Area of Disturbed Weather in Western Caribbean

[Ed Mahmoud]

Noted (er, sort of, not really) tropical model the WRF has much of the moisture coming out of the Caribbean with the XTROP low, but leaves some behind and keeps pressures low.


If nothing else, this should keep "Talking Tropics" semi-active, plus, while I don't have a feel for it yet, I have hopes that the EPAC invest will ultimately affect the sensible weather here in Texas.

Hopefully, but the time the Northern Hemisphere tropics are a well and truly flogged horse, it'll be time to look forward to frozen precip affecting the annual Mahmoud family pilgrimage back to the DFW Metroplex for the Thanksgiving holiday. My mother makes a most excellent imitation crab and cheese dip, using 'Old Bay' seasoning, and if we get another sleet filled holiday like the one that produced the Leon Lett ice bowl game against Miami, well, I'll be more than satisfied. (Edit to add- not just sleet, but thunder sleet. It was awesome!)

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

WELL-Defined Cyclonic turning at 18N 83W, over the NW Caribbean,
and a lot of heavy convection around it as well. A baroclinic
low is showing up in the gulf of mexico, and the two areas
are likely to combine into an extratropical system with a lot
of rain...

http://metofis.rsmas.miami.edu/~dortt/s ... 1_loop.gif

[AJC3]

Noted (er, sort of, not really) tropical model the WRF has much of the moisture coming out of the Caribbean with the XTROP low, but leaves some behind and keeps pressures low.

If nothing else, this should keep "Talking Tropics" semi-active, plus, while I don't have a feel for it yet, I have hopes that the EPAC invest will ultimately affect the sensible weather here in Texas.

Hopefully, but the time the Northern Hemisphere tropics are a well and truly flogged horse, it'll be time to look forward to frozen precip affecting the annual Mahmoud family pilgrimage back to the DFW Metroplex for the Thanksgiving holiday. My mother makes a most excellent imitation crab and cheese dip, using 'Old Bay' seasoning, and if we get another sleet filled holiday like the one that produced the Leon Lett ice bowl game against Miami, well, I'll be more than satisfied. (Edit to add- not just sleet, but thunder sleet. It was awesome!)

Noticed that as well, Ed. There could be a lingering remnant area of disturbed weather that festers down there past the next several days, which frequently happens this time of year. However the next two strong cold frontal passages (SAT night and TUE) will really do a number on the remaining stored heat content in the GOMEX and around FL (outside of the narrow ribbon of the GS/loop current).

Bottom line here is that it's very unlikely for a TC to form over the next several days, and even in the unlikely event that one did, it would need to stay QSTNRY well south of the CONUS to have any future.

[Sanibel]

Goes to show that tropical systems depend on a lining up of many features to form. We got the development this year over the late season warm waters of the Caribbean but didn't have the shear line up for formation. 80 knots of shear is doom for any tropical system. 2008 was a lucky year for Florida. Many storms went the other way or were diminished by land or shear.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Florida had Fay, and who knows, base don the eye feature, it could be upgraded to a hurricane by the instant replay booth.

Other than a major hurricane driving a massive storm surge into Wall Street or up Delaware Bay into PHL, this has been an action packed season.

I do feel a bit for you and AJC3, while it has snowed here within the last four years, meaning exciting weather never ends, been a lot longer than that since significant winter wx in your part of the state. I guess trying to anticipate inland frosts in Orange County (where I have consumed beer) is a challenge, for shear excitement, nothing like seeing precip and the magic 284/540 thicknesses/freezing 850 isotherm overhead on a 252 hour run of the 6Z GFS.

[gatorcane]

I would be shocked if this area does not receive some kind of NHC code (probably yellow) at the 2:00PM EST update. This area is looking better than many areas that have been tagged as invest areas.

[gatorcane]

Visible shot:

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...IF ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO
OCCUR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM OVER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AMERICA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BRENNAN/PASCH

[gatorcane]

indeed it is mentioned but as expected little or no development, however, it appears there is a chance

[gatorcane]

Not much shear over this area at the moment. Look at the big anticyclone centered in the SW Caribbean. But look at all of the strong shear to the north in the GOM:

[ciclonson]

Gatorcane, thanks for your posts on this area. Looks like you are a one-man show today and I wanted you to know that some of us "lurkers" appreciate your posts.

[Blown Away]

Gatorcane, are there any models that develop a TC out of this area?

[gatorcane]

Gatorcane, thanks for your posts on this area. Looks like you are a one-man show today and I wanted you to know that some of us "lurkers" appreciate your posts.

No problem, if it develops its likely to stay on the weak side due to the shear in the GOM. But right now you can see the big anticyclone over the Western Caribbean that has built in. If you loop this Water vapor loop, you can see the clockwise flow of clouds around the disturbed area in the Western Caribbean.

So conditions are good for development right now, but there just is no low-level vorticity at the moment, just a weak trough.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

[gatorcane]

Gatorcane, are there any models that develop a TC out of this area?

models are not too enthusiastic, its likely they see the strong shear lurking to the north in the GOM where this area is headed for.

[wxman57]

Still looks like just a weak frontal (non-tropical) low. Tremendous shear across the Gulf.

[wyq614]

The weather forecast program of Cubavision says this low pressure area is moving northward and heavy rain could occur in the Province of Pinar del Río and parts of province of Habana. For the rest of Cuba, also expect isolated thunderstorms.

[wxman57]

The "storm" arising from this NW Caribbean disturbance has already formed, but you're looking in the wrong area. It's just where the Canadian model was developing and moving it - right into the Florida Panhandle. Winds just east of the cold front are 30-35 kts offshore. There's nothing in the NW Caribbean now, just rising pressure and decreasing storms.

So this is what all the models were forecasting - not much of a TC:

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The "storm" arising from this NW Caribbean disturbance has already formed, but you're looking in the wrong area. It's just where the Canadian model was developing and moving it - right into the Florida Panhandle. Winds just east of the cold front are 30-35 kts offshore.

Yup last night they were easily gusting to 40 mph, some pretty strong
extratropical cyclonic gusts I've observed in a while.
Those 35 knot winds offshore could make for a rough
day on the waters today.

[Ed Mahmoud]

The "storm" arising from this NW Caribbean disturbance has already formed, but you're looking in the wrong area. It's just where the Canadian model was developing and moving it - right into the Florida Panhandle. Winds just east of the cold front are 30-35 kts offshore.

Yup last night they were easily gusting to 40 mph, some pretty strong
extratropical cyclonic gusts I've observed in a while.
Those 35 knot winds offshore could make for a rough
day on the waters today.

I didn't have a computer in my apartment, and thus was more dependent on TWC back when I was in college, but I remember the "Super Storm" (93, wasn't it?) that postponed the NASCAR race at Atlanta for snow, and between the tornadoes and severe weather, and actual storm surge flooding, that intense winter storm gave parts of Gulf Coast Florida weather more normally seen in a tropical cyclone.

Most posters will become scarce until next June now, but the weather never sleeps.

[Sanibel]

Looks like something is down there in the Gulf of Honduras area from the spin. But I wouldn't put any stock in it for reasons that don't need to be spelled out - including weakening tropical potential and being over the same spot too long and shear.