NE GOM.....

[Nimbus]

Mid gulf buoy reported a drop in surface pressure too 1012.5 mb's.
Wind is from the WSW consistent with a location south of the trough.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001

The whole area is sagging south and the end of the trough is just west of mid gulf (judging from the southern wind flow)

[Frank P]

Cluster of T-storms have been hanging around in the mid GOM for the better part of 4-5 days..... nothing else to look at right now...

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Well our nws office did say this in the afternoon discussion. Don't know if it has anything to do with it or not. Of course with everything this year will believe it when I see it

LONG TERM...COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
AND EVENTUALLY RETREAT NORTHWARD BACK INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE WEEKEND. A WEAK DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL
ALLOW FOR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO FORM ALONG THE STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE GULF COAST. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY STILL
REMAINS AS THE EURO HAS A SURFACE LOW RIDING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
FRONT AND EVENTUALLY MARCHING INLAND...FOLLOWING THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER NORTHWARD BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS IS SHOWING A MORE OPEN
WAVE WITH MOISTURE RAPIDLY RETURNING NORTHWARD BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-10.

[JKingTampa]

Tampa Bay AFD.


&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT-MONDAY)...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY. STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS THE PENINSULA AS DEEP MOISTURE
AND UPPER ENERGY LINGER OVER THE STATE THROUGH SATURDAY. UPPER
RIDGING WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE STATE LATER SATURDAY WITH SOME
DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA. WEAK RIDGING WILL THEN BE IN PLACE
ACROSS THE AREA AS A TROUGH/AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO THE
NORTH OR WEST OF THE AREA FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE LOCATION OF
THIS DEVELOPING FEATURE IS QUITE DIFFERENT BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF
AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. GENERALLY
EASTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY. WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE S/SE WITH
THE TROUGH IN PLACE TO THE NORTH OR WEST...BUT THIS WILL BE ADJUSTED
AS THE LOCATION OF THE TROUGH BECOMES BETTER RESOLVED. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 FOR HIGHS...AND IN THE UPPER 60S
TO MID 70S FOR LOWS EACH DAY.