lester88 wrote:Could this be one that...
Is this the first "Bears watching" of the season?
The First Active Tropical Wave in the Atlantic
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Cryomaniac
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Re:
Is this the first "Bears watching" of the season?
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wxman57
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Re: The First Active Tropical Wave in the Atlantic
No. Shear in its path is still 30-70 kts. It's just an early season wave in a high shear environment. Nothing to be concerned about.
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Plant grower
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Re: Re:
Cryomaniac wrote:lester88 wrote:Could this be one that...
Is this the first "Bears watching" of the season?
So we are bear watching already hum
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Gustywind
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 151800
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT MAY 15 2010
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1740 UTC...
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W FROM 3N TO 10N MOVING WEST AT 10 KT.
THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN 44W AND 51W.
$$
GARCIA
AXNT20 KNHC 151800
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT MAY 15 2010
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1740 UTC...
...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W FROM 3N TO 10N MOVING WEST AT 10 KT.
THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A MOISTURE MAXIMUM EVIDENT IN TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED WEAK TO MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN 44W AND 51W.
$$
GARCIA
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JonathanBelles
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Re: The First Active Tropical Wave in the Atlantic
Storm2k.org Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
AL051510
Tropical Wave off the NNE coast of South America Bears Watching…
A tropical wave is currently moving through the far southern North Atlantic very close to the coast of South America. Chances are very low for this tropical wave to become any more developed, and the following conditions are unfavorable for development: Proximity to landmass, upper level wind shear (currently low, but is higher in the path of this tropical wave), and relative instability. Currently the SST near this tropical wave is about 29°C, well warm enough for basic development. Dry air and SAL are not likely to impact this wave. The wave has plenty of outflow to the north and west of the main area of convection and little to no circulation apparent. Convention is on a downward trend through the last 6 hours.
The wave axis is moving west to west-northwest, and will be very near land in the next 36 hours. The wave will bring moderate rain and localized wind to northern South America as it transverses across the northern part of the continent over the next few days.
The current chance for development of this tropical wave are very limited, and are estimated to be less than 5%.
Meteorology Student Jonathan -- Fact789
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to ask! I will take all comments constructively and all questions as a learning experience.
AL051510
Tropical Wave off the NNE coast of South America Bears Watching…
A tropical wave is currently moving through the far southern North Atlantic very close to the coast of South America. Chances are very low for this tropical wave to become any more developed, and the following conditions are unfavorable for development: Proximity to landmass, upper level wind shear (currently low, but is higher in the path of this tropical wave), and relative instability. Currently the SST near this tropical wave is about 29°C, well warm enough for basic development. Dry air and SAL are not likely to impact this wave. The wave has plenty of outflow to the north and west of the main area of convection and little to no circulation apparent. Convention is on a downward trend through the last 6 hours.
The wave axis is moving west to west-northwest, and will be very near land in the next 36 hours. The wave will bring moderate rain and localized wind to northern South America as it transverses across the northern part of the continent over the next few days.
The current chance for development of this tropical wave are very limited, and are estimated to be less than 5%.
Meteorology Student Jonathan -- Fact789
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
If you have any comments or questions, please feel free to ask! I will take all comments constructively and all questions as a learning experience.
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SouthFloridawx
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Re: The First Active Tropical Wave in the Atlantic
...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 17W TO THE SOUTH OF
10N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM
6N TO 11N BETWEEN 14W AND 17W.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W TO THE SOUTH OF 10N
MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 22W AND 26W MAY OR
MAY NOT BE RELATED TO JUST THIS TROPICAL WAVE. THE PRECIPITATION
MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE ITCZ.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/56W TO THE SOUTH OF
10N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA TO 10N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W.
...THE ITCZ...
FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N12W TO 4N26W TO 1N33W TO
THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF BRAZIL NEAR 2N52W. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1N BETWEEN
44W AND 46W...FROM BRAZIL NEAR 1S TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 45W AND
48W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS OF THE EQUATOR ALONG
50W IN EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 8N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/161812.shtml?
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 17W TO THE SOUTH OF
10N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM
6N TO 11N BETWEEN 14W AND 17W.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W TO THE SOUTH OF 10N
MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ARE FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 22W AND 26W MAY OR
MAY NOT BE RELATED TO JUST THIS TROPICAL WAVE. THE PRECIPITATION
MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE ITCZ.
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/56W TO THE SOUTH OF
10N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA TO 10N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W.
...THE ITCZ...
FROM THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N12W TO 4N26W TO 1N33W TO
THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF BRAZIL NEAR 2N52W. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1N BETWEEN
44W AND 46W...FROM BRAZIL NEAR 1S TO THE EQUATOR BETWEEN 45W AND
48W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS OF THE EQUATOR ALONG
50W IN EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 8N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATWDAT+shtml/161812.shtml?
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