DT/Wxrisk.com Summer 2010/Hurricane Forecast

[KWT]

I agree with SouthernGale, why couldn't we see 20+ systems though most agencies won't predict that many simply because it is far above what the typical average season brings (and I wouldn't either probably). The conditions are really lining up for an active and possibly hyperactive season. Factors include above normal SSTs and lack of el Nino, among others. The wild card is if La Nina develops by the peak of the season in Aug-Oct. and just how strong La Nina will be. Some possible negatives could also include lingering SAL and high trades but most models (ECMWF) weaken the trades by later in the summer and leave an area of below normal pressure for much of the Caribbean and MDR, which would favor development.

I think if La Nina does develop too strongly its going to have a slight negative on the hurricane season, probably cap it to a 15-16NS type season.

To get 20NS you really need to be have 3 or more storms by the start of August at least unless the subtropics really explode as well like it did in 2005. Its certainly possible but I don't expect it this year, I think Jow B's range of 16-18NS is right on the money, besides really the NS aren't that important, the hurricanes and majors are clearly going to be more important.

[lonelymike]

All depends how the steering currents set up. As Jeff Masters points out it's hard to predict more than two weeks out.

[Macrocane]

I think if La Nina does develop too strongly its going to have a slight negative on the hurricane season, probably cap it to a 15-16NS type season.

To get 20NS you really need to be have 3 or more storms by the start of August at least unless the subtropics really explode as well like it did in 2005. Its certainly possible but I don't expect it this year, I think Jow B's range of 16-18NS is right on the money, besides really the NS aren't that important, the hurricanes and majors are clearly going to be more important.

I agree about a strong La Niña, if it develops we may see less named storms and they will have longer and more southern tracks, but I disagree about hurricanes being the most important because even tropical storms can be very destructive for the Caribbean and Central America.

[bvigal]

I agree about a strong La Niña, if it develops we may see less named storms and they will have longer and more southern tracks, but I disagree about hurricanes being the most important because even tropical storms can be very destructive for the Caribbean and Central America.

Macrocane, you are wise to remind readers of this point. I can recall dozens of TS's that have caused major death and destruction. Even un-organized lows can be deadly - DR/Haiti late May/early June 2004 comes to mind as an example. Was that 2000 deaths?