Phil Klotzbach / Dr Gray June forecast=18/10/5

[jinftl]

Taking a closer look at the data Dr. Gray put out last week, the probability of landfalling storms by county is shown.

(note - the length of coastline of a county of course impacts the forecast %....Miami-Dade and Palm Beach county have more coastline than Broward county, which is sandwiched between the 2, hence, M-D and PB show up on the data below. Since landfalling storms impact areas more than just the county they landfall in usually, keep in mind the impacts can be felt away from the point of landfall....take Katrina and New Orleans and Wilma and Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach. For reference, Monroe County in FL has 266 km of coastline, the next longest coastline of any of the counties shown below is Charleston, SC at 111 km.)

Probabilty of 1 or More
Named Storms Making
Landfall in the County
Monroe, FL (Keys) 38.8%
Terrebonne, LA 20.4%
Matagorda, TX 17.4%
Kenedy, TX 15.8%
Charleston, SC 15.7%
Miami-Dade, FL 15.2%
Cameron, TX 15.2%
Carteret, NC 14.2%
Jim Wells, TX 13.5%
Dare, NC 13.4%


Probabilty of 1 or More
Hurricanes Making
Landfall in the County
Monroe, FL (Keys) 29.6%
Miami-Dade, FL 11.1%
Matagorda, TX 10.8%
Terrebonne, LA 10.6%
Charleston, SC 10.5%
Kenedy, TX 9.7%
Carteret, NC 9.5%
Dare, NC 8.9%
Jim Wells, TX 8.3%
Palm Beach, FL 8.1%



Probabilty of 1 or More
Intense Hurricanes Making
Landfall in the County
Monroe, FL (Keys) 14.8%
Miami-Dade, FL 5.2%
Terrebonne, LA 4.9%
Matagorda, TX 4.4%
Kenedy, TX 4.0%
Palm Beach, FL 3.8%
Jim Wells, TX 3.4%
Hidalgo, TX 3.1%
Charleston, SC 3.0%
Brazoria, TX 3.0%

[StormTracker]

Here's some additional info that I came across that I thought would be a nice little interjection into this thread!

http://www.saj.usace.army.mil/Divisions/Executive/Branches/CCO/FeatureStoriesArchive/2010/APR30b_FeatureStory.htm