Gulf of Mexico Disturbance--PGI37L

[Wx_Warrior]

Again, don't think we are going to get a cane out of this, but come on now!

[poof121]

I don't remember where I read it, might have been a local discussion out of New Orleans, but I believe GFS had the same piece of vorticity in the SE US for the next three weeks or so, and that was before it's first landfall. So, if it verifies, that's pretty good...

[KWT]

GFS shows it as the same piece of vorticity, so, according to GFS, potentially TD #5 take 3...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2010081812&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation

Wow thats amazing, that proves just how super static the current set-up is, the fact that we could get nearly the exact same evolution 3 times in a row!

[Aquawind]

LOL.. Wackadelic..

[CrazyC83]

I don't see much coming out of the Gulf anytime soon, as apart from along the jet stream, that is where conditions are the most hostile in the entire Atlantic basin!

[Macrocane]

Here we have a saying "La tercera es la vencida" that means "the 3rd chance is the last one", let's see if it develops in its 3rd chance but IMO it won't.

[Dean4Storms]

Crazier things have happened in the tropics. We'll see what happens.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Are the models still showing this potential? Have not seen any AFD's mention it in their long term forecasts. Our chief ocm at 6 did mention it at the end of his segment by saying one model is showing the possibility but not to concerned about it right now.

[Dean4Storms]

AFD out of Mobile NWS Office this afternoon, they mention it in the Marine Outlook........


MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN A MAINLY LIGHT
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A WESTERLY
FLOW THIS WEEKEND THEN ESSENTIALLY VARIABLE WINDS ON MONDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO THE MARINE AREA.
STAYED WITH THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE WINDS FOR THIS WEEKEND GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTIES INVOLVED WITH THE ANTICIPATED SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO
THE MARINE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND. /29 &&

[wxman57]

I think the earlier models were in error in developing a Gulf low. Look off the Mid Atlantic Coast for this system to develop next Tuesday.

[Stormcenter]

The NWS out of New Orleans this morning seems to think both areas (GOM & Alt. Coast) are areas to watch mid next week.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE PREVALENT ON FRIDAY AS
CONSIDERABLE DEEP MOISTURE HANGS AROUND. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL
AMPLIFY OVER THE PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT THE GREATEST
INFLUENCE OF THIS RIDGING WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE REGION. SOME
DRIER AIR WILL ATTEMPT TO WORK INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY...SO SATURDAY WILL LIKELY BE A LOWER POP DAY. AS THE
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE PLAINS...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL TRAVERSE THE
NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC REGIONS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. AND GULF COAST REGION. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR CONVECTION NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...A NUMBER OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS FORECAST A MID LEVEL FEATURE...WITH AN EVENTUAL
SURFACE REFLECTION FORMING IN THE THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT OR
NORTH GULF...IN THE ATLANTIC OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MOVING WEST
INTO THE NORTH GULF DURING THE EARLY AND MID WEEK PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER RATHER WET PERIOD. 11

[KFDM Meteorologist]

GFS

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_120l.gif

[srainhoutx]

HPC:

FINAL...

NO SURPRISES WITH THE 12Z GUIDANCE...WITH THE PATTERN ILLUSTRATED
BY THE UPDATED MANUAL PROGS STILL SUPPORTED BY BOTH THE
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE VARIOUS CENTERS.
COORDINATED THE LOW DRIFTING WESTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO WITH TPC DURING THE MIDDAY CALL...AS SUCH CIRCULATIONS
BREAKING OFF FRONTAL ZONES DO BECOME TROPICAL FROM TIME TO TIME.
HOW FAR OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST THE SYNOPTIC LOW ENDS UP
FORMING IS STILL UNCERTAIN...BUT HAVE THE POWER OF THE HIGHLY
RESOLVED ECENS MEAN MEMBERS TO BACK UP THE FINAL MANUAL DEPICTION.

[KWT]

I think the earlier models were in error in developing a Gulf low. Look off the Mid Atlantic Coast for this system to develop next Tuesday.

I agree the models do develop something, but it looks very extratropical to me, that would take many days to transition and in a highly progressive pattern aloft in the northern latitude, I doubt it gets the time before it gets lifted out along with whatever develops from the CV wave.

[Stormcenter]

These Gulf lows are starting to remind me of that Bill Murray movie "Groundhog Day".

Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee Florida
312 PM EDT Thursday Aug 19 2010

Long term (saturday night through next thursday)...models
continue to indicate an amplifying trough along the eastern
Seaboard which will push a cold front down into the local region
early next week. The front should stall over or just north of our
County Warning Area. The GFS develops a wave on or near the boundary in the
northeast Gulf Monday and drifts it westward over la on Tuesday.
This looks very similar to what we just saw with the remnant low
of dew point 5. Time height cross sections show deep layer moisture in
place at least through Monday and plenty of upper level energy.
This along with daytime heating and sea-breeze interaction with
the stalled boundary will result in above seasonal chances for
showers and thunderstorms though Monday. If the GFS solution
verifies and the surface low pulls further west on Tuesday we may
see convection trending back to more seasonal levels (40%) Tuesday
through the remainder of the extended period. Maximum temperatures
will generally be in the lower 90s and min temperatures will be in the
lower to middle 70s.

[ikesurvivorinBCTX]

I thought this was interesting. Look at the prediction for week of 24th of August. No scientific data or anything but thought it may be of interest to some.

http://www.farmersalmanac.com/long-rang ... entral-us/

[bamajammer4eva]

GFS shows it as the same piece of vorticity, so, according to GFS, potentially TD #5 take 3...

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2010081812&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation

According to a met for a TV station in Dothan, #5 was still alive as of today
http://www.wtvy.com/home/headlines/101107379.html

Posted: 4:12 PM Aug 19, 2010

Tropical Merry-Go-Round
Remember tropical depression # 5?
Reporter: Oscar Fann meteorologist WTVY-TV

Remember tropical depression # 5?

This time last week - Thursday Aug 12 - it had been downgraded and went ashore in Louisiana with gusty winds and scattered areas of heavy rain.

Then, by this past Saturday Aug 14, the remnant circulation had drifted to east central Alabama near Auburn, transporting numerous showers and t-storms to eastern Alabama and western Georgia.

By late Sunday the low had drifted south to Panama City with yet more numerous showers for our area.

Even though it did not strengthen back to depression status (Dauphin Island did report winds near 30 mph), it once again went ashore in southeastern Louisiana early Tuesday morning with several reports (over 6 inches) of heavy rain.

Guess where the weak center of circulation is this afternoon - Thursday Aug 19? It's just west of Selma, Alabama moving slowly east.
It has spawned a line of showers and t-storms moving through south central Alabama.

This time the low will merge with an upper trough of low pressure and lose its identity (maybe it should have had identity theft protection).

Regardless, its energy and moisture will continue to spark showers for several days as that trough is not going anywhere fast.

[Wx_Warrior]

Hello GOM....

[South Texas Storms]

im very interested to see if that persists in the next few runs of the euro. if so, things could get interesting in the gom soon.

[Wx_Warrior]