Being Mad at the Forecasters

[Frank2]

On TWC they've turned it around (as usual) and have made this subject it into a segment that questions the hurricane forecast and forecasters (lol) - it reminds me of the person who would sell the "end of the world" t-shirts - always an opportunist, even if it doesn't make sense...

Sure, as the statistically active period approaches I'm beginning to worry if someone will post one of those "How would you like your crow, deep-fried or baked?" if things get busy, but many along the GC and elsewhere are praying that it doesn't - and prayer is even more powerful than ULL's (lol), so...

Of course the researchers are looking at the current situation and future trends it in the scientific way, but in the end even science has it's bounds...

[taccido]

To me I see a lot of posts like the one by Mr. Watkins that bag on the newbies for pointing out when the forecasters have failed. People should be permitted to freely talk about when the forecasters are wrong or way of base. Every forecasters should have stats and track record so we can analyze their performance. How else will you know who is a good or bad forecaster? Not all forecasters are good. It should be like baseball with a scorecard.

Posts like this one by Watkins will discourage people from wanting to come here. People will think they can't be here unless they never disagree with any meteorologists. Mr. Watkins wrongly assumes that people who point out a forecaster is wrong are angry that there was not a storm. That is absurd and biased against newbies. You have to leave some room for debate or you don't have a forum. You just have a place for forecasters and the NHC to get virtual hugs and applause.

There aren't many newbies here because it is so confusing and people are scared off because they think they always have to agree with what the meteorologists say. In the real world, people are constantly complaining about how bad the weather forecasts are. I'm sorry to be the one to have to say it, but it is just the truth.

[tronbunny]

taccido,

MW is making an observation. (as I believe you are too)
However, a lot of folks that are being critical are at a loss to provide hard facts behind their arguments.
I do not recall ever seeing the "active season" forecasters being specific about benchmarks and timing. The active season historical numbers do not yet preclude any of these active forecasts from verifying either.

I consider myself a long-time poster, but try to limit my posts to those that provide some factual data/observations and keep the 'feelings' to a minimum unless the thread calls for it.
If newcomers don't have much to contribute to the science, art and understanding of tropical meteorology, then it's not much loss if they don't post.
I don't believe MW's basis for this thread detracts from the community at all.
(but then that is my opinion)

[solomon25]

I get mad at the tv mets all the time for snow. They are so often wrong and I refuse to apologize for it But there are probably more people wanting snow than a hurricane (hopefully). There is nothing wrong with criticizing forecasters as long as you are not mean. A mistake is a mistake and that's how we learn! The NHC does pretty good for hurricanes, but if they are wrong it should be noted.

[thetruesms]

On TWC they've turned it around (as usual) and have made this subject it into a segment that questions the hurricane forecast and forecasters (lol) - it reminds me of the person who would sell the "end of the world" t-shirts - always an opportunist, even if it doesn't make sense...

Sure, as the statistically active period approaches I'm beginning to worry if someone will post one of those "How would you like your crow, deep-fried or baked?" if things get busy, but many along the GC and elsewhere are praying that it doesn't - and prayer is even more powerful than ULL's (lol), so...

Of course the researchers are looking at the current situation and future trends it in the scientific way, but in the end even science has it's bounds...

That is the biggest thing that I think needs to be conveyed whenever these forecasts come out. Seasonal forecasting is right at those bounds of science, and more than anything else is an attempt to stretch those bounds. When you're stretching the bounds of science, things don't alway go as expected.

I get mad at the tv mets all the time for snow. They are so often wrong and I refuse to apologize for it But there are probably more people wanting snow than a hurricane (hopefully). There is nothing wrong with criticizing forecasters as long as you are not mean. A mistake is a mistake and that's how we learn! The NHC does pretty good for hurricanes, but if they are wrong it should be noted.

Snow may be the most difficult thing there is to forecast Miss by one or two degrees in a relatively thin layer aloft, and 6 inches of snow turns into nothing but a cold rain . . .

[gulf701]

I agree with you thetruesms as I also get annoyed when the predictions are discounted. As chief of a VFD, I use the seasonal forecasts as the potential for impacts. Being on the coast not far from you, I think it is important to know for sound planning what the potential development factors are for the season. That is how I view and use the forecasts. It only takes one to ruin a year or a life, but at the same time, an active season could equate to numerous land falls that can stress the resources/assistance available to those who have been impacted as in 2005. It is foolish to discount the impacts of weather on our economy and/or social existence.

[StormClouds63]

No one with any sense is "mad" at forecasters for the lack of tropical activity so far in 2010 ... no one wants to see a highly populated area hit by a major storm.

I would like to hear and read more discussion as to WHY these conditions have prevailed through the first 2 1/2 months of the season ... and the chances that conditions either change or remain the same. The date that the basin becomes active keeps getting pushed back further and further. Is a "late season peak" typical for La Nina? So, September 10, this year, will not be a peak date for the 2010 season?

I've been through Rita and Ike, and do not want to experience a major hurricane and all of the aftermath ... no utilities, looking for ice, food, the heat w/no air conditioning ... or the 12-15 hours evacuating to Arkansas (for Gustav) battling traffic and hoping not to run out of gas along the way.

Again, I would like discussions such as Norcross brought up as to the reasons for the unusually weak tropical storms and depressions which have been the norm so far. Why have these systems failed to organize or intensify. Is this typical for a fast transition from El Nino to La Nina? Are there other environmental factors which have played a part in suppressing activity so far which were not anticipated?

No one is angry that a major hurricane isn't about to hit a large city or populated area. If you've gone through it once or twice, you never want to experience and see such things again.

[tolakram]

There aren't many newbies here because it is so confusing and people are scared off because they think they always have to agree with what the meteorologists say.

You are confusing disagreement with respect.

My opinions ...

Many newbies come here and say things like.... I think you're wrong, this one is going to develop.

And yes, you are not allowed to say that here without some evidence and data to back you up, or at least a forecast disclaimer telling the world you have no idea what you are talking about. Newbies who want to do that should be scared off, they are not really wanted here. <-- again, just my opinion

There are plenty examples of new people who arrive here every year and are welcome with open arms AND contribute toward making this community great.

[chrisnnavarre]

There aren't many newbies here because it is so confusing and people are scared off because they think they always have to agree with what the meteorologists say. In the real world, people are constantly complaining about how bad the weather forecasts are. I'm sorry to be the one to have to say it, but it is just the truth.

Well I'm not a newbie, but I'll say this being retired Navy....on ships at sea we always respectfully referred to our Naval Meteorologist Specialists as "Weather Guessers"!

[michthalbert]

[quote="MWatkins"]I am NOT saying they are above reproach. If someone sees a flaw in their analysis, or has an idea of something that might work better, that’s a different story. But, sadly, it gets personal and emotional, and those two things have no business in the scientific community[./quote]

As a lurker I think it is you being emotional here. You make it sound like hurricane forecasters are whining and crying about their harsh treatment and all the unfair criticism. I say they can take it and they don't need you making them seem like wimps by rushing to their unwanted defense. Grow up. Weather Guessers have been criticized for hundreds of years and deservedly so. They make a lot of mistakes.

[Florida1118]

Cool your Jets. I highly doubt MW ment anything.

[Macrocane]

As a lurker I think it is you being emotional here. You make it sound like hurricane forecasters are whining and crying about their harsh treatment and all the unfair criticism. I say they can take it and they don't need you making them seem like wimps by rushing to their unwanted defense. Grow up. Weather Guessers have been criticized for hundreds of years and deservedly so. They make a lot of mistakes.

I think that another person is the one who needs to grow up. Do you think that weather forecasters make a lot of mistakes becuase they want or becuase they are being lazy?, maybe they make a lot of mistakes but their forecasts have saved thousands of lives too, to say that they deserve it is kind of unrespectful, and sorry if I'm being emotional.

[tbens23]

If forecasters would just make accurate forecasts, they wouldn't have to worry about being criticized! LOL!

[Stephanie]

If forecasters would just make accurate forecasts, they wouldn't have to worry about being criticized! LOL!

Forecasting anything is not the easiest thing to do. I'm sure that if anyone of us that is not a pro tried to forecast a storm, weather pattern, etc., we would be much further off track than a pro.

If anything, a season like this where we expected a large amount of storms and have so far received few is a great learning experience and it will be applied to future forecasts.

[ravyrn]

If forecasters would just make accurate forecasts, they wouldn't have to worry about being criticized! LOL!

A forecast is an educated prediction. The weather is a difficult thing to predict. Even well-advanced computer models fed tons of data have a difficult time predicting the weather after 48 hours. To be extremely critical of a forecast for a busy hurricane season made months before the peak of the season is rather ridiculous. Especially considering we're barely tapping into the peak time of the season. All of you guys that are losing sleep over the prediction of a busy season not panning out thus far need to get a grip, as it is only AUGUST 12th!

It's quite disturbing to see people upset that we haven't had more storms/hurricanes. When Hurricane Rita hit, I spent three days not knowing if my home was still standing, followed by two months of not living in it. A slow season is a good season in my book.

[Ivanhater]

The heated and disrespectful tone in here (and any other thread for that matter) better cool it or some will be taking a vacation really soon.

Post your opinions, but deliver it in a respectful manner.

[tbens23]

If forecasters would just make accurate forecasts, they wouldn't have to worry about being criticized! LOL!

A forecast is an educated prediction. The weather is a difficult thing to predict. Even well-advanced computer models fed tons of data have a difficult time predicting the weather after 48 hours. To be extremely critical of a forecast for a busy hurricane season made months before the peak of the season is rather ridiculous. Especially considering we're barely tapping into the peak time of the season. All of you guys that are losing sleep over the prediction of a busy season not panning out thus far need to get a grip, as it is only AUGUST 12th!

It's quite disturbing to see people upset that we haven't had more storms/hurricanes. When Hurricane Rita hit, I spent three days not knowing if my home was still standing, followed by two months of not living in it. A slow season is a good season in my book.

Actually I don't want any storms at all!! Dud season please! I was just saying I don't care if forecasters are criticized for being wrong. The bad forecasters should be fired so better ones can be hired. Just like in any other field.

[vacanechaser]

i think one of the things being over looked in some of the posts above by, lurkers and newbies alike, i think the tearing down of forecasts is all good once the SEASON IS OVER!! for most of us here we know at the season really starts after or around the 15th of august... watkins is right to point these things out... period.. just like you have a right to disagree with him and any of the forecasters or forecasts out there.... but he is making the point also that it gets to be old hat here every year that it always seems to start earlier and earlier... we see to many posts of season dead... season over before it ever truely starts...

we are getting ready to get into the time period of the true tropical season... so everyone needs to relax and wait it out and see what happens... the calls of people to grow up are just ridiculous and uncalled for imo... newbies are more than welcome here to argue and discuss whatever they feel... and there are plenty of folks here that help point them in the right direction when things get fuzzy and confusing... watkins is one of those folks... i have seen him and others bend over backwards to help and clear things up many, many times...

so lets see the season through before we say someone blew a forecast or they were way off base and wrong.... remember, august 15th.... thats the time to start looking... oh, and at this point, in 2010, we are right where we were at this time in 2004.... and i think we all remember how that season turned out.. so at this point, no forecast is right, or wrong...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[gatorcane]

i think one of the things being over looked in some of the posts above by, lurkers and newbies alike, i think the tearing down of forecasts is all good once the SEASON IS OVER!! for most of us here we know at the season really starts after or around the 15th of august... watkins is right to point these things out... period.. just like you have a right to disagree with him and any of the forecasters or forecasts out there.... but he is making the point also that it gets to be old hat here every year that it always seems to start earlier and earlier... we see to many posts of season dead... season over before it ever truely starts...

we are getting ready to get into the time period of the true tropical season... so everyone needs to relax and wait it out and see what happens... the calls of people to grow up are just ridiculous and uncalled for imo... newbies are more than welcome here to argue and discuss whatever they feel... and there are plenty of folks here that help point them in the right direction when things get fuzzy and confusing... watkins is one of those folks... i have seen him and others bend over backwards to help and clear things up many, many times...

so lets see the season through before we say someone blew a forecast or they were way off base and wrong.... remember, august 15th.... thats the time to start looking... oh, and at this point, in 2010, we are right where we were at this time in 2004.... and i think we all remember how that season turned out.. so at this point, no forecast is right, or wrong...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Couldn't agree more, I think this time a couple of weeks from now the threads that talk about season is a bust will be a thing of the past. All signs I am seeing indicate it is going to pick up in a hurry especially by the end of August. A key indicator I use is the MJO pulse which is showing the wet-phase moving through the Altlantic starting next week into the next few weeks. There is a gigantic wave in Central Africa that I really like for development to possibly be our next hurricane with a named system (TS) by the end of next week......there is a discussion on this wave open for comments.

[MWatkins]

I can see why you would think that. But, please follow this out and see where we diverge.

Why would someone really be angry at someone making a seasonal forecast? Seriously, if Phil K makes a forecast for 15 storms, and only 7 occur, what reason would someone have to be angry that Phil, in this pretend situation, was off with his forecast?

If he were off that badly, using the best available forecast processes, wouldn't that create a sense of excitement about why? Something happened, in this case, that was completely different than all of the experts could foresee. Doesn't this alone create a situation where a great new learning could be found?

If you read through various posts here (and in other boards), there is very apparent anger from some folks (regardless of tenure in the forum) directed at the people who made these forecasts...even though the normal climatological ramp-up for this season hasn't even started yet.

Thanks for all of the posts on either side of this issue. I have been engaged in family stuff today, but will reply to more stuff tomorrow.

MW

Statement of Distress: “Geez, gonna be hard to make that big forecast now! These guys should stop making these forecasts if they can’t get it right!”

What That Really Means: The hurricane guys are lying to me! I was all set for a hurricane to hit my neighborhood, but since it hasn’t happened, these guys should stop making these forecasts!
MW

This poster is being disingenuous to say that because someone disagrees with a forecast it means they want a hurricane to destroy their home. What a stupid and self-righteous accusation to make against people you don't even know! No one really pays much attention to the early season forecasts anyway. They are usually wrong and adjusted/corrected later in the year.