National Hurricane Conference Questions

[Cyclenall]

It was mentioned that India will be launching a satellite with capabilities similar to that of QuikSCAT this year. It's possible that they may share the data with us by the 2011-2012 season. India doesn't like to share much, though.

That's interesting, do you know the name of this satellite and when (specific date) India will be launching it? If India doesn't share it, maybe an agreement can be made in the form of payment for data?

[gatorcane]

Thanks Wxman for the detailed feedback. Regarding the long-range ECMWF. If pressures are indeed weak which could allow more storms, hopefully the steering flow would mean many "fish" storms.

So although the season would be quite active from a Cape Verde perspective, perhaps very few, if any, big systems manage to make it far west enough to pose problems.

BTW - here is what happened in 1995, the year WxMan mentioned. Lots of Cape Verde systems but all of them recurving away from the U.S. However, note Puerto Rico and the Leewards were not spared.

[wxman57]

Unfortunately, the Caribbean should be quite favorable for development as well. And anything that develops there will be hitting land in the Caribbean and also quite likely the U.S.

[brunota2003]

So what I pick up from that is, the stronger the high aloft, the stronger the hurricane will be because the high helps "evacuate" more air, which results in more air being needed to replace the air leaving (which also decreases pressure, hence the air moving in to replace it).

So, thinking about cyclones in the past, in order to make up for lower than usual levels of SSTs, cyclones like Vince or Hurricane Epsilon (especially) needed extremely strong highs above them in order to "make" up for the lack of warmer SSTs to contribute to more air moving around, correct? Which would explain why some storms tend to be more resistant to cooling waters than others.

"Assuming" that that is correct, what would cause the high aloft to weaken or strengthen? And lastly, how good of a handle do models have at forecasting this high, if it is really important to development/intensification?

[wxman57]

So what I pick up from that is, the stronger the high aloft, the stronger the hurricane will be because the high helps "evacuate" more air, which results in more air being needed to replace the air leaving (which also decreases pressure, hence the air moving in to replace it).

So, thinking about cyclones in the past, in order to make up for lower than usual levels of SSTs, cyclones like Vince or Hurricane Epsilon (especially) needed extremely strong highs above them in order to "make" up for the lack of warmer SSTs to contribute to more air moving around, correct? Which would explain why some storms tend to be more resistant to cooling waters than others.

"Assuming" that that is correct, what would cause the high aloft to weaken or strengthen? And lastly, how good of a handle do models have at forecasting this high, if it is really important to development/intensification?

Go back to this page:
http://www.newmediastudio.org/DataDisco ... truct.html

The upper-level anticyclonic flow isn't independent of the hurricane, it's part of the hurricane's circulation aloft.

[brunota2003]

So they both strengthen and weaken at the same time, if they are one? Neither affect the other, because they are one and the same.

[aerology]

My personal take on this seasons storms, the analog years that best suit the coming season are 1992, 1974, 1956, 1955, 1936, 1919, 1918, with a slow start to the season then an more intense finish in last two weeks of September and most of October.

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