thus it could have a significant effect on the outcome of close races.

I looked back every two years to see if there were any previous US Election Days marred by an Atlantic basin tropical or subtropical cyclone. I found none affecting the lower 48 states. But I did find 1984's TS Klaus (see link below) that directly affected PR on Election Day (11/6). So, this system could make history in the lower 48 as very likely the first Atlantic TC or STC affecting a portion on Election Day.

1984's Klaus track is here:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1984.png

[AJC3]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Nov 3 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Atlantic:
Another non-tropical, but complex area of low pressure is expected
to develop this weekend over the northeastern Caribbean Sea or the
southwestern Atlantic. Some slow subtropical or tropical development
of this system is possible afterward while it moves generally
northward to northwestward through early next week.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[GCANE]

Euro is now developing a surface low in the GoM

[Blown Away]

Euro is now developing a surface low in the GoM

06z GFS


00z EURO

Models beginning to show a weak surface low developing starting E of FL then into the GOM.

[N2FSU]

0z Euro


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

Southwestern Atlantic:
A large non-tropical low pressure system is expected to develop this
weekend over the northeastern Caribbean sea and southwestern
Atlantic. The system is expected to initially be very broad and
disorganized, but environmental conditions could support gradual
subtropical or tropical development beginning early next week while
it moves generally northward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[jlauderdal]

Euro is now developing a surface low in the GoM

06z GFS


00z EURO

Models beginning to show a weak surface low developing starting E of FL then into the GOM.

Another florida hit, thoughts and prayers

[chaser1]

An interesting footnote to one weird season for sure but I'm pretty sure "this one" won't be sending tens of thousands to stock up on water or rush off and top off their gas tanks

[SFLcane]

[GCANE]

Progression of GFS runs had a PV streamer over FL which dissipates and is now developing an ARWB.
If further model runs continue along this trend, the possibility of a "not-so-weak" TC becomes more and more likely in the GoM.

[Zonacane]

Whatever this turns into is going to be cursed

[ThunderForce]

Is this thing likely to become a hurricane if it indeed ends up in the Gulf like a few models are showing the possibility of?

[LarryWx]

Is this thing likely to become a hurricane if it indeed ends up in the Gulf like a few models are showing the possibility of?

No, it is not likely to become a hurricane if it ends up as an intact low in the Gulf.

[GCANE]

GFS is trending toward development in the southern Bahamas with a move thru the FL Straits, possibly into the GoM

[GCANE]

GFS is trending toward development in the southern Bahamas with a move thru the FL Straits, possibly into the GoM

Development is pretty the same area for CMC but runs it along the Gulf Stream

[GCANE]

Most of the globals, at this point, show a solid warm core with a threat for the FL east coast.
Initialization is off the coast of Venezula Saturday.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

Southwestern Atlantic:
A large non-tropical low pressure system is expected to develop this
weekend across the northeastern Caribbean sea and southwestern
Atlantic. The system is expected to initially be very broad and
disorganized, but environmental conditions could support gradual
subtropical or tropical development beginning early next week while
it moves generally northwestward or westward over the southwestern
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.