Euro/Models develops African wave

[wxman57]

:uarrow: Yes, too early for development in the MDR. As for named storms before August, I would expect 2-3 as well, but I am not expecting a named system in the WCAR in 3-4 days from the the wave entering the Eastern Caribbean, probably just a wave that flares up periodically and crashes into Central America.

I think that there may be a brief window for development just before it moves inland. Could allow it to reach minimal TS strength and then it's inland and dissipating. Not a great chance, but a chance.

New Euro does show a tropical wave crossing, reaching the eastern Caribbean in about a week. But it still shows that TUTT in the Caribbean, along with considerable shear.

[cycloneye]

[Frank2]

New Euro does show a tropical wave crossing, reaching the eastern Caribbean in about a week. But it still shows that TUTT in the Caribbean, along with considerable shear.

Right - the current shear is as strong as it is duirng the Winter months, that's for sure, and that's the issue with the seasonal forecast, because there can be 30 hurricanes in the eastern Atlantic which would validate the seasonal forecast of a busy season, but if conditions to the west are not conducive to hurricane development, then [to the public] the outcome will be totally contrary to what has been forecast...

Meteorologists try to explain that when issuing their annual forecast, but meteorologists think differently than a retired couple from New York who live in an apartment in suburban Boca Raton, and have no concept of such things, other than the fact that either there is a hurricane heading towards Florida or there isn't...

Frank

[Parungo]

The wave genesis, yesterday...

... in this thread:

foro.meteored.com//impresionante+tormenta+de+arenafrente+racha+en+el+sahel


A typical North-AEW

[pepeavilenho]

If you want to read that topic on English, click here.

http://translate.google.es/translate?hl ... 92.24.html

mmm...the chances are low for development, but there are!

[ConvergenceZone]

Wow wxman57, If you are correct in your forecast of only 2 to 3 named storms before August, then perhaps the projected insane numbers for the entire season are way too high.. Unless of course August AND September have insanely high numbers....

[wxman57]

Wow wxman57, If you are correct in your forecast of only 2 to 3 named storms before August, then perhaps the projected insane numbers for the entire season are way too high.. Unless of course August AND September have insanely high numbers....

Not really. Typically, about 90-95% of named storms develop between the first week of August and the 3rd week of October. Let's say there is one named storm in June and two in July. That's 3. We could easily see 5-6 in August and 7-8 in September. That's another 12-14. Add another 3-4 in October/November and we're around 18 named storms. There could easily be 7-8 storms this September, it depends on factors like if we have any MJO pulse arriving then.

[cycloneye]

12z CMC has a TD-TS east of the Windwards.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[ConvergenceZone]

Thanks wxman57. I didn't realize the percentage between August and October was that high. Thanks for the clarrification...

[wxman57]

Here's a GFS plot of the 200mb wind isotachs valid at 144hrs when that disturbance is indicated to be nearing the Caribbean. Westerly winds about 15-25 kts aloft would impart about 20-30 kts of shear across at least the northern part of the disturbance. Still a bit early for that area. Of course, the upper-level wind forecast could be wrong. Probably not too bad of a forecast, though, given the current pattern.

[KWT]

Wow wxman57, If you are correct in your forecast of only 2 to 3 named storms before August, then perhaps the projected insane numbers for the entire season are way too high.. Unless of course August AND September have insanely high numbers....

Not really. Typically, about 90-95% of named storms develop between the first week of August and the 3rd week of October. Let's say there is one named storm in June and two in July. That's 3. We could easily see 5-6 in August and 7-8 in September. That's another 12-14. Add another 3-4 in October/November and we're around 18 named storms. There could easily be 7-8 storms this September, it depends on factors like if we have any MJO pulse arriving then.

True, but that being said the top 8 seasons (16+) have averaged an impressive 5 storms before August 3rd so you'd have to bet above the average, of course it can easily be done, 04 and 98 were both very busy and whilst just missing out is a great example of what can happen. An even more extreme example would be 69, which did break into that top 8 despite only one storm before August.

[Aquawind]

True, but that being said the top 8 seasons (16+) have averaged an impressive 5 storms before August 3rd so you'd have to bet above the average, of course it can easily be done, 04 and 98 were both very busy and whilst just missing out is a great example of what can happen. An even more extreme example would be 69, which did break into that top 8 despite only one storm before August.

Good point.. 5 storms before Aug 3rd. Good chance if this is going to be such a hyper-active season that we would hit that AVERAGE.. This season certainly looks to be busy in August and September. If the MJO gets back into the basin in late September it could be a very active late season with all of the heat still available. With 5 systems prior to Aug 3rd we can understand how the NHC mentioned 23 systems.

[KWT]

I tend to agree with Wxman57 this season, it has a classic La Nina type evolution at the moment with a not too quick start but things ramp up in a very big way come Mid August. Even if we only have 2 storms by then I still suspect this season will be in the 16-19 storm type range.

Its worthwhile noting that the ACE index and the highest seasons in that index don't need to have anything before August, as 04 proved, and seasons like 69/98/55 ranked highly despite being very slow upto August

[Sambucol]

I tend to agree with Wxman57 this season, it has a classic La Nina type evolution at the moment with a not too quick start but things ramp up in a very big way come Mid August. Even if we only have 2 storms by then I still suspect this season will be in the 16-19 storm type range.

With that in mind, take advantage of the time to get all hurricane preps ready to go. It's a lot less stressful being ready in advance when a storm heads your way rather than hurrying around at the last minute trying to get supplies together.

[gatorcane]

:uarrow: Yes, too early for development in the MDR. As for named storms before August, I would expect 2-3 as well, but I am not expecting a named system in the WCAR in 3-4 days from the the wave entering the Eastern Caribbean, probably just a wave that flares up periodically and crashes into Central America.

I think that there may be a brief window for development just before it moves inland. Could allow it to reach minimal TS strength and then it's inland and dissipating. Not a great chance, but a chance.

New Euro does show a tropical wave crossing, reaching the eastern Caribbean in about a week. But it still shows that TUTT in the Caribbean, along with considerable shear.

This TUTT is mentioned by NWS Miami (snippet below). At any rate I expect very little chance of development for the African wave and just about no chance for this wave developing as it heads through the Caribbean, especially with a TUTT in its path though the TUTT is heading west also. Wouldn't be surprised if the wave flares up some as it interacts with the TUTT then crashes into Central America.

SECOND IS WHAT MAY BE THE FIRST TUTT LOW OF THE SEASON
CURRENTLY OVER THE ERN TIP OF CUBA. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS
FEATURE PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE FL PENINSULA ON SATURDAY.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php ... glossary=1

[Ivanhater]

Nogaps



Canadian

[Ivanhater]

Wow

[Macrocane]

The models are in pretty good agreement about development in the EPAC and in the Atlantic the 1979 Ana scenario is becoming more likely, very interesting.

[punkyg]

Where is this wave? it doesn't show up on the NHC's surface map.
has it even made its way off the African coast.

some one please make since of this.

[Ivanhater]

12z Nogaps