Rest of season for NGOM

[StormClouds63]

Over and done with thankfully.

Agreed ... but we could use some rain ASAP. Cool, but dry, early Fall in SW LA.

[gatorcane]

The cold front scheduled for next week is huge!

It's over for the northern gom.

[ConvergenceZone]

Yea, I can't believe how lucky the US got this year...When you think about the large number of storms that formed this season, you would have thought for sure that one of those would have been a major hitting the USA... We need to count our blessings, because it's highly doubtful that the US will escape a major again next year...

I guess we need to thank the Tulls / Troughs / ULLs that kept the majors way out to sea......

[gatorcane]

Yea, I can't believe how lucky the US got this year...When you think about the large number of storms that formed this season, you would have thought for sure that one of those would have been a major hitting the USA... We need to count our blessings, because it's highly doubtful that the US will escape a major again next year...

I guess we need to thank the Tulls / Troughs / ULLs that kept the majors way out to sea......

True but don't forget the season is not over for south florida

[ConvergenceZone]

Yea, I can't believe how lucky the US got this year...When you think about the large number of storms that formed this season, you would have thought for sure that one of those would have been a major hitting the USA... We need to count our blessings, because it's highly doubtful that the US will escape a major again next year...

I guess we need to thank the Tulls / Troughs / ULLs that kept the majors way out to sea......

True but don't forget the season is not over for south florida

I guess we just have to wait for all of the carib and gulf storms that WXMAN promised us we would see in October...

[wxman57]

I'd say that the season is probably over for the NW Gulf (mid LA to TX) but NOT for the mid Gulf Coast east to Florida. This is the time of year when Florida tends to get hit from systems coming out of the NW Caribbean. Wilma didn't even form until mid October.

[vbhoutex]

I'd say that the season is probably over for the NW Gulf (mid LA to TX) but NOT for the mid Gulf Coast east to Florida. This is the time of year when Florida tends to get hit from systems coming out of the NW Caribbean. Wilma didn't even form until mid October.

Question, probably stupid, but I'm asking. Is there any possibility of a cut off low at the end of a front giving us a problem in this area or will everything be taken NE or E away from this area? I much prefer your statement to the possibility I am raising.

[gilbert88]

Yea, I can't believe how lucky the US got this year...When you think about the large number of storms that formed this season, you would have thought for sure that one of those would have been a major hitting the USA... We need to count our blessings, because it's highly doubtful that the US will escape a major again next year...

I guess we need to thank the Tulls / Troughs / ULLs that kept the majors way out to sea......

True but don't forget the season is not over for south florida

I guess we just have to wait for all of the carib and gulf storms that WXMAN promised us we would see in October...

Nobody "promised" more storms, this is not some game. It's severe weather forecasting and thousands of people have already lost their loved ones and/or their properties THIS YEAR.

Please stop all these cute posts questioning the skills of weather specialists, you seem very intent on trying to minimize the horrific damage this hurricane season has already caused, and there are still almost 2 months to go.

[ConvergenceZone]

Nobody "promised" more storms, this is not some game. It's severe weather forecasting and thousands of people have already lost their loved ones and/or their properties THIS YEAR.

Please stop all these cute posts questioning the skills of weather specialists, you seem very intent on trying to minimize the horrific damage this hurricane season has already caused, and there are still almost 2 months to go.

I was only teasing WXMAN. I'm sorry if you don't know what means.
Lighten up, would ya.....

[lonelymike]

Well if anything does get loose and comes toward the NGOM its gonna be choked by dry air. Supposed to be 43 in NW Fla tomorrow nite.

[wxman57]

I'd say that the season is probably over for the NW Gulf (mid LA to TX) but NOT for the mid Gulf Coast east to Florida. This is the time of year when Florida tends to get hit from systems coming out of the NW Caribbean. Wilma didn't even form until mid October.

Question, probably stupid, but I'm asking. Is there any possibility of a cut off low at the end of a front giving us a problem in this area or will everything be taken NE or E away from this area? I much prefer your statement to the possibility I am raising.

Westerly upper-level flow across the Gulf appears here to stay. That kind of flow would steer anything entering the Gulf from the Caribbean off to the NE. And anything that might try to spin up in the Gulf would also track away from TX.

[SoupBone]

Nobody "promised" more storms, this is not some game. It's severe weather forecasting and thousands of people have already lost their loved ones and/or their properties THIS YEAR.

Please stop all these cute posts questioning the skills of weather specialists, you seem very intent on trying to minimize the horrific damage this hurricane season has already caused, and there are still almost 2 months to go.

I was only teasing WXMAN. I'm sorry if you don't know what means.
Lighten up, would ya.....

Don't worry about it. Some people are just intent on causing trouble here. I, along with most people here, understood that you were kidding...the was a dead giveaway.

I did have a question for Wxman. though. What's interesting is that if the door is shut from TX all the way to central LA what would happen if a storm headed for CenLa as far as cities like Baton Rouge is concerned? Are we far enough north that anything headed this way would shoot off to the NE into MS? Oh and did anyone start a thread about the cold front coming down this week? I didn't see one...

[BigB0882]

Unless something spins up in the BOC or off the Texas coast then I feel pretty safe. I don't see much of a chance of anything coming from the East and making it this far West. I think our threat would be from the West and that is probably rather unlikely this time of year?

[wobblehead]

IMHO the fat lady has finished her tune and is slamming shots down at the Flora-Bama.
In all seriousness our only concern will be a frontrider picked up from north of Yucatan or east side BOC.

[Stormcenter]

La la la la la........................LAhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh.

IMHO the fat lady has finished her tune and is slamming shots down at the Flora-Bama.
In all seriousness our only concern will be a frontrider picked up from north of Yucatan or east side BOC.

[StormClouds63]

Over. The fat lady has already sung, and everyone is grateful. Caribbean still possible, but GOM is done. Strong westerlies, plus water temperatures are now starting to fall below 80 degrees in GOM.

[Blown Away]

The cold front scheduled for next week is huge!
It's over for the northern gom.

I agree, there is no way anything could move towards the NGOM for at least the next week or so and by then it will really be over for the NGOM. The pattern looks like November, so a SFL strike is looking less likely, JMHO!!

Bottom line, it looks like the storm #'s predictions were good, but everybody blew it w/ the CONUS landfall predictions.

[Ivanhater]

The cold front scheduled for next week is huge!

It's over for the northern gom.

I posted this in another thread, but it looks over for S.Florida as well. Those westerlies are even stronger over the southern Gulf at times. November came early

Just take a look at the 200mb chart on the GFS...The westerlies are screaming across the Gulf including S.Florida the entire time, leaving the door closed for the Gulf. The models have been showing this same scenario for well over a week. Nothing will get into the Gulf with those westerlies.

It may be Cane season is over for the U.S, and fall came early. Down right cold in Pensacola this morning, had to wear my winter gear for PT this morning. Always have to keep one eye open though.

[MGC]

A bit premature to call the season over for the GOM......only way is if this pattern setup continues for the next couple of months. Funny, but somehow I thought the season was over last November and Ida came a knocking......MGC

[Ntxw]

A bit premature to call the season over for the GOM......only way is if this pattern setup continues for the next couple of months. Funny, but somehow I thought the season was over last November and Ida came a knocking......MGC

Rogue systems are always an exception no matter when. But the real meat of 2010's hurricane season when the most risk is looks to have ended should things pan out as the pattern shows. Dry air is slowly working it's way southward and this alone will prohibit in a big way for the remainder. But threats such as strong upper lows (possibly enhanced by something like Ida, ala nicole recently) riding up the coast is more likely to happen vs a tropical system.