Area in SW Caribbean

[tomatkins]

12z GFS shows a tiny TC into Panama. If future Kappa get to CAT1 it could be the first ever hurricane to hit Panama. Can't get more 2020 than this

Not only that, but if you follow it, it is coming very close to taking it over the Isthmus of Teaohuanapec and into the Bay of Campeche.

[EquusStorm]

I kept assuming this was convective feedback, but clearly 2020 has other plans and really hates Central America.

[supercane4867]

12z euro has a clear spin in the timeframe where GFS shows a TC and there's another spin coming after this(!)

[EquusStorm]

Ok please stop 2020

For real two months this year are trying to make up for the last nine years in the WCarib

[underthwx]

12z GFS shows a tiny TC into Panama. If future Kappa get to CAT1 it could be the first ever hurricane to hit Panama. Can't get more 2020 than this

2020 doesn't want to quit.

No Crazy C....on and on it goes...anything that comes from this low, is it Panama bound?...

[kevin]

HWRF shows a 1000 mbar low at 105 hours.

[supercane4867]

For real two months this year are trying to make up for the last nine years in the WCarib

The Atlantic is the ultimate “go big or go broke” basin.

[cycloneye]

A new area of low pressure could form in a couple of days over the
central or southwestern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be conducive for some development, and a tropical
depression could form by the end of the week while the system moves
slowly westward or west-southwestward across the southwestern
Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[ElectricStorm]

12am:

1. A new area of low pressure could form in a couple of days over the
central or southwestern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be conducive for some development, and a tropical
depression could form by the end of the week while the system moves
slowly westward or west-southwestward across the southwestern
Caribbean Sea.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[supercane4867]

Recent GFS runs are much less optimistic about development.

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure could form in a couple of days over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions are forecast
to be conducive for slow development, and a tropical depression
could form by the weekend while the system moves slowly westward or
west-southwestward across the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
Regardless of development, areas of heavy rain are possible during
the next several days from Nicaragua southward across Central
America and into Colombia. These rains could cause new flooding
concerns, especially across previously inundated areas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure could form in a day or so over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions do not
appear to be as conducive for development as once thought, but slow
development is possible over the next several days while the system
moves slowly westward or west-southwestward across the southwestern
Caribbean Sea. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, areas of
heavy rain are possible during the next several days from Nicaragua
southward across Central America and into Colombia. These rains
could cause new flooding concerns, especially across previously
inundated areas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[AutoPenalti]

A broad area of low pressure could form in a day or so over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea. Environmental conditions do not
appear to be as conducive for development as once thought, but slow
development is possible over the next several days while the system
moves slowly westward or west-southwestward across the southwestern
Caribbean Sea. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, areas of
heavy rain are possible during the next several days from Nicaragua
southward across Central America and into Colombia. These rains
could cause new flooding concerns, especially across previously
inundated areas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

I've never seen them use this terminology.

I would have gone with Environmental conditions do not appear to be as conducive for development as previously forecasted.

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure could form in a day or so over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea. Any development of this system is
expected to slow to occur during the next several days while the
system moves slowly west-southwestward or westward across the
southwestern Caribbean Sea. Regardless of tropical cyclone
formation, areas of heavy rain are possible during the next several
days from Nicaragua southward across Central America and into
Colombia. These rains could cause new flooding concerns, especially
across previously inundated areas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

[ElectricStorm]

I doubt this develops

[underthwx]

I doubt this develops

Dropped to 20%...I hope that's a trend in the making...they don't need that down there for sure..

[cycloneye]

Drops to 10%.

A broad area of low pressure could form in a day or so over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea. Development, if any, of this system is
expected to slow to occur during the next several days while the
it moves slowly west-southwestward or westward across the
southwestern Caribbean Sea. Regardless of tropical cyclone
formation, areas of heavy rain are possible during the next several
days from Nicaragua southward across Central America and into
Colombia. These rains could cause new flooding concerns, especially
across previously inundated areas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[underthwx]

Drops to 10%.

A broad area of low pressure could form in a day or so over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea. Development, if any, of this system is
expected to slow to occur during the next several days while the
it moves slowly west-southwestward or westward across the
southwestern Caribbean Sea. Regardless of tropical cyclone
formation, areas of heavy rain are possible during the next several
days from Nicaragua southward across Central America and into
Colombia. These rains could cause new flooding concerns, especially
across previously inundated areas.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Excellent!... except for the potential for more rain for Nicaragua...

[underthwx]

7 pm NHC states a broad low has formed... However the low is at 10% thru 5 days chance of development...which is good news..the low unfortunately, may bring more rainfall, to already twice-stricken areas of Nicaragua potentially...I hope and pray that will not occur...

[CourierPR]

7 pm NHC states a broad low has formed... However the low is at 10% thru 5 days chance of development...which is good news..the low unfortunately, may bring more rainfall, to already twice-stricken areas of Nicaragua potentially...I hope and pray that will not occur...

i

Given that this is 2020, the fact that a low has formed already doesn't seem like good news. Things could still happen in this insane season.