Surface Trough East of Florida (Is Invest 90L)

[TheStormExpert]

Levi Cowan with Tropical Tidbits is not too sure about development.

@TropicalTidbits: Subtropical development depends on sharpness/tilt of upper trough. Model trend since April 28 is less favorable: http://t.co/pCpqlIfaJ6

http://i61.tinypic.com/4r3gc3.jpg

http://i59.tinypic.com/2e0k5sj.jpg

[fendie]

not understanding why this is its own thread. This is purely a modelcane at this point. Not even a disturbance is present

Perhaps because this is a forum where weather enthusiasts of diverse backgrounds discuss potential storms even if there is not currently a disturbance. Would be boring for me to only track disturbances that have already formed. Then again I am not a professional meteorologist and must rely on your scorn to know what bears watching.

[OuterBanker]

Starting to agree with Alyono. But there's not much going on anyway.

Different between 0z and 12z rather pronounced.

Note changes between 9:35am and 3:35 pm local discuss:
THURSDAY AND BEYOND...THE 01/12Z DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO INDICATE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST BUT CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT DIFFERENCES ON THE TRACK
WITH THE GFS MEANDERING THE LOW OFFSHORE BEFORE MOVING IT WELL OUT
TO SEA LATE NEXT WEEKEND. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER TO DEVELOP THIS SYSTEM
AND BRINGS A WEAKER LOW LOW CLOSER TO THE COAST LATE NEXT WEEK.
WHATEVER THE EVENTUAL EXACT TRACK, AT LEAST MINIMAL COASTAL IMPACTS
WRT TO HIGH SURF/COASTAL FLOODING/SURF ZONE HAZARDS COULD BE
EXPECTED.

[OuterBanker]

12z Canadian still scraping the NC coast. Question, has the crazy Canadian ever been right?

[fci]

I'm not sure why there is any controversy at all to have a separate thread in a "Talking Tropics" Forum!
This isn't like questioning why an Invest or TD was declared; it's s thread in a forum.
No cost to opening a thread and wading through the 400+ Models page is a bit tedious.

[OuterBanker]

I'm not sure why there is any controversy at all to have a separate thread in a "Talking Tropics" Forum!
This isn't like questioning why an Invest or TD was declared; it's s thread in a forum.
No cost to opening a thread and wading through the 400+ Models page is a bit tedious.

You're right fci. This is not a thread under an active invest or storms.

[RL3AO]

Lets end the discussion about the thread's existence. Staff is allowing the thread to stay (for now), but please keep discussion on topic.

[TheStormExpert]

I'm guessing development chances have gone down a bit.

[wxman57]

:uarrow: I'm guessing development chances have gone down a bit.

No, I wouldn't say so. I'd still say 40% it gets classified by the NHC as either subtropical or tropical. Winds will probably be in the 30-45 mph range by next Friday. Probably 80% or more that some type of low forms there.

[gatorcane]

Will the NHC provide a 5-day development chances graphic like they do during the hurricane season? If so, I would expect them to shade an area near or just north of the Bahamas within the next couple of days.

[vbhoutex]

Staff has been discussing the fact that this is a separate "model storm" thread, ie it is not in the Global Models forum where we normally require discussions concerning the models and what they are showing to be.
We have decided that since we are not into the official Hurricane Season yet that we will allow this thread to continue. However after June 1 we will be enforcing the normal rule we have concerning these types of threads. If you have any questions or comments please feel free to contact a staff member concerning it. Please do not continue discussions concerning the rule in this thread. Let's keep it to discussion of this possible system.

[tolakram]

12Z Model runs









source: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

Also be sure the check out tcgen: http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/

[tolakram]

The front is already there and most models (amateur reading here) show a disturbance riding up the front starting tomorrow and developing at day 3 or 4.

Live Visible Loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-75&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5&mapcolor=yellow

[northjaxpro]

You can clearly see the blocking pattern in the model runs as the potential system is just meandering off the SE U.S. Atlantic coast. This system may be around for quite awhile.

[gatorcane]

00Z model support looks strong and in excellent agreement for a system starting to form around 4-5 days from now near or just north of the Bahamas. GEM and NAVGEM have the system too. Can't get much better model support than what we have now. I would put the development chances at around 60% or even higher at this point.

00Z ECMWF, 168 hours (though system starts forming around 120 hours near the Bahamas):


00Z GFS, 114 hours:


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[wxman57]

Will the NHC provide a 5-day development chances graphic like they do during the hurricane season? If so, I would expect them to shade an area near or just north of the Bahamas within the next couple of days.

I'm sure that the forecasters at the NHC are aware of the model projections and they are talking amongst themselves about the best course of action. Given that the possible development is 5-6 days off, and there doesn't appear to be any big threat to coastal areas, I suspect they'll elect to wait and see how things progress over the next 2-3 days. They'll probably initiate a special outlook 1-2 days before development, assuming there is still good model agreement.

[gatorcane]

Sat loop showing what I think the models are picking up on as the catalyst for development next week. Look at the swirl over the Central Gulf heading east:

[northjaxpro]

Yes, that is the upper level shortwave that will likely interact with the old frontal boundary stalled out over the Florida Straits currently in the next couple of days. This will probably get the process kicked off with the genesis of the Low Pressure area in the Bahamas or near there early next week.

[gatorcane]

Thanks for confirming northjaxpro. 12Z GFS gets this system down to 995MB on the High-res GFS and has this system making a hard left and a cyclonic loop, getting very close to the SE US coastline near GA/SC. Second graphic shows the blocking ridge over the Great Lakes which gradually slides over the Northeast United States, preventing a quick recurve:

138 Hour graphic below:


500MB height anomaly, 120 hours:

[northjaxpro]

Yeah, I posted about this above and this scenario is definitely a plausible one. The blocking pattern looks to hold firm through most of next week, and there really is nothing coming down stream at least in the 5-7 day period to kick this system out to sea in my view. This potential Low Pressure system could meander around for days or even drift back toward the SE US coast by this time next week.