East of tobago

[hurricanes1234]

Oh no! When was it a TD? Is it still a TD? I wouldn't like to know that I missed saving a visible or infrared unenhanced image of him!

[euro6208]

it was never a TD

[TheEuropean]

it was never a TD

Why not?

[Hurricaneman]

it was never a TD

who knows but this is a good candidate for reanalysis and would probably be added to the database as a tropical storm based on the radar alone and honestly this was one of the better systems this year which is pretty sad


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[AJC3]

it was never a TD

who knows but this is a good candidate for reanalysis and would probably be added to the database as a tropical storm based on the radar alone and honestly this was one of the better systems this year which is pretty sad


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

I'm pretty doubtful about any post season upgrade for this. Unless the 0.5 BVEL (base velocity) data from Barbados was extremely compelling (i.e strong enough and sufficiently close to the surface) enough to indicate TS force surface winds, radar data alone wouldn't be used for discerning a TD versus a low end TS, and, of course, a depression is never going to be added to the database post-season.

Based on the satellite imagery and scatterometer data, this system has two things working against it being added to the database.

The first, is the persistence of central convection. This is a subjective metric, but it is clear throughout it's brief existence as a 'tropical entity', the system never got past the bursting phase - the convection would completely collapse at times during Dmin (daylight in this case), leaving a "naked" LLC.

The second is scatterometer data, which doesn't give compelling evidence that the circulation ever reached TS force/35kt. Granted, the (clearly closed) low level circulation was small, which would lead to difficulty in the instrumentation resolving true wind speeds. However, one can't make that leap of faith without evidence compelling one to do so.

So what we're left with is a small, well-defined, clearly closed, LLC that reached 25-30kt and had a bursting convective pattern. You could argue the point that there may have been a small area of TS force winds somewhere in there, but given the lack of clear, convincing evidence of that, and given the fact that this leap of faith would only give you a oh-so-brief 35 kt TS, this system will very likely never wind up on the record books.

If anyone knows of any radar data or ship reports that show otherwise, please post the data as I am unaware that there is any. Thanks.

[euro6208]

it was never a TD

Why not?

I'm just basing it on NHC's decision to not upgrade operationally but who knows, it might get upgraded postseason...