GOM Hurricane soon?

[Ivanhater]

If the GFS picks up on this for the 00Z and the others stay onboard..I think we will have the first system of the season.

Yesterday's 12Z GFS did have this system, but is doing the usual drop and add routine.

THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF ALSO
SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR TC DEVELOPMENT. THIS TREND IS WORTHY OF
NOTE GIVEN THAT YESTERDAY`S 12Z RUN OF THE GFS WAS SHOWING THIS
POTENTIAL AS WELL. THE THEME HERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF THE
GULF BECOMING A FAVORABLE AREA FOR TC DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT NEXT
WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...

[SFLcane]

upper levels look great.

[hurricanetrack]

Ivan- where is that quote coming from? Just curious. Is it from an AFD?

[Ivanhater]

Ivan- where is that quote coming from? Just curious. Is it from an AFD?

Sorry Mark, it is from the EWX NWS which I believe is Austin?

EWX...

THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST TO
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND...OPENING UP A PATH FROM
THE CARIBBEAN INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF FOR ANY TROPICAL WAVES OR
TROPICAL CYCLONES THAT EXIST AT THAT TIME. THE 12Z ECMWF WAS
RATHER AGGRESSIVE IN DEVELOPING A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE
SOUTH CENTRAL GULF LATE IN THE FORECAST CYCLE...THEN MOVING IT
INTO THE COASTAL BEND AT 228H. THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF ALSO
SHOWED THE POTENTIAL FOR TC DEVELOPMENT. THIS TREND IS WORTHY OF
NOTE GIVEN THAT YESTERDAY`S 12Z RUN OF THE GFS WAS SHOWING THIS
POTENTIAL AS WELL. THE THEME HERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE OF THE
GULF BECOMING A FAVORABLE AREA FOR TC DEVELOPMENT/MOVEMENT NEXT
WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR NEAR NORMAL MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Pay attention to the EURO!

[KWT]

Those shear levels are most impressive, still a bit of a way off yet but the basin is going to see another drop in shear levels if that comes off, not good given we are already below average!

[SFLcane]

Those shear levels are most impressive, still a bit of a way off yet but the basin is going to see another drop in shear levels if that comes off, not good given we are already below average!

The caribbean for the most part has been below average shear wise for a while now.

[PTrackerLA]

Definitely going to be keeping an eye on this one. When the Euro becomes consistent with a storm like this it's time to pay attention.

[hurricanetrack]

I don't know- the UKMET and GFS are not in the same camp. So either they are right and the Euro is wrong or the Euro is the only one of the three that will be right. Guess there's only one way to find out!

[Macrocane]

Very interesting how the models are in good agreement in the 12z run, I still want to see consistency in those models for a few more runs but certainly it's something to keep both eyes on.

[Wx_Warrior]

EURO may still be working the kinks out for the 2010 season....

[KFDM Meteorologist]

GFS changes everyday seems like. Saturday it had a system in the Gulf this week today it doesn't. Cant stand the GFS on Tropics in the Medium to long Range. EURO to me is the most consistant.

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HeidiLore]

A bit worried about Haiti now. Even a small system can wreak havoc and devastation.

[ronjon]

Looks like the vorticity that the ECM, CMC, and NOGAPS are picking up on is coming off the north coast of SA. It seems that it combines with the remnants of 92L that spring up low pressure in the western caribbean in 3-5 days.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-avn.html

[Aquawind]

A bit worried about Haiti now. Even a small system can wreak havoc and devastation.

This system looks to be a non isssue as far as development is concerned for them being it will probably be way west before development but, were all worried for Haiti and will be for the entire season.

[cycloneye]

Maybe the GOM development will come from here.

984
ABNT20 KNHC 202352
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SUN JUN 20 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CUBA SOUTHWARD INTO THE
NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN CUBA...HISPANIOLA...
JAMAICA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS...WHICH COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...AS WELL AS
GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO OVER PORTIONS
OF HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA...AND MUCH OF CUBA AS THE WAVE MOVES
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
DEVELOPMENT...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM...PLEASE REFER TO PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA...AND ADJACENT WATERS
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
WAVE MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...
AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/LANDSEA

[Ivanhater]

WOW . I did not expect the NHC to start mentioning this in the TWO, and yes, this is the one the models are developing

[Aquawind]

Wow me neither.. 92L split or redevelopment?

[Brent]

Wow! I'm surprised the NHC mentioned it already but there is DEFINITELY something brewing down there. This is gonna be an interesting week.

I think it is totally separate from 92L.