INCREDIBLY DRY AIR OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC

[Hurricaneman]

Just look at how dry this is, and compare it to the first picture on this thread. How much drier can it really get?



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I wonder what is the humidity in the black area.

-numbers but in reality has to be less than 10%

[Yellow Evan]

Just look at how dry this is, and compare it to the first picture on this thread. How much drier can it really get?

http://img844.imageshack.us/img844/2349/nwpu.jpg

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I wonder what is the humidity in the black area.

-numbers but in reality has to be less than 10%

Not a whole lot different from the typical June NV day then.

But for the ocean, that's super dry.

[supercane4867]

These dry air may not be at the surface
GFS initial 2m RH for this area were in the 70-90% range

[Cyclenall]

Just look at how dry this is, and compare it to the first picture on this thread. How much drier can it really get?

http://img844.imageshack.us/img844/2349/nwpu.jpg

What the? Your right, that is the most dry air of that type I've ever seen in 8 years. That is ridiculous is a great way to put it. Something might be up here. Its unusual just to see a little bit of black. I don't know what level that product is taken at but what would be good is a automated system to keep track of the intensity and spread of RH values and know which snapshot was the worst and driest. I guess we can all start tracking dry air outbreaks for real now .

It's been extremely humid and hot here in Hawaii. Not sure if there is a correlation.

It is, IMO everything is correlated in some way whether nearly too small to matter or completely tied. I think there is an equilibrium in play here, the amount of moisture and rain in that gyre over Mexico that spawned those TCs had an insane amount of moisture and guess what, right by there is a polar opposite! I always see this type of thing. I think what is most fascinating to me personally would be situations where there is NO equilibrium either seen or unseen.

[hurricanes1234]

Finally, it is starting to show some signs of moistening up. The black spot is no longer huge and monstrous, but now separated into three smaller black spots, surrounded by browns instead. And also, thunderstorms are now beginning to develop in the ITCZ. Will this eventually moisten up enough to support a westward moving tropical cyclone like Henriette this year?



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[Yellow Evan]

Finally, it is starting to show some signs of moistening up. The black spot is no longer huge and monstrous, but now separated into three smaller black spots, surrounded by browns instead. And also, thunderstorms are now beginning to develop in the ITCZ. Will this eventually moisten up enough to support a westward moving tropical cyclone like Henriette this year?



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I think we're done with westward tracks. And it's still super dry.

[Cyclenall]

Will this eventually moisten up enough to support a westward moving tropical cyclone like Henriette this year?

No. There isn't a ice cube's chance in hell anything will even remotely develop over there and extremely likely for the rest of the season.

[hurricanes1234]

Much moister than a couple of days ago. There aren't much blacks remaining and the ITCZ continues to improve with more thunderstorms. I am unusually optimistic here, that this will eventually moisten up enough to support a tropical cyclone of some sort before the season ends. It has been steadily becoming less dry since yesterday, and as I've mentioned, there are now showers along the ITCZ, something that wasn't there just 2 days ago.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

Much moister than a couple of days ago. There aren't much blacks remaining and the ITCZ continues to improve with more thunderstorms. I am unusually optimistic here, that this will eventually moisten up enough to support a tropical cyclone of some sort before the season ends. It has been steadily becoming less dry since yesterday, and as I've mentioned, there are now showers along the ITCZ, something that wasn't there just 2 days ago.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

It's still really dry. And MJO is in the WPAC, not the EPAC.

[hurricanes1234]

When will it migrate to the ePac?

[CrazyC83]

What will this mean for the Southern Hemisphere in 2013-14 I wonder? I know we don't talk a lot about it, but could that be where the action is or are we in a global suppression?

[Kingarabian]

Hurricane1234, I love your optimism, but the EPAC had trouble generating storms this year with far less dry air than that.

[hurricanes1234]

Hurricane1234, I love your optimism, but the EPAC had trouble generating storms this year with far less dry air than that.

Thanks, I am not usually this optimistic.

But no, I really think there will be a storm here very soon, I'm already seeing an increasing area of convection south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. As dried up and boring as this season has been so far, there could still be AT LEAST one intense hurricane that tracks out to sea harmlessly. 2012's significant fish was Emilia, 2011's was Eugene and Kenneth, 2010's was Celia. And Kenneth occurred in November. So I don't know if it's from longing for a fish storm, but this year will go down in my book as one of the least active years, if we make it to the official end of the season without one major hurricane, or one other storm above 105 mph. Even though 2003 had 0 major hurricanes, they still had either two or three Category 2s by the season's end.

I do apologise for my crazy words, but I am feeling a surge of that "something's about to come". And to crown it all, I am seeing an increase in moisture in the basin. If unclear, just look at the Eastern East Pacific imagery, or just the simple east Pacific imagery, and you will see new thunderstorms along the ITCZ that were non-existent earlier this week.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[hurricanes1234]

The NHC also mentions this increase in convection. Maybe air is moistening up for good.

E-W ORIENTED RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 33N FROM HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 155W TO 125W. WEAK RIDGING AND LIGHT PRES GRADIENT PREVAILS OVER NW PORTION N OF 20N W OF 120W. CONVERGENCE ZONE STRETCHES ALONG 10N W OF 100W WITH LITTLE/NO CONVECTION EXCEPT FOR SMALL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS SPACED ABOUT 300 NM APART NEAR 113W 118W 123W AND 128W. CONVECTION E OF 100W HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE NW OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA FALTERS A BIT IN THE DEEP TROPICS. TIGHTER PRES GRADIENT N OF 30N ALLOWING NLY WINDS TO INCREASE...WITH SEAS TO 8-9 FT NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA. A WEAK PRES PATTERN WILL PERSIST ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE W OF N CALIFORNIA TONIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT. NW SWELL FROM THIS FRONT WILL INCREASE SEAS TO 8-10 FT N OF 28N W OF 125W MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. BUILDING HIGH PRES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU...PRODUCING STRONG N-NW WINDS N OF THE AREA ALLOWING NW SWELL TO BUILD TO 10-12 FT E OF 120W NEAR BAJA.

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[Cyclenall]

What will this mean for the Southern Hemisphere in 2013-14 I wonder? I know we don't talk a lot about it, but could that be where the action is or are we in a global suppression?

The Southern Hemisphere has been pathetic for years and years now, that's why no one is talking about them right now. We wouldn't know the difference unless ACE goes way down as well this upcoming season. Would be funny to see the south Atlantic have all the activity this northern Atlantic was suppose to have this winter . Talk about turning tropical science on its head.

[Yellow Evan]

What will this mean for the Southern Hemisphere in 2013-14 I wonder? I know we don't talk a lot about it, but could that be where the action is or are we in a global suppression?

I have a feeling it'll be a repeat of last several years. Active SWIO and/or SPAC, everywhere else little storm activity.

[hurricanes1234]

What will this mean for the Southern Hemisphere in 2013-14 I wonder? I know we don't talk a lot about it, but could that be where the action is or are we in a global suppression?

I have a feeling it'll be a repeat of last several years. Active SWIO and/or SPAC, everywhere else little storm activity.

The ePac was actually quite active last year, it featured 5 major hurricanes, including one rare Category 3 in May. In July, three hurricanes formed in an 8 day period, two of which were officially major hurricanes, and the other, Fabio, whose peak strength is debated, as it could have briefly been a Category 3. The rest of the season remained average, with two more major hurricanes forming. The season's last storm ended at 'R', which meant that there were more than 15 named storms in total, quite a bit more than 2011, which saw 11 named storms, even though 2011 had more powerful storms. However, this year had 0 major hurricanes, as of late September, but by this time last year, we already had 3 major hurricanes, and I believe Miriam was around by now. Our ACE so far is very, very low. I am not saying that October won't have any activity, but we must be running at record low ACE levels right now, considering this basin is the second most active on the planet, yet most of the storms remained minimal tropical storms or only marginal hurricanes, passing 85 mph only once (Henriette).

As for the dry air, I am still seeing slight improvements, as there are only few black spots remaining, and the ITCZ is intensifying somewhat.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

What will this mean for the Southern Hemisphere in 2013-14 I wonder? I know we don't talk a lot about it, but could that be where the action is or are we in a global suppression?

I have a feeling it'll be a repeat of last several years. Active SWIO and/or SPAC, everywhere else little storm activity.

The ePac was actually quite active last year, it featured 5 major hurricanes, including one rare Category 3 in May. In July, three hurricanes formed in an 8 day period, two of which were officially major hurricanes, and the other, Fabio, whose peak strength is debated, as it could have briefly been a Category 3. The rest of the season remained average, with two more major hurricanes forming. The season's last storm ended at 'R', which meant that there were more than 15 named storms in total, quite a bit more than 2011, which saw 11 named storms, even though 2011 had more powerful storms. However, this year had 0 major hurricanes, as of late September, but by this time last year, we already had 3 major hurricanes, and I believe Miriam was around by now. Our ACE so far is very, very low. I am not saying that October won't have any activity, but we must be running at record low ACE levels right now, considering this basin is the second most active on the planet, yet most of the storms remained minimal tropical storms or only marginal hurricanes, passing 85 mph only once (Henriette).

As for the dry air, I am still seeing slight improvements, as there are only few black spots remaining, and the ITCZ is intensifying somewhat.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Read what I said. I said SPAC not EPAC

Regarding the EPAC istelf, it's still has a lot of dry air.

As for 2012 PHS, it got to 17 storms, it was a pretty decent season overall. Nothing mind-blowing IMO, but it got everything your pretty much want. Back to 2013, ACE-wise we are nowhere near 1977 PHS and we're tied with 2010 PHS with 49 ACE units.

[hurricanes1234]

I don't know about anyone else, but the air is certainly moistening up.

[hurricanes1234]

Just look at this. Look at the robust ITCZ, and the now moister air to the north of it. There are no more blacks, and the browns are getting darker and darker. Could this be the start of a favourable MJO pattern?



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.