Which ones will be the big ones for 2010?

[Cleveland Kent Evans]

I really don't make predictions in this regard.

But as someone with a major interest in the naming of tropical storms, I would prefer IF any hurricanes cause enough damage to have the names retired, that they be the names which have been on the list the longest. I don't like it when a "replacement" name is retired after its first use.

The names on this year's list which have been on it ever since its first use in 1980 are Bonnie, Danielle, Earl, Hermine, Karl, Lisa, Nicole, Otto, Paula, Richard, Shary, Tomas, Virginie, and Walter. None past Otto have ever been used even once.

Of course I hope there is no storm bad enough to be retired, but my first choice if one has to be would be Earl. Only three E names have been retired in history, and no male E names have ever been retired. My second choice would be Bonnie; only three B names have been retired, though two (Betsy and Beulah) were female. After those two, I'd be equally happy to see any of the other names that have been listed for 30 years go.

I especially don't want to see Colin, Fiona, Igor, or Julia be really bad storms because it would be their first use since replacing Charley, Frances, Ivan, and Jeanne from 2004.

[OuterBanker]

I can see it now, on how to pronounce Igor.

Will it be E-gore like in Frankenstein?

Or will it be I-gore like in Young Frankenstein?

Hint: It helps if you're old and have a rather warped since of humor.

Geeze, where do they come up with these names?

[OuterBanker]

Hooray! I just discovered my repost problem. I came in after weekend and discovered that s2k was still an open tag. I refreshed and reposted by accident.

Sorry, I will be more aware in the future.

[HouTXmetro]

I'm getting late season bad vibes about Paula....that name sounds like one for the record books.

[Hurricaneman]

Alex: Apr 29 45mph subtropical fish storm
Bonnie: Jun 15 60 mph tropical storm forms in the carribean and makes landfall in Mobile, Al
Colin: July 4th 50 mph tropical storm first cape verde storm becomes sheared out and dies
DANIELLE: first major hurricane of the year Aug 10th forms off the east coast peaks at 120 mph while scraping by the North Carolina coast and goes just out to sea
Earl: Aug 12th 80mph Hurricane forms in the GOM and makes landfall in Texas as a 65mph tropical storm
FIONA: Second Cape Verde storm Aug 17th Peaks at 155mph and hits bermuda as a 115mph Hurricane and out to sea
Gaston: Aug 25th Forms off the east coast but recurves as a 50mph fish
Hermine: Aug 26th Forms from a Extratropical storm in the middle of the atlantic 40mph
IGOR: Sept 3rd The big one of the season third Cape Verde storm of the season goes just north of Puerto Rico as a 140mph Hurricane heads wnw towards Florida and peaks in the Bahamas as a 180mph hurricane before getting sheared a bit making landfall in Florida as a 150mph Hurricane reemerges in the GOM and makes landfall again in Beaumont TX as a 120 mph Hurricane
Julia: Sept 10th Fourth Cape Verde storm quickly recurves as a 45mph tropical storm
Karl: Sept 13th forms in the Northeast atlantic and makes landfall in Portugal as a 40mph tropical storm
Lisa: Sept 25th Forms off the east coast as a 80mph hurricane move towards North Carolina before turning away and being a fish
Matthew: Sept 27th Fifth Cape verde storm 60mph tropical storm and recurves at about 50W
NICOLE: Oct 10th Forms in the Carribean and rapidly develops and peaks at 175mph hurricane before recurving towards Florida and making landfall in Ft Myers as a 125mph hurricane and moves northeast parralelling the east coast and making a second landfall at Montauk pt NY as a 100mph hurricane
Otto: Oct 11th Forms in the middle of the atlantic from an tropical transition from an extratropical storm heads east and hits the canary islands as a 50mph tropical storm
Paula: Oct 30th Short lived tropical storm in the carribean goes extratropical before landfall in Florida 40mph
Richard: Nov 13th forms near panama peaks at 85mph as it makes landfall in Niceragua

[KWT]

Well thats certainly a very busy season there hurricaneman, 2 category-5 hurricanes is immense in any season, yet alone the fact that you have another storm peaking just under!

Still hopefully that doesn't happen!

[vbhoutex]

Hurricaneman, I don't like Earl or Igor!! NOT another I storm for Texas!!! Based on your thoughts I think I will stay away from Florida this season too.

[jinftl]

Depending on the landfall location in Florida.....if it is in Broward or Miami-Dade county in this hypothetical scenario, we could see Igor ousting Katrina as the costliest hurricane to date. A strong Cat 4, esp if it is a large storm, could be a repeat of the 1926 Miami Hurricane, which by most estimates it it hit today, would cause twice the damage $ of Katrina....and would be the first storm to exceed $100 billion in damage (estimates for an identical storm from 1926 hitting the same locations today is just north of $160 billion in damage).

IGOR: Sept 3rd The big one of the season third Cape Verde storm of the season goes just north of Puerto Rico as a 140mph Hurricane heads wnw towards Florida and peaks in the Bahamas as a 180mph hurricane before getting sheared a bit making landfall in Florida as a 150mph Hurricane reemerges in the GOM and makes landfall again in Beaumont TX as a 120 mph Hurricane

[gtalum]

With a name like Igor, i don't see any way the "I" storm can't be an absolute monster. I'm checking my shutters now...

[KWT]

Wouldn't it be somewhat ironic if Igor ended up bring a sheared TS like TS lee in 2005!

[OuterBanker]

Igor, I'm sorry I just can't get over the name.

I know they are supposed to be names in Spanish, French, English or names that would be common in areas that get hurricanes. I guess I just haven't heard of the Transalvanian Islands.

Anyway I'm sure it will be a bad one.

Too bad Marty Feldman isn't around anymore to help us track it.

[Andrew92]

Well I'm going WAY off the beaten path....I don't care how sweet and innocent she sounds, because the same might have been said about Camille, Fifi, Alicia, Elena, or Gloria, and they all wound up being big and bad. I've had a really itchy vibe about (don't laugh) HERMINE. Underachiever that she's been, I smell a snake with this name. Baaaaaaaad vibes all around. I think Hermine hits someone, probably along the Gulf, hard. C3 or even C4 at landfall. If it's the Florida Peninsula, I could even see her pull a Donna.

There's also one name on this list I always feel leery about, and do once again: Danielle. That said, I don't smell her quite like Hermine, but I'll probably have a strange vibe with Danielle until she's retired.

Just not seeing it with Gastor and Igor this time around for some reason.

-Andrew92

[SETXWXLADY]

IGOR: Sept 3rd The big one of the season third Cape Verde storm of the season goes just north of Puerto Rico as a 140mph Hurricane heads wnw towards Florida and peaks in the Bahamas as a 180mph hurricane before getting sheared a bit making landfall in Florida as a 150mph Hurricane reemerges in the GOM and makes landfall again in Beaumont TX as a 120 mph Hurricane

Hurricaneman, I'm sure you're a very nice man. But ummmm. NO! NO! AND NO! One thing in our (Beaumont,TX area) favor is that of all landfalling hurricanes to strike Texas only one went through Florida. Of course never say never in the tropics. No hurricane ever went where Ike did and then came into the gulf. So he threw climatology out the window. I'm not too sure which this year will be the bad one(s). Hopefully none. But I don't like the R name next year for Rita's replacement - Rina! Sigh that's just so wrong. Lol.

[CrazyC83]

Here is my bold prediction:

Tropical Storm Alex (June 27 - 28)

Early season Gulf storm that develops just off the Florida Panhandle and quickly makes landfall. Peak intensity: 50 kt/1003mb. Landfall intensity: 50 kt/1003mb.

Tropical Storm Bonnie (August 9 - 12)

Cape Verde tries to get something going, but it gets sheared apart partly by nearby Colin and dissipates deep in the Atlantic. Peak intensity: 45 kt/1001mb.

Hurricane Colin (August 10 - 14)

Another nearby Cape Verde storm. Much like in 2004, a "Bonnie and Clyde"-like scenario. This time though, it happens well out to sea with a Fujiwhara effect. First hurricane of the year, but only a Category 1 with no real land impact before shear gets to it. Peak intensity: 70 kt/984mb.

Hurricane Danielle (August 23 - 28)

A deep-tropics hurricane that gets spawn by another tropical wave but develops near the Windwards. Unaffected by the Bermuda High, it just steers far west and rapidly intensifies into the first major hurricane just before landfall in Central America as a Category 3. Peak intensity: 105 kt/961mb. Landfall intensity: 105 kt/961mb.

Hurricane Earl (August 29 - September 4)

A rather subtropical-looking hurricane develops off the North Carolina coast. The Bermuda High picks it up and sends it to sea with little harm but it becomes surprisingly intense at a high latitude south of Nova Scotia. Peak intensity: 95 kt/956mb.

Tropical Storm Fiona (September 2 - 4)

Cape Verde throws another dud at us. Turns very early and gets eaten by shear. Peak intensity: 40 kt/1003mb.

Tropical Storm Gaston (September 3 - 6)

Another short lived storm develops off the Florida coast. It turns northward and makes landfall in South Carolina, almost identical to 2004's Gaston, just under hurricane strength. Peak intensity: 60 kt/988mb. Landfall intensity: 60 kt/988mb.

Hurricane Hermine (September 7 - 20)

The first real long-track storm of 2010. Develops off Cape Verde and intensifies to a strong Category 4 northeast of the Lesser Antilles. Shoots for the hole between Bermuda and the US East Coast and only brushes the Eastern Seaboard as it weakens and becomes extratropical. Peak intensity: 130 kt/935mb.

Hurricane Igor (September 10 - 21)

Almost directly follows in Hermine's tracks, except farther south and slams into the NE Caribbean as a strengthening Category 2. It bombs into a very strong Category 5 in the Caribbean just south of Puerto Rico and with weak steering currents, slams into Hispaniola at that intensity and stalls out. Weakens to a tropical storm before strengthening into a Category 2 again, hitting Bermuda along the way. Peak intensity: 150 kt/921mb. Landfall intensity: 140 kt/925mb (Haiti), 85 kt/972mb (Bermuda)

Tropical Storm Julia (September 16 - 18)

A high-latitude storm ahead of Hermine. It quickly becomes extratropical while strengthening near Newfoundland. Peak intensity (while tropical): 55 kt/985mb.

Hurricane Karl (September 22 - October 3)

Yet another Cape Verde storm trapped in the wake of Hermine and Igor and struggles for a long time. Once in the Gulf Stream, it strengthens to a Category 2 before turning into Atlantic Canada losing little strength in the high latitudes. Peak intensity: 90 kt/963mb. Landfall intensity: 80 kt/968mb.

Tropical Storm Lisa (October 4 - 5)

The quiet Gulf of Mexico tries to get something going, but it quickly makes landfall in Louisiana barely reaching TS strength. Peak intensity: 35 kt/1009mb. Landfall intensity: 35 kt/1009mb.

Hurricane Matthew (October 12 - 18)

Cape Verde tries to spin off a late season storm, it gets trapped on the east side of the ridge and just meanders around the eastern Atlantic before dissipating. Peak intensity: 65 kt/987mb.

Hurricane Nicole (October 14 - 22)

A worst-case scenario track for sure for many. It develops in the central Caribbean, strengthens to Category 3 and gives Hispaniola its second big hit of the season. It weakens to Category 1 moving fairly fast, but doesn't go out to sea - a Hazel-like path takes place as it strengthens to Category 3 and becomes HUGE. It makes landfall in North Carolina and while becoming extratropical, spreads hurricane-force winds over a massive area up to and beyond the Great Lakes and east to New England, including the entire Northeast Corridor. Peak intensity: 110 kt/941mb. Landfall intensity: 100 kt/953mb (Haiti), 105 kt/944mb (North Carolina)

Tropical Storm Otto (November 24 - 28)

Classic late-season meandering storm in the central Atlantic. Never really affects anyone as it moves erratically. Peak intensity: 55 kt/992mb.

[CrazyC83]

If my prediction holds true, Hispaniola gets blasted and the Leewards get hit hard as well. The Gulf coast and Florida really catch a nice break, but the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic take a hard hit as well. Central America also gets hit early.

[KWT]

Yeah Haiti get hammered, good job that it isn't likely given how severe they got hit in 2008, can't see two years as severe as 2008 and what your suggesting so close to each other...well I'd hope not anyway!

Certainly wouldn't like Igor given the state of things after the big earthquake, would be the biggest hit in that reigon if it came off since David I'd guess?

I personally think this is a NE Caribbean/Florida/East Coast year myself, I think the subtropical high belt will remain weaker then normal through the summer given plenty of recurve chances, but obviously if any form to ofar west then the odds are pretty high for a big hitter.

[CrazyC83]

Also the Gulf of Mexico is cooler than normal right now, so that may temper things some there. I think any Gulf storms would have to pretty much develop in that region, since they would either recurve or remain way too far south.

Yes, that would be the biggest hit for Hispaniola since David.

[brunota2003]

Fiona, Hermine, Igor, and Lisa. FL/TX/NC/LA as the main U.S. based threat areas this hurricane season (most likely in that order).

[LaBreeze]

Earl and Lisa - watch'em.

[Old-TimeCane]

Fiona, Hermine, Igor, and Lisa. FL/TX/NC/LA as the main U.S. based threat areas this hurricane season (most likely in that order).

If you're state order goes along with your name order, then I have a request that you change Igor's location.

I know I'm in SC and not NC, but I'm close to the border, and while I might welcome some rain from a distant brush from someone offshore, I don't want anything named Igor anywhere close to me!