Dr Phil Klotzbach / Dr William Gray April Outlook=15/8/4

[cycloneye]

57,he may be talking about the active period since 1995 when the averages go up.

[SETXWXLADY]

The mainstream media spreads the news.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/36217599/ns/weather/

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6 ... me=topNews

I've noticed a lot of media in hurricane prone areas running this story. Here's what our locals had to say about it.

Forecasters predicting increased risk for East Coast hurricane

Colorado State University researchers Wednesday updated their Atlantic hurricane season forecast, saying there's a 45 percent chance of a hurricane hitting the East Coast, including Florida. The historical probably is 31 percent.

http://www.kfdm.com/news/hurricane-37339-coast-season.html

I live on the TX/LA border. We have had 4 storms since 2005. This is typical of our local media. Nowhere do they mention that the odds of a storm hitting the gulf coast has risen by the exact same percentage as for the east coast.
That channel in particular were beyond terrible in the 2008 season!
Ok. I'll stop venting now. Glad there is this site to turn to. Wish everyone around here knew about it.

[KWT]

so they are predicting an average season

Significantly above average, Derek.

Not for the current warm phase it isn't , thats why I've been thinking given things are progged to be real condusive the current numbers could end up busting too low....

Also worth noting they are progging a pretty high ACE, higher then 2008 I believe...

[Derek Ortt]

since 1995... the average has been about 15/8/4. The 15 year period should be long enough for a meaningful average

[Plant grower]

8 hurricanes is alot and keep in mind those numbers could be higher than what they are showing for this season. This is what Bob Breck was referring to last night,but I am sorry this is no average cane season in the making. So far I do not think the local mets have done a good job getting the word out to the public about what we really could be facing this season.

[HURAKAN]

It's not as important how many hurricanes we see, as it's important where they form and move!

[cycloneye]

It's not as important how many hurricanes we see, as it's important where they form and move!

BINGO!

[Jagno]

The mainstream media spreads the news.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/36217599/ns/weather/

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6 ... me=topNews

I've noticed a lot of media in hurricane prone areas running this story. Here's what our locals had to say about it.

Forecasters predicting increased risk for East Coast hurricane

Colorado State University researchers Wednesday updated their Atlantic hurricane season forecast, saying there's a 45 percent chance of a hurricane hitting the East Coast, including Florida. The historical probably is 31 percent.

http://www.kfdm.com/news/hurricane-37339-coast-season.html

I live on the TX/LA border. We have had 4 storms since 2005. This is typical of our local media. Nowhere do they mention that the odds of a storm hitting the gulf coast has risen by the exact same percentage as for the east coast.
That channel in particular were beyond terrible in the 2008 season!

I live just across the Sabine from you and KPLC did this exact same report so you can just imagine how my parents reacted when I told them that the gulf coast was at an increased risk as well. You know how elderly are, if it's not on the local news then it must not be true.

[southerngale]

SETXWXLADY and Jagno... to be fair, both of those stations just ran the AP article, so they weren't putting their local spin on it.

I personally like KFDM. They are by far the best channel locally, at least IMO. I tried switching it around for updates before Ike and one of the channels was driving me nuts with an exact timetable of what was going to happen. For instance, "at 3:12 a.m. the winds will be X mph in NW BMT." etc. stuff like that. I was thinking... you've GOT to be kidding me! He had graphics showing exactly what the weather would be in a specific location at a specific time, down to the minute. This was many hours out. If he had said, "this is just what a particular model is showing," that would have been one thing, but he was quoting it verbatim, telling the viewers this is what was going to happen. I couldn't watch.

Anyway, I love Greg Bostwick and he's on KFDM.


As for the analog years... seeing 2005 as one of them is not very comforting!

[HurrikaneBryce]

I think the mid atlantic/northeast is WAY over due for a hurricane.

[ColdFusion]

It's not as important how many hurricanes we see, as it's important where they form and move!

But you have a much better chance of getting hit by a car crossing a busy road than an empty one.

[Plant grower]

It's not as important how many hurricanes we see, as it's important where they form and move!

But you have a much better chance of getting hit by a car crossing a busy road than an empty one.

You got that right.

[SETXWXLADY]

I live just across the Sabine from you and KPLC did this exact same report so you can just imagine how my parents reacted when I told them that the gulf coast was at an increased risk as well. You know how elderly are, if it's not on the local news then it must not be true.

Jagno, That's the way it is with my parents as well and I'm sure many others around here. I can't imagine anyone around here at this point not being prepared for hurricane season. But I've been surprised before. I spread the word as much as I can for all the good it does.

Southerngale, To be fair, at least they ran some story about it when they released it. Unlike others. And yeah, Greg's pretty good. It was another met, who shall remain nameless...James, lets just say he seemed to not be having a good tropical forecast season in '08. But he did say that he told Uncle Larry, he learned a lot. Lol.