Should the Saffir-Simpson Scale Be Abandoned?

[tolakram]

I'm, on board with the first suggestion, but I disagree with not using a scale since people respond so well to a number. I have to respect what Read says though, and anyone else who has real experience with warnings and the reactions of people in the warned area.

from the article:

What's next?

Heller believes he has a solution to the problem. He says the National Hurricane Center should rank hurricanes based on wind speed and/or storm surge - whichever is greater. In such a case, he notes, Hurricane Ike would have been a Category 4 hurricane based upon storm surge.

Heller is pushing the idea among key hurricane forecasters.

It's an idea that doesn't go far enough, Read said. He believes forecasters should make a concerted move away from the scale altogether.

"I am on the side that wants to downplay the scale and instead tell people what is going to happen,'' Read said.

"Forecast the impacts of wind, surge and rainfall and present in as many formats as necessary to get the word out. The holy grail to me is getting to the point where a homeowner can go online, enter his address, and get a readout what risk the various impending storm hazards are at his or her location.''

eric.berger@chron.com

[jinftl]

NHC discussion on this very topic just released this month (link to article below):

The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS) categorizes hurricanes only by wind speed. Tropical cyclones cannot be easily categorized by storm surge because the surge is not a characteristic of the storm alone, being also dependent on the shape and bathymetry of the affected coastline, the storm's forward motion, angle of approach, and so on. A hurricane striking the Gulf coast of Florida, for example, would cause a much greater surge than an identical storm striking Florida's Atlantic coast. This is why storm surge was formally removed from the original Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale in 2010.

A number of new and more complicated scales have been proposed over the past several years. Most, if not all of these, consider the combined effects of hurricane strength and size, or of wind and surge. However, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) does not believe that combined or integrated hurricane scales help local emergency managers or members of the public make informed decisions about their particular vulnerabilities.

Hurricanes pose a variety of hazards to life and property; these include strong winds, storm surge, heavy rains with inland flooding, and tornadoes. The relative risk among these hazards varies from storm to storm and place to place, with each threat requiring a different response. Combined scales tell users nothing about which hazard(s) are threatening them nor provide any guidance about an appropriate response. NHC believes that the clearest way to communicate each of the hurricane hazards is to do so directly and distinctly, and not to conflate them as the proposed integrated scales do.

NHC has recognized the importance of storm surge since our inception and has been a part of several significant advances in forecasting storm surge. Currently, the NHC is experimenting with two new approaches intended to help communities prepare for and respond to surge threats. The first is the application of a Storm Surge Warning, which would be issued by the National Weather Service to highlight exclusively the expectation of life-threatening surge. The second is an easy-to-understand high-resolution map showing the forecast inundation from storm surge. Both approaches are being developed with input from communications and social science experts to maximize the clarity and utility of the new products.

The new approaches to surge are being designed to reinforce instructions from local emergency managers. We cannot overstate the importance of following evacuation orders and other instructions from local officials, regardless of the category or strength of a tropical storm or hurricane. Ignoring evacuation orders risks not only the lives of those who stay behind, but also the lives of first responders who may be called upon to rescue them.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20120910_pa_surgeScale.pdf

[vbhoutex]

I like Tim Heller's thoughts also and think that a simple combination of his suggestions with short explanation of what can be expected from the winds and surge like Dr. Read suggests would be the best way to go. It wouldn't require reeducating the public and would be understandable by all imo.

I'm, on board with the first suggestion, but I disagree with not using a scale since people respond so well to a number. I have to respect what Read says though, and anyone else who has real experience with warnings and the reactions of people in the warned area

from the article:

What's next?

Heller believes he has a solution to the problem. He says the National Hurricane Center should rank hurricanes based on wind speed and/or storm surge - whichever is greater. In such a case, he notes, Hurricane Ike would have been a Category 4 hurricane based upon storm surge.

Heller is pushing the idea among key hurricane forecasters.

It's an idea that doesn't go far enough, Read said. He believes forecasters should make a concerted move away from the scale altogether.

"I am on the side that wants to downplay the scale and instead tell people what is going to happen,'' Read said.

"Forecast the impacts of wind, surge and rainfall and present in as many formats as necessary to get the word out. The holy grail to me is getting to the point where a homeowner can go online, enter his address, and get a readout what risk the various impending storm hazards are at his or her location.''

eric.berger@chron.com

[brunota2003]

Okay, but what about the systems that produce a lot of flooding, but are weak? Like Allison? Just a TS, surge would most likely be little to none, but flooding was horrific. Would it still be ranked a TS?

[jinftl]

Yes, if we use the SS scale after 2010 only as a reference to the wind of the system as the NHC has done. A tropical storm is a system with sustained winds of 39-73 mph. That's it. The rainfall threat would have to be handled through Flood Warnings and as the NHC is suggesting, they may move towards Storm Surge Warnings for surge. A tropical storm could have 40" of rain to unleash like Alison or could produce a 12' surge in an area that is prone to surge given topography, slope of shelf, etc etc. Same system could produce a 2' surge in Miami.

S-S scale is for wind only per the NHC. For Isaac, the NHC went as far as to cite the surge threat to the coast while Isaac was 'just a t.s.' given the location he was going to impact. They are detailing the forecast surge ranges with much more detail and with the probability of surge of a certain height graphics too. Local media and local officials are not uniformly doing the same as many news reports with Isaac talked of the surge of a t.s. We read the NHC discussions and advisories. 99.5% of the public does not. They listen to their local news. That is where the focus needs to be to get folks prepared.


TROPICAL STORM ISAAC ADVISORY NUMBER 26...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1000 AM CDT MON AUG 27 2012


...ISAAC MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...POSES SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE THREAT TO THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF A STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL
CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING
WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING DEPTHS ABOVE GROUND IF
THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

* SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA...6 TO 12 FT
* SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA...3 TO 6 FT
* FLORIDA PANHANDLE...3 TO 6 FT
* FLORIDA WEST COAST INCLUDING APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT

THE DEEPEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING
OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT
DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE SEE
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. NEAR THE
COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES.

Okay, but what about the systems that produce a lot of flooding, but are weak? Like Allison? Just a TS, surge would most likely be little to none, but flooding was horrific. Would it still be ranked a TS?

[brunota2003]

I was referring to the Tim Heller thing, where it would be ranked on either surge or winds, whichever is higher. There are other factors than just those two. And like it or not, inland flooding is the #1 killer with tropical cyclones, on average.

[WeatherGuesser]

Yes, if we use the SS scale after 2010 only as a reference to the wind of the system as the NHC has done.

All well and good, but that's not the point of this thread.

Using the criteria mentioned in the article(s), would Alison still have been a TS, or how would the ranking and watches/warnings have been different?

[Kingarabian]

How about when the storm is about to make landfall in your area, always expect the worse and be fully prepared for anything?

People should be educated to take everything seriously.

It's going to be hard to scale storms if low end tropical storms can do more or as much damage than a Hurricane.

[Florida1118]

If you modify the scale, you kinda mess up records dont you? All past storms have been measured by winds- changing it would be kinda weird.

[brunota2003]

If you modify the scale, you kinda mess up records dont you? All past storms have been measured by winds- changing it would be kinda weird.

Unless you do something similar to what I proposed. While out to sea, go by the Category on the SSHWS, and for the TCR, list it by the wind category.

[WeatherGuesser]

Records are far, far less important that giving people understandable information on current systems that may affect them.

[vbhoutex]

Okay, but what about the systems that produce a lot of flooding, but are weak? Like Allison? Just a TS, surge would most likely be little to none, but flooding was horrific. Would it still be ranked a TS?

If the winds supported it of course it would still be a TS. The inland flooding is a product of the rainfall more than surge even though surge can affect it in the coastal areas or areas close to the coast like Houston. When Allison unleashed her worst rains she was rated a TD. Should there be a rating for rainfall? Not sure I think so since it is usually addressed in any statements issued by the NHC and local NWS offices. My biggest concern is that I feel some changes need to be made to better convey to a normally complacent public what kind of danger they are in from any type of TC. Like it or not MOST of the public is not nearly in tune with what is happening with a storm like we(weather weenies)are. They want to know if there is going to be a TC, how high the wind will be, if they need to evacuate due to surge, and how much rain they will get. Past that they don't care about much else related to TCs. KISS is the way to go while conveying the most important information.

[Florida1118]

Records are far, far less important that giving people understandable information on current systems that may affect them.

I think the information people have no is VERy understandable. The fact the don't bother to look now make me believe a change in the scale wont do much of anything.

[brunota2003]

Okay, but what about the systems that produce a lot of flooding, but are weak? Like Allison? Just a TS, surge would most likely be little to none, but flooding was horrific. Would it still be ranked a TS?

If the winds supported it of course it would still be a TS. The inland flooding is a product of the rainfall more than surge even though surge can affect it in the coastal areas or areas close to the coast like Houston. When Allison unleashed her worst rains she was rated a TD. Should there be a rating for rainfall? Not sure I think so since it is usually addressed in any statements issued by the NHC and local NWS offices. My biggest concern is that I feel some changes need to be made to better convey to a normally complacent public what kind of danger they are in from any type of TC. Like it or not MOST of the public is not nearly in tune with what is happening with a storm like we(weather weenies)are. They want to know if there is going to be a TC, how high the wind will be, if they need to evacuate due to surge, and how much rain they will get. Past that they don't care about much else related to TCs. KISS is the way to go while conveying the most important information.

I think a big part of the problem is the media. They love to overhype every little thing the possibly can, an don't explain that most areas only saw 40 to 50 mph winds, so the public assumes they really saw the worst/"I survived the hurricane" mentality. Same with storm surge. They assume it was a 10 or 15 foot surge, when really they only saw 4 or 5 feet. So next time, when they are highlighted in 15 feet, they are shocked when it is "so much higher than it should have been". No it wasn't, it was right where it was forecast to be.

The media needs to not overhype every system, and likewise, they need to stop going "it's just a TS/Cat 1" or "it's just going to be a little bit of wind/rain". Instead, they need to take time educating the public while on the air. People need to start learning that just because they were in the outer bands doesn't mean they survived a Cat 1, or even saw TS force winds.

[WeatherGuesser]

The media needs to not overhype every system,

We can't even get people on this board to stop doing that. I've seen several disaster mongers show up this season. Every other post they make is 'It's gonna be a Cat 7 and wipe everything off Florida from Miami to Tallahassee and leave it a bare sandbar!!!!'

[Kingarabian]

Speaking of the media, I hate how once a storm becomes a hurricane the media screams "HURRICANE ISAAC HAS FORMED". I mean tropical low's magically become hurricanes without becoming a depression or a tropical storm first, right?

[WeatherGuesser]

This subject may be picking up more steam......

Hurricane Isaac, which recently clobbered New Orleans, added more weight to the argument many scientists and forecasters have been making that the current 1-5 Saff-Simpson scale, which rates hurricanes on the strength of their winds, doesn't accurately warn people of a storm's effects.

People misuse the scale, thinking they can safely ride out weaker hurricanes. Isaac was a Category 1. Hurricane Ike was a 2, same as Gustav (which you have probably forgotten). See the problem?

http://www.beaumontenterprise.com/news/ ... 867374.php

Climate Central

By Andrew Freedman When they strike land, hurricanes bring a slew of threats ashore, from strong winds to flooding rains. The deadliest weapon in a hurricane's arsenal is its storm surge, the wall of ocean water that the storm's winds and very low air ...

http://www.climatecentral.org/news/hurr ... ings-15002

(I don't know what Climate Central is and the full page wouldn't load for me. The snippet quoted is what displayed on the Google News page).

In the wake of Isaac, there have been numerous calls in the media, from weather bloggers to the New York Times, for an overhaul of the familiar Saffir-Simpson scale, which ranks storms on the strength of winds alone, from Cat 1 to Cat 5.

One pointed criticism of the NHC, which occupies a bunker-like building bristling with satellite dishes and antennas at the western edge of Florida International University’s main campus in West Miami-Dade County, came from a former colleague at the Weather Channel, hurricane expert Bryan Norcross.

“The NHC’s system for disseminating the forecast is archaic and relies on the media to sort it out and get it right,” Norcross wrote in a blog post last week. The center and local National Weather Service offices produce excellent and accurate forecasts, Norcross wrote, but the torrents of information can be difficult for even trained meteorologists to digest.

Norcross said the NHC’s official advisory — posted online in an all-capital-letters format resembling an old teletype dispatch — buried the critical storm surge forecast for Isaac at the bottom of the text. He argued it should have been the headline and written in plainer language. Many media outlets were complicit in downplaying Isaac as “only a tropical storm,’’ wrote Norcross

http://www.miamiherald.com/2012/09/15/3 ... -post.html

[Frank2]

I'd have to agree - it's 50 years old and as others said only concerns itself with wind speed, not storm surge, so perhaps it's time for at least a modified Saffir/Simpson/Jarvinen scale (Brian Jarvinen of the NHC was the person who developed the SLOSH model during the 1980's), and would more accurately alert the public of possible wind and flood damage...

Frank

[WeatherGuesser]

so perhaps it's time for at least a modified Saffir/Simpson/Jarvinen scale (Brian Jarvinen of the NHC was the person who developed the SLOSH model during the 1980's)

Totally opposed to anything containing people's names.

And that includes the Fujita scale.

[Frank2]

Why? I worked there when he spent countless hours working on the model and wrote many a journal paper for critical review, so why not give him credit? In science that's how it's often done, though I'm sure everyone understands that while a scale is often given one person's name, that does not mean others also contributed to it in many large and small ways...

Dr. Fujita was a pioneer in the science of torando wind damage assessment, and created the scale that bore his name, and the same was true for Drs. Saffir and Simpson when it came to hurricanes...