Watching Bay of Campeche & SW Gulf Next Week (Is Invest 92L)

[cycloneye]

NHC sticks to SW Caribbean.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of low pressure is expected to develop over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea by Wednesday or Thursday. Some gradual development
will be possible thereafter while the system moves slowly
northwestward toward Central America. Regardless of development,
this system could produce heavy rainfall across northern Colombia
and portions of Central America from Honduras southward later this
week and into the weekend. See products from your local
meteorological service for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Forecaster Stewart

[Ubuntwo]

The happy hour GFS develops this energy into a 983 mb hurricane as it moves OTS, after striking central Florida as a TS. It's also followed up by a weak crossover system Maybe the gfs is back to its old 'fun'

[Nimbus]

Some convection bubbling up at sunset with upper level shear, so does appear to be some low pressure at the surface.

[Jr0d]

Some convection bubbling up at sunset with upper level shear, so does appear to be some low pressure at the surface.

Still at least 5 days from something developing though...still a model storm with tons of support. I would be surprised if this becomes an invest before Friday.

That said, the sooner the better for me. Hopefully it is north of Key West by next Saturday...the 19th.

The trend I've noticed with model storms is their development nos often later than the early runs indicate.

[NDG]

Experience has taught me that these early monsoonal lows take forever to get going, I will check back in 5 days if not closer to 7 days.

[StPeteMike]

Some convection bubbling up at sunset with upper level shear, so does appear to be some low pressure at the surface.

Still at least 5 days from something developing though...still a model storm with tons of support. I would be surprised if this becomes an invest before Friday.

That said, the sooner the better for me. Hopefully it is north of Key West by next Saturday...the 19th.

The trend I've noticed with model storms is their development nos often later than the early runs indicate.

Earlier runs had a 14th genesis, now pushed back about 2 days. The Wed 12z/Thurs 0z runs will have a pretty good understanding on what happens by the 14th and we should have a better grasp of what, if anything, heads towards the Gulf.

[Hurricaneman]

looks as though the seed is being planted in the SW Caribbean but we will have to see what happens in the next few days with the disturbed weather

[wxman57]

Models appear to be backing off on development potential and/or delaying any development, which is a typical sign of a modelcane. I see virtually zero chance of development in the next 5 days. The NHC (Stewart) upped chances to 30% over the next 5 days, but I don't have a clue why.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

An area of low pressure is expected to develop over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days. Some gradual
development will be possible thereafter while the system moves
slowly northwestward toward Central America. Regardless of
development, this system could produce heavy rainfall across
northern Colombia and portions of Central America from Honduras
southward later this week and into the weekend. See products from
your local meteorological service for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch

[jlauderdal]

Models appear to be backing off on development potential and/or delaying any development, which is a typical sign of a modelcane. I see virtually zero chance of development in the next 5 days. The NHC (Stewart) upped chances to 30% over the next 5 days, but I don't have a clue why.

Stewart is a +20% at all times and taking that into a account, 10% would still be generous

[Nuno]

30% isn't exactly a high percentage. As long as the potential for a CAG exists, with all the energy that's festering down there, 30% in 5 days is pretty reasonable. Gotta nowcast it..

[wxman57]

30% isn't exactly a high percentage. As long as the potential for a CAG exists, with all the energy that's festering down there, 30% in 5 days is pretty reasonable. Gotta nowcast it..

There is some potential development, but not until the 8-11 day time period. There is no model support for any development through Saturday.

[Jr0d]

Looks like EURO has dropped this in favor of an EPAC storm. The GFS is slower, weaker and further west.

I do not see any chance of an invest until next week.

[cycloneye]

Down to 20%.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad trough of low pressure is expected to develop over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days. Some
gradual development will be possible thereafter while the system
moves slowly northwestward toward Central America. Regardless of
development, this system could produce heavy rainfall across
northern Colombia and portions of Central America from Honduras
southward later this week and into the weekend. See products from
your local meteorological service for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch

[DorkyMcDorkface]

As others have stated they may have highlighted this one too early. The real area to watch seems to be the Bay of Campeche in about 7-10 days.

[Jr0d]

I wrote too soon, now the EURO is showing a hurricane in the western Gulf, however now the GFS is showing nothing for the next 7 days... .. obviously way too early but I am bit surprised at how much a difference 24 hrs makes in the forecast.

[aspen]

As others have stated they may have highlighted this one too early. The real area to watch seems to be the Bay of Campeche in about 7-10 days.

The BoC system does appear to be from the CAG. If I’m interpreting the models right, the CAG starts off further south, but a part of it moves into the very southern Gulf of Mexico and becomes the system both the GFS and Euro are showing in the 200-240 hr range.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Tue Jun 8 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad trough of low pressure is expected to develop over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days. Some
gradual development will be possible thereafter while the system
moves slowly northwestward toward Central America. Regardless of
development, this system could produce heavy rainfall across
northern Colombia and portions of Central America from Honduras
southward later this week and into the weekend. See products from
your local meteorological service for more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Papin/Stewart

[wxman57]

Down to 10% now. No model is predicting development by this weekend (within 5 days). It's late next week where we need to watch the western Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

Down to 0%.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Jun 9 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad trough of low pressure has developed over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea associated with a westward-moving tropical wave.
However, significant development of this system is not expected
while the disturbance moves west-northwestward over Central America
during the next couple of days. Regardless, this system could
produce heavy rainfall across northern Colombia and portions of
Central America from Honduras southward late this week and over the
weekend. See products from your local meteorological service for
more information.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Stewart