Tropical wave in Eastern Caribbean

[floridasun78]

let see were we get 95l some say off north fl other in carribbean or in Atlantic

[Weatherfreak000]

The wave i've been tracking has made it to 50W. Models called into question development in the W.Carr so its still something to keep an eye on in the coming days.

[floridasun78]

i saw nogap show two system one by 35 west https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 0&set=Core

[Weatherfreak000]

Convection beginning to flare again in association with this wave.




The shear situation is a tad more forgiving then the last vorticity that fellow members were tracking, NOGAPS seems to wanna bring this feature right into the W. Caribbean.



Note the rises in vorticity in three areas: The wave at 50W, the mass of vorticity assorted with an area in the SW Caribbean...interesting feature that could be our next 96L and then of course the powerful vorticity of 95L

[bob rulz]

i saw nogap show two system one by 35 west https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... 0&set=Core

It looks like the Bermuda High is going to build in very strongly soon...

[Gustywind]

Continues to gain more convection this morning...



000
AXNT20 KNHC 030557
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUL 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N43W TO 8N52W MOVING W 15-20 KT.
CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH THE
AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS EVIDENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM NW OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 10N-14N.

[Gustywind]

Given Meteo-France (latest weather forecast this morning) this twave should bring numerous strong showers and tstorms sunday night but especially Monday. Gusts are expected to be higher than 60 km/H. They emphasized on the fact that an yellow alert could be on tape and to stay tuned too. Let's wait and see what will could really happen from this twave during the next 24h-48H. I will keep you informed as usual and as possible.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 031044
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUL 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N46W TO 4N52W MOVING W 15-20 KT.
CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH THE
AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM AS EVIDENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
STRONG CONVECTION ARE W OF THE WAVE AXIS WITHIN 120/150 NM NW OF
LINE FROM 13N49W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N58W.

[Stephanie]

Both of those are very low in latitude, given what we normally see, especially the one in the Atlantic.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 031727
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT JUL 03 2010

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC...

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N47W TO FRENCH GUIANA AT 3N53W
MOVING W 15-20 KT. CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY WITH THE AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN A TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
MOISTURE MAXIMUM. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE W OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN
50W-60W.

[KWT]

Its got a classic shear presentation, you can see where the jet axis lines up by the way the convection is slanted...that being said it is indeed weaker in that region then it has been and it may well lift out again.

[HURAKAN]

TWD 805:

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 16N50W TO INLAND NORTH BRAZIL AT
3N61W MOVING W 15-20 KT. CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED ON
SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH THE AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN A TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER MOISTURE MAXIMUM. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 110 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

[Weatherfreak000]

Still looking good, remember it was never forecast to form until the W. Caribbean.

Edit: It appears a nice little area IS indeed firing up off the Florida Peninsula. It is amazing how active this season already feels.

[HURAKAN]

I think this system can develop down the road

[Gustywind]

[Gustywind]

Convection fairly on the increase while the active twave is becoming close the Windwards/Leewards islands...

[Weatherfreak000]

Mid and upper level shear images looking very conducive, reminds me of the Graveyard that existed in 2005.

[cycloneye]

IMO,it will be mentioned at the 2 PM TWO.

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow, that is some serious convection going on! It has a bit of an elongated presentation though.

[KWT]

Still looks like a sheared presentation, very linear indeed...that being said the southern part of the wave is getting into less sheared conditions now but I think whilst we could see 97L from that region sooner or later, I don't think its going to develop in the short term and in the longer term if 96L develops it'll get sheared from that as well.

Do any models develop it?