Mid to late week subtropical/hybrid off east coast?

[Aric Dunn]

take a look the are there looking pretty subtropical atm

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

If you don't count the surface frontal (low level baroclinic) zone that the low is embedded in.

It still may ideas of transitioning, however time and location are not on it's side.

yeah I noticed it attached however the NHC has many times when such features are present with ares that might threaten land have upgraded. besides definitions are ambiguous anyway.. if they did a temp profile and it was warm core then well its warm core. lol

I mearly used the term subtropical because it was attached to the frontal boundary.

[AJC3]

take a look the are there looking pretty subtropical atm

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

If you don't count the surface frontal (low level baroclinic) zone that the low is embedded in.

It still may ideas of transitioning, however time and location are not on it's side.

yeah I noticed it attached however the NHC has many times when such features are present with ares that might threaten land have upgraded. besides definitions are ambiguous anyway.. if they did a temp profile and it was warm core then well its warm core. lol

I mearly used the term subtropical because it was attached to the frontal boundary.

However, subtropical is, by definition, non-frontal. While there is some popcorn type convection near the center, the main convective area is in the form of a frontal looking band. Moreover, that stable air pouring into the backside of the storm is only going to continue, if not become even worse, when you consider the SST's underneath the source region are in the lower 60s.

[Aric Dunn]

If you don't count the surface frontal (low level baroclinic) zone that the low is embedded in.

It still may ideas of transitioning, however time and location are not on it's side.

yeah I noticed it attached however the NHC has many times when such features are present with ares that might threaten land have upgraded. besides definitions are ambiguous anyway.. if they did a temp profile and it was warm core then well its warm core. lol

I mearly used the term subtropical because it was attached to the frontal boundary.

However, subtropical is, by definition, non-frontal. While there is some popcorn type convection near the center, the main convective area is in the form of a frontal looking band. Moreover, that stable air pouring into the backside of the storm is only going to continue, if not become even worse, when you consider the SST's underneath the source region are in the lower 60s.

Agreed. what little time it had is passing had it dropped further se before turning it may have had a better shot.

[CrazyC83]

It looks pretty good, but indeed it is attached to a front. Needs to get away from that frontal zone. It is sitting over 80 degree water though, so it might have a shot, especially if it starts moving more southeast.

[AJC3]

It looks pretty good, but indeed it is attached to a front. Needs to get away from that frontal zone. It is sitting over 80 degree water though, so it might have a shot, especially if it starts moving more southeast.

It would have to do that, or stay on an ENE track and tightope the north wall of the GS whilst fighting off the stable air that the circ is pulling in from the NW (which is maintaining/reinforcing the baroclinic/frontal zone). However, all of the model guidance is doing the exact opposite, turning the low NE and then NNE over the next couple days.

Get out the fork...

[CrazyC83]

It's the best looking feature out there at 41N 65W...it seems to be trying to detatch from the front to the northeast at least...SST's are marginal though as it is on the northern wall of the Gulf Stream...

[CrazyC83]

I'm looking at the thermal comparison: there isn't that much difference; air temperatures at the surface pretty consistent throughout, with ships reporting winds up near 30 kt. The 1500Z ASCAT pass showed winds near tropical storm force, and pretty close to the center too - so a rather small RMW.

Based on the 1800Z GFS model (most recent), there is no temperature gradient at 700mb or 850mb. Finally, the phase analysis shows it as modestly warm core.

The unnamed storm in 2006 wasn't much different.

[CrazyC83]

39.8N 65.2W. Doesn't look frontal on satellite either.

[CrazyC83]

Looking even better by the hour, convection wrapped around about 80% of the way now.

[Hammy]

If it persists I wonder if it could get a post-analysis upgrade.

[CrazyC83]

If it persists I wonder if it could get a post-analysis upgrade.

I believe it could. I don't think the NHC is too interested due to the fact it is in such high latitudes and likely to enter cooler water. But it is the best looking system by far out there.

[CrazyC83]

About 9 hours old but most convincing data yet with tropical storm force winds confirmed. Convection has increased greatly since 1800Z as well.

[ninel conde]

which low is this about, the one at 42n 63w or the one off virginia with the most convection of anything this season. evidence of banding and organization.

[tolakram]

which low is this about, the one at 42n 63w or the one off virginia with the most convection of anything this season. evidence of banding and organization.

Hmmm, good question. Might be about both. I'll re-open yours.

[ninel conde]

thanks, meanwhile im baffled NHC isnt classifying the low at 42n 63w. sure its over cool water and far north, but its at the very least subtropical.

[Aric Dunn]

the one off the outer banks is a much better candidate ...

[ninel conde]

the one off the outer banks is a much better candidate ...

yea, i have a thread about it, but this one should be classified. ive seen nhc classify far worse looking ones.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

WOCN11 CWHX 291038
Special weather statement issued by Environment Canada at 7:38 AM ADT
Thursday 29 August 2013.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Special weather statement for:
=new= Antigonish County
=new= Guysborough County
=new= Cape Breton.

Potential for significant rainfall.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==discussion==
A low pressure system currently south of Nova Scotia will bring rain
to the region beginning this morning as the system slowly tracks
northeastward to lie just south of Cape Breton by Friday morning.

Should deviations in the systems track or intensity occur, rainfall
warnings for the above mentioned regions may be required.

The public is advised to monitor future forecasts and warnings as
warnings may be required or extended.

Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment
Canada at http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca

End

http://weather.gc.ca/warnings/SWS_bulletins_e.html?prov=ns

[MGC]

The one off NC looks to have potential.....MGC

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I'm now following these systems on my weather blog. I will update roughly every six hours, or sooner if the situation requires -

http://hybridstorm-weatherblog.blogspot.ca/