cycloneye wrote:From the Melbourne AFD.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
325 PM EDT WED MAY 19 2010
WILL ALSO BE TRACKING TWO FEATURES OF INTEREST THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
...ALONG WITH HOW THE SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THESE
FEATURES. THE FIRST IS THE AFOREMENTIONED WRN ATLC SHORT WAVE TROUGH
THAT WILL SPIN UP A SFC LOW SOMEWHERE BTWN 25-30N AND 70-75W. THE
SECOND AND MORE IMPACTING FEATURE (EVENTUALLY) WILL BE THE NRN
STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHICH MOVES ENEWD THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND
GRT LKS RGNS FRI/ SAT...THEN MAKES AN ABRUPT RIGHT HAND TURN ON
SUN...DROPPING EITHER SHARPLY SWD ALONG THE MID ATLC/SERN SEABOARD
(GFS SOLN) OR SSE INTO THE WRN ATLC WHERE IT PHASES WITH THE
TROUGH/LOW ALREADY THERE AND BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED (ECM SOLN).
GIVEN THE PRONOUNCED UPSTREAM AMPLIFICATION...SIGNIFICANT HGT FALLS
APPEAR LKLY ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST. EXACTLY WHERE
THIS OCCURS WILL DETERMINE THE EXTENT OF INTERACTION BTWN THE TWO
SYS...AND HENCE HAVE HUGE FCST RAMIFICATIONS LCLY...ESPEC FROM MON
ONWARD.
MON-WED...FCST BCMS UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE DISPARITY IN THE GFS/ECM
SOLNS. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE LATEST GFS IS STRONGER AND
MORE CUTOFF AT H50 THAN PREV RUNS...AND THUS HAS TRENDED TWD THE
ECM. BRAND NEW 12Z ECM HOT OFF THE PRESSES IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO
IT`S 00Z SOLN AT BOTH THE SFC AND H50...ALBEIT JUST A BIT FATHER
NORTH WITH WHERE THE STACKED LOW MOVES INTO THE SERN CONUS (CLOSER
TO THE FL/GA BORDER RATHER THAN INVOF SGJ-DAB). WHAT SEEMS MORE
CERTAIN IS THAT THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL BE FAIRLY STOUT AND WILL
RETROGRADE SWWD UNDERNEATH THE STRONG UPPER HIGH TO ITS NORTH...
EVENTUALLY WINDING UP CLOSE ENOUGH TO CTRL/NORTH FL TO PRODUCE
UNSETTLED WX BY TUE/WED. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE AN ONSHORE FLOW
REGIME...SOMETHING BTWN ENE AND NE...WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE AT LEAST SCT POPS...PSBLY HIGHER
That's an interesting discussion, however, I've seen this before in late May this time of year. I'm thinking this Low, if it develops, is going to induce a more northerly windflow for peninsula FL causing drying not more rain chances. We'll see but it is all based on the position of where this Low ends up. If FL is on the West side which I think it will be, count on it being drier than normal. Will go with the dry solution for FL at this time with 20% POPS at most and adjust as necessary based on more model runs.
