Tropical Wave in the Central Atlantic (40W)

[cycloneye]

[Blown Away]

12z GFS, looks like a recurve starting @312 hours, but it's not a slam dunk. Probably Cat 4 at this point.

[cycloneye]

[Blown Away]

12z GFS... 324 hrs, classic stall in that position trying to decide on recurve or get shoved W.

[cycloneye]

Recurves. Is long range and the first run with this so let's see if there is a repeat in next runs.

[Blown Away]

12z GFS

[AutoPenalti]

Hah, look at that. 70W the magic number.

[SFLcane]

[Blown Away]

12z GFS

[Teban54]

At 384 hours, looks like the ridge builds back in and the storm may plow into the Carolinas. Fantasy range of course.

[WiscoWx02]

I thought 18z was happy hour for the GFS? Will the next model run from the GFS and Euro show anything like in the last run…probably not given how this year has gone so far.

[SouthFLTropics]

I thought 18z was happy hour for the GFS? Will the next model run from the GFS and Euro show anything like in the last run…probably not given how this year has gone so far.

It’s Friday… the GFS didn’t want to wait for happy hour and started day drinking early.

On a serious note, the ensembles continue to support activity north of the Greater Antilles and through the Bahamas… a recurve, while always likely, is never set in stone. If the models continue the trend of 12z today, I can foresee many long hours of model watching and waiting to see if the ridge is there or not in the days and weeks to come.


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[LarryWx]

I thought 18z was happy hour for the GFS? Will the next model run from the GFS and Euro show anything like in the last run…probably not given how this year has gone so far.

Interestingly, the Happy Hour run is so far the only GFS run over the last 5 days that has yet to generate a W Atlantic H from this AEW. This 12Z GFS makes 5 GFS runs with a W Atlantic H from this wave:
8/15 0Z, 8/16 6Z, 8/17 0Z, 8/17 6Z, and 8/19 12Z.

[lsuhurricane]

Appears that the 12z Euro is set to play ball with this system as well. Interesting times ahead.

[LarryWx]

 The 12Z GEFS is the most threatening run to the CONUS from this AEW since the 0Z 8/18 run. The 6Z 8/18 run was had a number of threats but that was mainly from what I consider bogus stuff coming off of the area near Suriname in S America.

[SFLcane]

I thought 18z was happy hour for the GFS? Will the next model run from the GFS and Euro show anything like in the last run…probably not given how this year has gone so far.

Interestingly, the Happy Hour run is so far the only GFS run over the last 5 days that has yet to generate a W Atlantic H from this AEW. This 12Z GFS makes 5 GFS runs with a W Atlantic H from this wave:
8/15 0Z, 8/16 6Z, 8/17 0Z, 8/17 6Z, and 8/19 12Z.

12z Gefs let's just say is entertaining.

[LarryWx]

Appears that the 12z Euro is set to play ball with this system as well. Interesting times ahead.

Today's 12Z Euro is only the 2nd Euro op run developing this wave at all. The only other run that did anything with it was the 8/12 12Z run. If interested, go to a Tropical Tidbits and look at hour 240 of 8/12 12Z run while it is still there. So, after the 8/12 12Z Euro had developed this AEW some at the end of the run, it took a full week of Euro runs to develop it at all again!

Edit: S FLcane, yeah, I had just noted the 12Z GEFS just above your post.

[lsuhurricane]

Appears that the 12z Euro is set to play ball with this system as well. Interesting times ahead.

ETA: first GFS/Euro model agreement on a MDR storm this far this year? Kudos to the GFS for sniffing this early this week if this solution holds. Appears to find the smallest weakness and recurves. Close call to recurve before HP shoved it west and southwestward. Ensembles will likely be all over the place

[Kingarabian]

90L soon.

[LarryWx]

Appears that the 12z Euro is set to play ball with this system as well. Interesting times ahead.

Ironically, though the Euro has been MIA with regard to this wave, the 12Z 08/12/22 Euro actually had it develop (the last one to do so before it suddenly came back in today's 12Z) while the 12Z 08/12/22 GFS did not:

12Z 8/12/22 Euro actually developed it:


While the 12Z 8/12/22 GFS didn't develop it:


12Z 8/19/22 Euro for same timeframe brings it back though further N: