MSLP forecast to be low during peak of 2010 Atlantic season

[wxman57]

Actually, "only" 11 named storms formed in the Caribbean or GoM in 2005. The other 17 formed north or east of the Caribbean. But the Caribbean and MDR look really primed for action this year. I do expect an active Cape Verde season, and probably a number of those would recurve east of the Caribbean. But not all will recurve, and not all will form so form so far east that they miss the Caribbean and are no threat to the U.S. Perhaps half (or more) will form in areas that will threaten the Caribbean and U.S.

[KWT]

I think that shows just how insane the 2005 season was that we say only 11 storms formed in the gulf/Caribbean region!

That being said there is no doubt that 2005 was a west based season, I'm personally expecting a very busy season...

[drezee]

Actually, "only" 11 named storms formed in the Caribbean or GoM in 2005. The other 17 formed north or east of the Caribbean. But the Caribbean and MDR look really primed for action this year. I do expect an active Cape Verde season, and probably a number of those would recurve east of the Caribbean. But not all will recurve, and not all will form so form so far east that they miss the Caribbean and are no threat to the U.S. Perhaps half (or more) will form in areas that will threaten the Caribbean and U.S.

Coming from you, this is quite ominous...the stars are seemingly aligning for such a thing...

[HURAKAN]

Actually, "only" 11 named storms formed in the Caribbean or GoM in 2005. The other 17 formed north or east of the Caribbean. But the Caribbean and MDR look really primed for action this year. I do expect an active Cape Verde season, and probably a number of those would recurve east of the Caribbean. But not all will recurve, and not all will form so form so far east that they miss the Caribbean and are no threat to the U.S. Perhaps half (or more) will form in areas that will threaten the Caribbean and U.S.

Coming from you, this is quite ominous...the stars are seemingly aligning for such a thing...

[OuterBanker]

Interesting note about mslp maps. They are the opposite of all the others. We associate reds and oranges with caution and blues with relief. In sst's, low pressures, winds, waves, rains, etc all reds and oranges are bad. You would think mslp would be the same with lower pressures being reds and oranges since lower pressures are associated with bad weather. It's a little deceiving, you would think that the blues would be a good thing, not so. Why the difference?

[Ptarmigan]

Actually, "only" 11 named storms formed in the Caribbean or GoM in 2005. The other 17 formed north or east of the Caribbean. But the Caribbean and MDR look really primed for action this year. I do expect an active Cape Verde season, and probably a number of those would recurve east of the Caribbean. But not all will recurve, and not all will form so form so far east that they miss the Caribbean and are no threat to the U.S. Perhaps half (or more) will form in areas that will threaten the Caribbean and U.S.

Still, 11 named storms in the Caribbean or Gulf of Mexico is a lot by any stretch of the imagination. That's a whole season's worth right there!

[Macrocane]

Interesting note about mslp maps. They are the opposite of all the others. We associate reds and oranges with caution and blues with relief. In sst's, low pressures, winds, waves, rains, etc all reds and oranges are bad. You would think mslp would be the same with lower pressures being reds and oranges since lower pressures are associated with bad weather. It's a little deceiving, you would think that the blues would be a good thing, not so. Why the difference?

I guess it's because of the anomaly. Negative anomalies are blue positie anomalies are red, it's like El Niño anomalies that are represented in red and La Niña in blue and they could be good or bad depending on the region were you live and the effects that they have in those regions. Sometimed low temperatures are also associated with the blue color and high temperatures with red.

[OuterBanker]

Interesting note about mslp maps. They are the opposite of all the others. We associate reds and oranges with caution and blues with relief. In sst's, low pressures, winds, waves, rains, etc all reds and oranges are bad. You would think mslp would be the same with lower pressures being reds and oranges since lower pressures are associated with bad weather. It's a little deceiving, you would think that the blues would be a good thing, not so. Why the difference?

[Macrocane]

I already answered you

[OuterBanker]

Oops, sorry Macrocane I seemed to have reposted somehow.

Anyway this is how I understand that this season is shaping up.

1 - Higher sst's off coast of Africa (remember last year when everything went poof in the cold water off Africa) all the way through the itcz to the GOM.

2 - Lower pressures in the same areas as the higher sst's.

3 - Higher humidity's (less dry air, which is attributed to being the main cause of last year's slow season), again in the same areas as above.

4 - Slightly cooler waters north of the itcz which will assist in uplift because of the contrast of sst's.

5 - A waning El Nino to neutral conditions during the season.

Sure looks like I should make sure all my insurance is in place, that my generator is still working, and that my hurricane protection is easy to access.

There are a couple encouraging signs though.

1 - El Nino is still present (hang in there fella).

2 - There doesn't seem to be any media hype scaring the general public half to death. All of these indicators seem to be known only by pro mets and weather nerds.

[brunota2003]

Don't forget wind shear! Last year those storms were being ripped to shreds, along with being wrung dry.

[RL3AO]

2 - There doesn't seem to be any media hype scaring the general public half to death. All of these indicators seem to be known only by pro mets and weather nerds.

Its only March.

[jinftl]

I was in my elevator at work this afternoon, on my way out to grab a quick bite to eat. I overheard a conversation where someone was asking the other person, 'so how does the upcoming hurricane season look for us?'. The co-worker's reply, 'looks like a busy one shaping up, water temps in the tropical atlantic are way above normal and looks like pressure readings could be very low, which is not something you want to see.' To that, the other person chuckled and said, 'uh-oh, if mr. disaster says it's time to board up, i better head to home depot!'

It was slightly surreal overhearing such a conversation...who knew there were other storm geeks in the same building I work in.....and as the last poster said, it is only March, and any dialogue of this sort is early. Here in south florida, our focus is simply on a 10-day forecast with no low temps below 60 deg.....for now.

[windycity]

Lets all pray that somehow this season doesn't become a costly one for our country. We simply can't afford it. While i love tracking a storms path into fishland, i hate seeing them as they head towards land.

[windycity]

Looking back at the MSLP charts from the past two years is very interesting when compared to present readings.

[drezee]

Looking back at the MSLP charts from the past two years is very interesting when compared to present readings.

I'll bite...how so?

[windycity]

Pressures were shown to be fairly high, even during August and Sept. Throw in the other factors, and any storm that tried to get going, was doomed from the start. This year will be different.Its kinda fun to go back a couple of years at this time ( in the achives), to kinda see how conditions were stacking up compared to now. I remember 2005, and hearing the pro mets remark about how low the pressures were and of course, how high the SST's were.

[JtSmarts]

Pressures were shown to be fairly high, even during August and Sept. Throw in the other factors, and any storm that tried to get going, was doomed from the start. This year will be different.Its kinda fun to go back a couple of years at this time ( in the achives), to kinda see how conditions were stacking up compared to now. I remember 2005, and hearing the pro mets remark about how low the pressures were and of course, how high the SST's were.

I'm going back to read those posts from March/April 2005 right now to get a sense of what the mood was around here back then.

[Cookie]

Pressures were shown to be fairly high, even during August and Sept. Throw in the other factors, and any storm that tried to get going, was doomed from the start. This year will be different.Its kinda fun to go back a couple of years at this time ( in the achives), to kinda see how conditions were stacking up compared to now. I remember 2005, and hearing the pro mets remark about how low the pressures were and of course, how high the SST's were.

I'm going back to read those posts from March/April 2005 right now to get a sense of what the mood was around here back then.

I dont have time to read back, but let me know what the mood was like

[JtSmarts]

Pressures were shown to be fairly high, even during August and Sept. Throw in the other factors, and any storm that tried to get going, was doomed from the start. This year will be different.Its kinda fun to go back a couple of years at this time ( in the achives), to kinda see how conditions were stacking up compared to now. I remember 2005, and hearing the pro mets remark about how low the pressures were and of course, how high the SST's were.

I'm going back to read those posts from March/April 2005 right now to get a sense of what the mood was around here back then.

I dont have time to read back, but let me know what the mood was like

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=60134

This was an update for Dr. Gray's Forecast. He upped his numbers to 13/7/3 ( )

The general mood of the forum was expecting a season that was active but it seems very few thought 2005 would be as bad or worse than 2004. There was a lot of talk about neutral conditions versus El Nino/La Nina (as is going on right now). However, after 2004 many posters thought that Florida would a get a break (compared to 2004) and other areas would be major targets.