Favorite NHC Adv./Adv. Quote

[galaxy401]

Here is the newest advisory of Kirk.

KIRK IS NOT EXPECTED TO LIVE LONG AND PROSPER.

[Extratropical94]

Ana 2009, Discussion 22:
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS COMPLICATED BY THE UNCERTAIN EXISTENCE OF AN ACTUAL TROPICAL CYCLONE

Kyle 2002, Discussion 78:
OH...OH...OH...OH...STAYIN ALIVE...STAYIN ALIVE.

[TheEuropean]

What about a "pesky" storm?

TROPICAL STORM NADINE ADVISORY NUMBER 52
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142012
1100 AM AST TUE SEP 25 2012

...PESKY NADINE FORECAST TO TURN SOUTHWARD...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 30.0W
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM SSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

[Chickenzilla]

Nadine is starting to frustrate the NHC forecasters.

The new NHC forecast splits
the differences and shows little motion at day 5...although I fear
that Nadine will find a way to linger even longer over the
northeastern Atlantic.

[docjoe]

AFTER DEEPENING AT A RATE THAT BORDERED ON INSANE DURING THE
AFTERNOON...DENNIS HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN AT A MORE NORMAL
RATE THIS EVENING.

one of my favorites..just a few hours later it went right over my nieghborhood

[Fego]

NADINE HAS SPENT A LARGE PORTION OF ITS LIFE TRAPPED WITHIN A
BLOCKING PATTERN. HOWEVER...THE STORY DOES NOT END THERE...AND IT IS DEJA
VU ALL OVER AGAIN.... AVILA (FD #62)

[FLCrackerGirl]

Watching WILMA 2005 go from a TS to a CAT5 within a day was both spectacular & horrifying.
Here's some excerpts:


TROPICAL STORM WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005

... ... WILMA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME AN INTENSE HURRICANE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBEAN SEA...
TYPICAL OF THOSE HURRICANES WHICH COMMONLY OCCURRED IN OCTOBER DURING THE 30'S 40'S AND 50'S.
THIS IS NOTHING NEW.


------------

HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2005

WILMA HAS DEVELOPED THE DREADED PINHOLE EYE.


------------

HURRICANE WILMA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS TO UPDATE THE INITIAL AND THE FORECAST
INTENSITY OF WILMA. AN AIR FORCE PLANE JUST MEASURED 162 KNOTS AT
850 MB AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 901 MB IN A PINHOLE EYE.


------------

HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005

... ...
IN ADDITION TO THE SPECTACULAR CLOUD PATTERN OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
... AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED 168 KNOTS AT 700 MB
AND ESTIMATED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 884 MB EXTRAPOLATED FROM 700MB.
UNOFFICIALLY...THE METEOROLOGIST ON BOARD THE PLANE RELAYED AN
EXTRAPOLATED 881 MB PRESSURE AND MEASURED 884 MB WITH A DROPSONDE.
THIS IS ALL IN ASSOCIATION WITH A VERY SMALL EYE THAT HAS BEEN
OSCILLATING BETWEEN 2 AND 4 N MI DURING EYE PENETRATIONS. THIS IS
PROBABLY THE LOWEST MINIMUM PRESSURE EVER OBSERVED IN THE ATLANTIC
BASIN AND IS FOLLOWED BY THE 888 MB MINIMUM PRESSURE ASSOCIATED
WITH HURRICANE GILBERT IN 1988. ... ...

WILMA IS A CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE THAT IS MOVING OVER
VERY WARM WATERS...

[Kingarabian]

"THERE IS BASICALLY NOTHING NEW TO REPORT ON NADINE THIS EVENING."

[CrazyC83]

Makes me wonder about some crazy historic storms what the forecasters would have eventually said...imagine writing a discussion on Faith in 1966 when it was way up in the Faroe Islands if it was tropical as the BT says right now?

[brunota2003]

"...STUBBORN NADINE NOT ONLY SURVIVES BUT STRENGTHENS... "

[jinftl]

If you ever take a look at the archived advisories on the NHC site for storms from years ago, it is really interesting to see the difference between advisories then and now.

Here are some excerpts from the advisories on Hurricane Betsy as she was first off the coast of FL and the Carolinas and then as she made her move and was coming onshore extreme South Florida.


In the advisory below, Betsy is a Cat 3 storm 500 miles off the coast of South Carolina and is a little over 40 hours away from potentially making landfall there based on forecast for the heading and forward speed. Nowadays, this area would clearly be under a Hurricane Watch and possibly a Warning and evacuations would be underway or would soon be.

What did the NHC tell folks in 1965 - if you are going to the beach from North Florida to Cape Hatteras tomorrow, bring a radio with you (presumably to listen for storm alerts)!!!!





In this advisory, a hurricane warning is posted for South Florida and the Keys. In the advisory the NHC urges 'lumber yards and food stores to stay open the remainder of the day and evening'. Imagine the NHC suggesting that Home Depot and your local grocery chain stay open!!! The sentiment is the same in advisories now in terms of preparing for the storm, but the way it was stated 47 years ago was a bit different!




This last Betsy advisory excerpt is still kind of shocking each time I read it. Betsy was 80 miles offshore Miami Beach (western eyewall 60 miles away the NHC noted) and the NHC was forecasting sustained hurricane force winds would be onshore all areas along the coast of South Florida within an hour and a surge of up to 10 feet was expected....and the advice given to folks who may still be on Key Biscayne...a 1.3 sq mile island 4 miles offshore Miami with the heighest elevation being 3 feet above sea level.....along with those on Miami Beach (barrier island 6 miles east of downtown Miami) is to go to the 2nd floor or higher of a building!

There would be much more advanced warning to evacuate a day or 2 in advance now from such surge prone regions.

[KBBOCA]

In this advisory, a hurricane warning is posted for South Florida and the Keys. In the advisory the NHC urges 'lumber yards and food stores to stay open the remainder of the day and evening'. Imagine the NHC suggesting that Home Depot and your local grocery chain stay open!!!

I'm guessing by the date that the Betsy advisory that urged lumberyards and foodstores to open was on Labor Day, and thus most businesses would have been closed. But I've not gone back to verify this is indeed the case.

[brunota2003]

Ah Nadine...a future as a stunt pilot, you have?

...NADINE PERFORMING LOOP-THE-LOOPS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC...

[galaxy401]

From the latest advisory on Oscar.

OSCAR WOULD NOT WIN THE AWARD FOR BEST PICTURE ON SATELLITE IMAGES
THIS EVENING.

[CrazyC83]

I wish they had an Oscar the Grouch reference last night after Big Bird got the sudden attention...

[yzerfan]

The disco disco gets remembered best, but another one from Kyle:

TROPICAL STORM KYLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 58

HOW LONG WILL WE BE DEALING WITH KYLE. JUST FOR FUN...I NOTE THAT
THE LATEST LONG-RANGE RUN OF THE GFS HAS KYLE...ITS DECAYED REMNANTS
ACTUALLY...REACHING SOUTH FLORIDA JUST IN TIME FOR THE KICKOFF OF
THE MIAMI/FLORIDA STATE GAME...ONE WEEK FROM TOMORROW.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[Hammy]

first line of Mindy's final discussion in 2003

NANO NANO...NANO NANO...HEY HEY...GOODBYE.

[Hurricane_Luis]

...BYE BYE NADINE, WHAT A LONG STRANGE TRIP ITS BEEN...