Complacency in South Florida

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jinftl
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Re: Complacency in South Florida

#21 Postby jinftl » Sat Jun 05, 2010 9:09 pm

An estimate from the insurance industry in 2010 actually estimated that a storm identical in path, size, and intensity to the 1926 Great Miami Hurricane today would cause $181 billion in damage in 2010 $!!! That would be twice the damage from Katrina!

Just as in Andrew, a storm like the 1926 hurricane did widespread wind damage...it was wind damage that comprised most of the $ damage, not surge (although that certainly contributed). Building codes and storm-resistant windows/shutters will determine whether homes make it through.

The worst case scenario for south florida will be a wind event to more than a surge event.

http://www.icatdamageestimator.com/toptendamages

ronjon wrote:The SE FL coast is due for a major hurricane. Will it be this year? If history is any guide, S FL is living on barrowed time. From 1920 to 1960, 13 hurricanes impacted the SE coast of FL while only 3 from 1961 to 2003. In 2004, we had Frances and Jeanne, that came in near Sebastian Inlet, while close, still missed the heavily populated region of Dade and Broward Counties. During the 1920-1960 period, 7 major hurricanes hit S FL while only two, Betsy (1965) and Andrew (1992) impacted S FL since then. If the Great Miami Hurricane of 1926 (CAT 4) hit today, it is estimated that property damages alone with top 90 billion dollars.
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Re: Complacency in South Florida

#22 Postby StarmanHDB » Sun Jun 06, 2010 12:00 pm

too bad you seem to be upset you had to move from wherever you previously resided. Personally, this is the best state ever, thus why I left Tx after 42 years. :wink:
(I still love TX, but its just not the same as here)


Who moved? By the way, I love it down here too! Sure as hell beats Michigan (aka. "The Dirty Glove")!

And yes, I do know that our season really doesn't even begin to kickoff until mid to late August, but it seems that with whomever I speak (and I live in Wilma territory) very few seem to care. Do they figure that insurance will take care of it all?
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Re: Complacency in South Florida

#23 Postby jinftl » Sun Jun 06, 2010 12:23 pm

Anyone who owned a home down here during Wilma is more than aware of the insurance industry....mentioning that is like mentioning heart disease and cancer to folks....you can only do so much to prepare for it, but when it hits, you are never prepared enough!

The lucky folks have had the financial resources over the last few years to upgrade to impact windows, maintain or upgrade their insurance policies, and invest in a generator. Given the recession, those folks may be the minority.

If a storm like Andrew decides to make landfall on Miami Beach and head west on 836 or 826 to Doral and Miami Lakes, or if it makes landfall at Port Everglades and heads west down 595 to Sawgrass Mills and Weston....we are all sitting ducks. You would have Cat 3+ conditions in a non-evacuation zone. The building standards haven't been tested in North Miami-Dade through Palm Beach like they were in places like Country Walk during Andrew.

The condo complex i live in was almost condemned post-Wilma...the roof damage caused water to come in and the entire top level (3rd floor) had to be gutted to nothing but beams. Residents of those units live in trailers in the parking lot for about a year after the storm. The cost? Wilma damage resulted in an initial assessment of $12,000 per unit, followed by another one a year later for $4,000. The 3-building, 120-unit complex had $750,000 in insurance between the 3 buildings to cover $2.4 million in actual damage. That was from sustained Cat 1/low Cat 2 conditions. So much for the 'it's only a Cat 1' line....anyone who has experienced sustained Cat 1 conditions...not gusts....knows better. I can guarantee that no one in my condo complex is suffering from complacency! More likely, they are suffering from dread.





StarmanHDB wrote:
too bad you seem to be upset you had to move from wherever you previously resided. Personally, this is the best state ever, thus why I left Tx after 42 years. :wink:
(I still love TX, but its just not the same as here)


Who moved? By the way, I love it down here too! Sure as hell beats Michigan (aka. "The Dirty Glove")!

And yes, I do know that our season really doesn't even begin to kickoff until mid to late August, but it seems that with whomever I speak (and I live in Wilma territory) very few seem to care. Do they figure that insurance will take care of it all?
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Re: Complacency in South Florida

#24 Postby StarmanHDB » Sun Jun 06, 2010 12:50 pm

If a storm like Andrew decides to make landfall at Port Everglades and heads west down 595 to Sawgrass Mills and Weston....we are all sitting ducks.


Thus, considering this year's forecasts, my concerns. By the way, looking at historical hurricane tracks, Hurricane Cleo (1964) passed DIRECTLY over where I currently live. Oh, joy!
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#25 Postby barometerJane61 » Sun Jun 06, 2010 2:33 pm

I've always felt that long periods of no hurricane strikes in a particular area is a curse in diguise.Its human nature to be lulled into complacency. Although I believe no one in La will ever forget Katrina and will always be on alert,other folks will wind up staying behind whenthe next major cane strikes them,like Florida and the Carolinas
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Re: Complacency in South Florida

#26 Postby jinftl » Sun Jun 06, 2010 2:49 pm

I guess my question is this - does living in an area that can, on occasion, see a direct hit from a major hurricane at peak intensity amount to complacency? Looking at south florida, we have enacted the toughest building standards in the nation following Andrew - building standards that require structures to be able to withstand certain wind thresholds. In terms of evacuation, south Florida is not New Orleans or Galveston. Emergency Management evacuation maps for a Cat 4/5 require evacuation generally east of I-95. We are talking about a scenario where, to escape surge flooding, moving only a few miles inland is required. In most cases, that means going to a family's or friend's house to ride out the storm. Compare that to a scenario like Katrina heading towards New Orleans. Highways were clogged as residents fled, in some cases, hundreds of miles inland. In reality, some folks didn't need to move 200 miles inland to find safety.

Until a hurricane watch is in effect, especially given the economy, people aren't going to hit the grocery stores and hardware stores for supplies. That may speak more towards financial realities than a general sense of complacency.

When a storm threatens, there is immediate and ongoing coverage by all local media in south florida, and this trickles down to how schools and businesses operate. Once a warning is issued, schools close and private businesses close.

Homeowners are required to have insurance, and homeowners can attest to the change in rates (or difficulty in getting coverage) post-2004/2005 seasons. I have spent many summers visiting family in suburban New Orleans, and I can attest that from what I see, many more homes down here are equipped with impact resistant windows and accordion shutters.

Bottom line, we live in a hurricane zone. If that makes us complacent, so be it. Similarly, residents of Los Angeles and San Francisco face risks of earthquakes, tornados effect those in tornado alley, and terrorism threats loom over NYC and D.C. Unlike New Orleans, south florida is not built below sea level.

When a storm threatens, I have never personally observed residents not preparing in some way for it. It is a different beast, for right or for wrong, when you have the bulk of the population not living in a surge evacuation zone, but you are in an area which can experience major hurricanes.

We don't have to go back generations to find Andrew survivors....when a single storm leaves a quarter of a million people homeless in just a few hours, 18 years isn't long enough to erase those memories. What other disaster until Katrina left 250,000 Americans in one location homeless in a single day? I personally know many people who still go blank when recalling what their experienes in Kendall, Culter Ridge, and Naranja were like the night and morning of Andrew....and the months that followed. This is not the storm of 'other generations'....survivors are everywhere today.

Compare that to vulnerable cities like Tampa and New York....most folks think that Tampa is protected by a hurricane shield and that New York is not a tropical location so why worry about hurricanes. Hurricanes are everywhere here in south florida....we even have a college team named after the storms at the University of Miami. The headquarters of the NHC is housed in Miami. This is hurricane country and folks are aware of that.

If sustained Cat 3 or higher winds effect communities away from the coast...which has happened down here many times before....the building codes for those hunkered down in their homes will be the deciding factor of who survives and who doesn't.
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Re: Complacency in South Florida

#27 Postby dolebot_Broward_NW » Sun Jun 06, 2010 10:32 pm

And it is those who experienced just the "effects" who become complacent. They just "think" they've been through a major storm...

I can't agree with this more.

that was a huge problem after Frances and Jeanne hit here back to back in 2004. Even though some areas only experienced minimal conditions, they thought they had experienced the fullest force of them. And then when Wilma came along and gave some of these same people her fullest affects, they were floored

It makes people think they are experts. Trouble is that Wilma was sort of a quick slap, vs a life changing experience.

It seems that many people assign the maximum strength of the storm to what they experienced, regardless of where they were in relation to the storm and what they actually experienced.


Another thing about Wilma is that it came through SE FL as a CAT 2 not a CAT 3.


Most folks saw sustained CAT 1, maybe some sustained CAT 2, even at the eyewall in Coral Springs/Parkland/West Boca saw just a few minutes of CAT1 winds.

The direct result of that storm - an inconvenient loss of power for a number of days, maybe a couple weeks if you lived in certain areas. Standing in long gas lines was also experienced by all, but likely not required. Some, maybe even most, of the folks stood in gas lines for generator gas, or for something to do. Not because they really needed gas. Oh and driving while there are no streetlights.

I shudder to think what would happen even with a CAT 3 storm here. Most homes near the eyewall would have the roof removed. If she comes in parallel to the coast at a decent clip, right down Port Everglades/595, that would take out the port, thus removing fuel for a number of weeks from most of the southern half of FL, the airport, which likely would stay down for a couple weeks, potentially damage a major arterial roadway, all boatbuilding and refit facilities (I work in the yacht world, NONE of these boatyards are ready for a storm), and would remove the roofs and perhaps some external walls from possibly 10,000 homes. The disaster would be epic, leaving some 50,000 people homeless.

Nobody (with a few exceptions) really takes these things as seriously as they should, the gubmint knows how to continue thank god (the EOC is built like a tank), but most people seriously expect the government to come in and distribute food and water and ice afterwards.

Note to Broward residents. Expect no ice deliveries anymore. There may be water, but ice is a no-go. At least that was the word at the EOC a few months back.


This right here should be enough to make people lose any thought that the government can and will help you out after a disaster. Folks really need to prepare:

After Hurricane Ike many residents applied to FEMA for loans and FEMA trailers. Many residents were forced to wait several weeks until their trailers arrived. Some waited for up to two months living in hotels, homes of relatives several miles away, or in their homes with no power or running water. Many residents were very angry at the response that FEMA gave to the problem. Responsible people who had prepared by buying insurance were declined any aid at all, even if need was proven, while people who had not prepared, who had bought no or inadequate insurance, were offered help. Some residents who needed a trailer had almost finished repairing their homes by the time their trailers arrived. Residents in Bridge City were outraged that FEMA had not given their homes inspections so that they could apply for loans and trailers. In an effort to help Bridge City, people in Port Neches, Nederland, and residents of Bridge City whose homes had not been damaged offered their services to the people of Bridge City in an effort to speed up the rebuilding of Bridge City
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Re: Complacency in South Florida

#28 Postby MomH » Mon Jun 07, 2010 9:04 am

I have tried to convince folks they need to prepare for years and it never seems to work. I live in the center of Florida and during 2004, four of the storms passed within 25-30 miles of my home. One of them shook the walls of my concrete block home and left 14 of the 25 homes on my block with blue roofs.

Last week I pulled my hurricane supplies out of the closet, replaced what I needed, and put what I took out back in my pantry to use up. How hard or time cosumming is that? Every family should have a survival stash whether you live in Florida or Iowa or the middle of Canada.

I am curious. How many people on this forum actually have an emergency preparedness kit packed and ready?
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#29 Postby Jinkers » Mon Jun 07, 2010 10:02 am

I do, I need a few things, but I have the essentials.
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#30 Postby thetruesms » Mon Jun 07, 2010 12:29 pm

I must confess, I'm still in the process of getting mine together :oops: I discovered it's a little bit difficult to start one from scratch on the heels of an interstate move. I've got the most important stuff, and hopefully I'll have everything good to go before things really get heated up.
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#31 Postby DanKellFla » Mon Jun 07, 2010 7:51 pm

Just about everybody that I talk too about hurricanes is taking this year seriously. (As they do with most years.) Whenever hurricane preparation comes up, people usually find me. Why? Because I got a bit obsessive about it for a few years and wouldn't stop talking about it. So, my big mouth has to back it up. I have just about everything that I need to survive a few days/weeks after a storm. But, that isn't saying that much. I live inland in an area with a new infrastructure and I have family in the area spread around. One of us always has power and water within 2 days of a storm. My big purchase this year is a 400 watt inverter and a deep cycle battery. I am also rotating the water that has been in my garage for a year.

To answer MomH question. I have a kit prepared. It is a 'stay in place' kit. Not an evacuation kit. Although, with a few modifications I could make it an evacuation kit.
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#32 Postby Janie2006 » Tue Jun 08, 2010 6:33 am

The general public doesn't seem to be aware of some very important points.

1) In a disaster situation the government's first priority is *not* relief and rescue...it's continuity.

2) Waiting until a hurricane watch is issued before getting supplies is an incredibly *bad* idea. I understand that times are hard, but you can buy some canned goods with the same money that you use buying that 2-liter of Diet Coke or the pack of cigarettes. Buy a little at a time and you'll get there. When the watch is issued, use the time wisely and that means not standing behind the panicked peeps at the supermarket.

3) Most people are not pro-mets. I know this point seems obvious, but you'd be amazed at the things people take for granted. I'm not even a pro-met (I decided to earn a doctrate in another field), but I know far more than the person who posts on Facebook asking about the beach forecast. And I don't take this valuable information on S2K for granted, believe me. Looking at the sky and watching TWC doesn't make you a meteorologist, and certainly not a hurricane expert.

Maybe it is human nature to be complacent, although that's perhaps a subject best left for philosophers. In hurricane country, that's no excuse. In fact, it may get you killed. There are simple steps people can take that will enable them to survive and move on much more quickly....if they'll only take the time to learn the skills.

After Katrina, after everything was said and done, I ran across a Katrina blog posted by a man named Shane. I can't remember if it was posted here or not. Anyway, this blog is filled with hurricane lessons and good preparation tips: http://www.theplacewithnoname.com/blogs/klessons/
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Re: Complacency in South Florida

#33 Postby wxman57 » Tue Jun 08, 2010 7:21 am

MomH wrote:
I am curious. How many people on this forum actually have an emergency preparedness kit packed and ready?


See my thread on preparing your hurricane kit in the preparedness forum:
viewtopic.php?f=30&t=107866

Lots of good info there on things to add to the kit and other items you'll need when a hurricane hits.
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Re: Complacency in South Florida

#34 Postby Frank2 » Tue Jun 08, 2010 8:10 am

I spent 10 days in a Sebring hotel after Wilma (no water or power in my Davie neighborhood), so know how that can be - though being in my favorite Sebring hotel (our bicycle club regularly goes there) was far better than being at home without water or power, and was very greatful for being "on the sidelines"...

We'll see what happens this year...

Frank
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Re: Complacency in South Florida

#35 Postby MomH » Tue Jun 08, 2010 8:51 am

WXMAN57---

Great list. I would have only one suggestion. Marking each item with astericks which indicate their importance. For instance * would mean "must have", ** might mean "get these next", *** might mean "good to have", and **** could mean "will make life easier when you can afford them". It might make the list a little less daunting for those on tight budgets or those who are just getting started.

I also have a "bug out" bag packed. Instead of getting rid of clothes I'm tired of wearing I recycle them through the BO bag. It also holds minimal personal care items, peanut butter crackers, couple of tuna lunch kits, 3 one liter bottles of water, a hunting knife, a flashlight and extra batteries, and a roll of garbage bags. I need to add copies of important papers. I also keep tools, a flashlight, a roll of duct tape, a roll of garbage bags, and my electric scooter (including charger) in my van. If I had to, I could throw a five gallon gas can in the car and be gone in 15 minutesor less.
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#36 Postby x-y-no » Tue Jun 08, 2010 9:21 am

I've had my basic kit prepared every June 1 for the last 30 years or so. Everything I need to survive entirely on my own for a minimum of two weeks. In my experience that's more than adequate, since even after the worst storms emergency supplies start trickling in after four or five days.
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Re: Complacency in South Florida

#37 Postby Jagno » Wed Jun 09, 2010 1:29 am

Complacency is not just a Florida thing. We have it here as well. I lost my home in 2005 so my bug out bag is a 20 ft. Well Cargo Unit, a 30' 5th wheel Camper, a 30' Emergency Kitchen, a 30' Toy Box Camper, a huge commercial pit/smoker, an Artic Cat 4-wheeler, Honda 4-wheeler,15k generator, 5k Honda Generator, 4 100lb. LP tanks full, commercial propane range & commercial fridge/freezer, and 2 20' utility trailers. I will not be homeless and without utilities for 60+ days or a shower again.

More people seem to be taking on a whole new attitude this year with the deep seated fears of the impact that this BP oil spill and a hurricane will have when combined. The thinking is that, if they would not allow us to return for weeks on end due to contamination of just a hurricane, then they may not allow us to come home at all as this oil and Corexit contamination would be far worse this go round. Certainly food for thought. You cannot rebuild if the water aquifers are contaminated. How do you even begin to drive on oil slickened roadways. There isn't enough dawn manufactured to degrease that potential mess.
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Re: Complacency in South Florida

#38 Postby somethingfunny » Wed Jun 09, 2010 2:33 am

StarmanHDB, welcome to the forums!

If I may ask, when you lived in Michigan how prepared were you for tornadoes? Or fires or floods? I live in North Texas and I'll be honest - I don't have much of a tornado plan. Frankly I just assume that I'll never be struck by one. The chances just seem so miniscule.

My house doesn't have a basement so the plan is basically for everybody and the dog to cram into the hall closet....I'd rather not think about that, so by human nature I generally don't.
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Re: Complacency in South Florida

#39 Postby StarmanHDB » Wed Jun 09, 2010 12:10 pm

somethingfunny wrote:StarmanHDB, welcome to the forums!

If I may ask, when you lived in Michigan how prepared were you for tornadoes? Or fires or floods? I live in North Texas and I'll be honest - I don't have much of a tornado plan. Frankly I just assume that I'll never be struck by one. The chances just seem so miniscule.

My house doesn't have a basement so the plan is basically for everybody and the dog to cram into the hall closet....I'd rather not think about that, so by human nature I generally don't.

Thanks again somethingfunny and all! GREAT site!

If I were you, I wouldn't be so confident about your chances of not being struck by a tornado. The data doesn't lie and the fact is that based on that data, your area of Tornado Alley spawns a lot more super-cells than anywhere in Michigan.

As far as my personal experiences with tornadoes, I can still clearly remember seeing my first ominous dark, toilet-green sky. I was 9 years-old, the date was April 4, 1974, and amidst the barrage of "take cover now" news reports and blowing sirens, little did I know that I was experiencing part of one of the largest outbreaks this country has ever seen: the exact same outbreak which obliterated Xenia, Ohio (some 350 miles away from my then home)! Despite that however, it wasn't until an F4 tornado touched down around 10 miles away from me on March 20, 1976 that Oakland County officials started a major yearly spring tornado education effort (which they are still advocating).

The bottom line is that because of the nature of tropical storm development, the "average joe" definitely has the time to prepare. Tornadoes are a far different beast. Unlike tropical storms which ofttimes allow the non-prepared over a week to prepare, tornadoes quickly appear out of nowhere with very little warning. Furthermore, while hurricanes are the storms (not only do they come with one hell of an arsenal, they have eyes....what in the hell is up with that), far too many people do not realize that tornadoes pack the highest wind speeds ever recorded and, in terms of those speeds, blow hurricanes out of the water (pun intended....sorry, I had to do that)!

So, while you are 100% correct about humans not wanting to think about our own horrible demises at the hands of nature, the fact remains that the same forces which make our planet habitable can also kill us. As a one-time resident living on the outskirts of Tornado Alley, I am incredibly befuddled by all of the tropical storm apathy I personally run into living down here. Thank you for helping me clarify my personal "whys" and "how comes".
:)

By the way, here's a great link concerning tornado preparations and safety....
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/faq/tornado/safety.html
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Re: Complacency in South Florida

#40 Postby Patrick99 » Wed Jun 09, 2010 9:15 pm

Actually, I feel the opposite. The general sense I've gotten from people I've talked with about it is that we are probably going to be under the gun this year. It's like you can almost feel it coming. Things just got brutally hot and humid so fast. I mean, mid-upper 90s are not *that* unusual here especially inland, but mid-upper 90s with 80 degree dewpoints like we've been experiencing (until today)?? Heat index of 100 degrees at 9AM like it was this past weekend? That's insane. The water off the coast is astonishingly hot, it already feels like it's at its summer peak.

This, with the predictions of an above-average season, is contributing to this sense that we are going to get it this year, I think.
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