Tropical Wave at 54w

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

Producing convection but I don't see any rotation in the clouds.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 261035
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
BROAD AREA OF INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG TO
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 33W-43W.

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 261152
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI SEP 26 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM KYLE...LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

THE WELL-DEFINED NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS NOW LOCATED
OVER CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND.
STRONG WINDS...COASTAL FLOODING...HIGH SURF...AND DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ALONG THE COASTS OF NORTH AND SOUTH
CAROLINA TODAY...BUT COULD CONTINUE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE U.S.
MID-ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. INTERESTS ALONG THE
U.S. EAST COAST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION NORTHWARD TO NEW
ENGLAND SHOULD MONITOR STATEMENTS FROM THEIR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE FORECAST OFFICES...AND ALSO HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY
THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION AND
WARNINGS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IS
MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THERE ARE SOME
SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...BUT THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND
OVER THE WESTERN YUCATAN BEFORE ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT CAN
OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE SYSTEM COULD STILL BRING HEAVY RAINS TO
PORTIONS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED ABOUT 1000 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY FAVORABLE FOR SLOW DEVELOPMENT...THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME LESS FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON KYLE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT31
AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT1. FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED
UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21 AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN

[bvigal]

I pulled this pic up to look at said 'blob'. Take a look at that new dust coming off Africa!

Find latest pic at: http://www.esl.lsu.edu/webpics/goes/Storm/Atlantic/latest_lc.jpg

[Sanibel]

There's a clear spin evident to this at the low level. However it is late in the season for CV belt systems and shear is reaching far south. The disturbance is noticeably thin and weak. My guess is even if it did form it would head out to sea.


Interesting to see what this last disturbance will do.

[HURAKAN]

Conditions shouldn't be very favorable for development but we need to keep an eye on it.

[Gustywind]

Conditions shouldn't be very favorable for development but we need to keep an eye on it.

Oh yeah , winds are pretty hostile it looks like as if it were the Olympics Shear Games
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html
Numerous hurddles down the road for at least a bronze medal ( an Invest )..... but as USUAL and as we're always in the PEAK of... SEPTEMBER let's see what really HAPPENS with this ONE!

[Steve H.]

Sandy, just curious but why can't I open the images you post? They are jpg or gif right? your's and Sanibels I can never open. Maybe there's an easy fix? rsvp thanks

[colbroe]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 261804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2008


TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 41W/42W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO BROADEN THE
INFLUENCE OF THIS WAVE. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELD WITH THIS WAVE
RESEMBLES A BROADER INVERTED-V PATTERN THAN WITH THE WAVE ALONG
30W...WITH SOME COUNTERCLOCKWISE CIRCULATION NOTED IN THE
MOVEMENT OF CLOUD ELEMENTS PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG
THE WAVE AXIS FROM 9N-13N. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION COVER
A BROAD AREA FROM 8N-17N BETWEEN 34W-44W.

[HURAKAN]

Sandy, just curious but why can't I open the images you post? They are jpg or gif right? your's and Sanibels I can never open. Maybe there's an easy fix? rsvp thanks

That's weird. I always save them in Photobucket and they are jpg.

[Sanibel]

Easterlies have subsided. If it does form it will exit out to sea.

[Gustywind]

AXNT20 KNHC 262359
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI SEP 26 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W/43W S OF 17N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE FIELD WITH THIS WAVE RESEMBLES A BROADER
INVERTED-V PATTERN THAN WITH THE WAVE ALONG 30W...WITH SOME
COUNTERCLOCKWISE CIRCULATION NOTED IN THE MOVEMENT OF CLOUD
ELEMENTS PER SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG THE WAVE AXIS FROM 9N-13N.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 37W-43W.

[Steve H.]

Sandy, Never mind. The problem was that I was at work. They use a different program to view images. My bad.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 270605
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 20N48W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS CYCLONIC CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN
38W AND 43W...AND FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 46W AND 54W.

[cycloneye]

542
ABNT20 KNHC 271154
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM KYLE...LOCATED ABOUT 295 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE NEAR A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER LAND FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO HINDER ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...HEAVY
RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE AND GUATEMALA DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION. HOWEVER...
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT
AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE

[HURAKAN]

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 271155
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2008

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 10 KT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 20N48W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THIS CYCLONIC CENTER. NUMEROUS STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 38W AND 40W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
11N TO 13N BETWEEN 47W AND 53W.

[Fego]

Looks like the wave (red lines) is ahead of the convection. The white lines correspond to the wave behind (33W).

[cycloneye]

ABNT20 KNHC 271739
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT SEP 27 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM KYLE...LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE NEAR A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER LAND FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO HINDER ANY SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...HEAVY
RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
MEXICO...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...BELIZE AND GUATEMALA DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE LESSER
ANTILLES IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

A LARGE NON-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL
NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN ABOUT 400 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE
WESTERNMOST AZORES. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO SLOWLY
ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS THE LOW MOVES WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$

FORECASTER BLAKE