TS Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread 12

[jasons2k]

In Delta's defense, I've always seen him call it like it is. Plus the guy doesn't even live on the coast

I am concerned about the GFS and I will tell you why. It's just going to swing everything further east again further enhancing the error (and the hype).

No, I'm not thinking E is coming to Texas, at least not tonight. But I can tell you I'm not buying the GFS or the models that use its input. As pointed out by many PRO mets (here and at other sources I rely on), it's out to lunch with Ernesto's behavior with this ridge setup. So for my money, I'm looking at the GFDN, CONU, and this new NCAR-WRF as they are not "contaminated".

[dwg71]

again, for the 2 millionth time

This is not moving NNW

This will not hit Haiti

This will not hit the Peninsula of Florida

GFS is again showing itself as a useless model

Are you saying that the NHC path of 11pm couldn't be off by 50 miles, that about how far they have it missing haiti. i agree that a pennisula strike seems unlikely, but this is two runs in a row of the GFS running it further east than most models.

[caneman]

again, for the 2 millionth time

This is not moving NNW

This will not hit Haiti

This will not hit the Peninsula of Florida

GFS is again showing itself as a useless model

Yep, don't think you want this saved as a copy and paste later Probably Panhandle to MS but I wouldn't bank my degree on it.

[ConvergenceZone]

again, for the 2 millionth time

This is not moving NNW

This will not hit Haiti

This will not hit the Peninsula of Florida

GFS is again showing itself as a useless model

Thanx Derek . I was wondering when a Met was going to step in and set things straight... The posts on the forum are starting to slow down tonight which is good. I think everyone is getting tired of reading the same things over and over...I think I'll check back at 11:00 on the next update before going to bed for the night...

[AtlanticWind]

Hey the gfs also shows a N C threat , where are the carolina folks?

PS why is gfs so hated by everyone , It has feelings too

[El Nino]

again, for the 2 millionth time

This is not moving NNW

This will not hit Haiti

This will not hit the Peninsula of Florida

GFS is again showing itself as a useless model

Ok, but WHY are you so sure ? What I'm seeing is that this system has gained a lot of latitude since it passed the Windward Islands.

[Weatherfreak000]

perhaps you should say probably not...insted of will not.....never say never my friend!

It's an atmospheric impossibility, it's deserving of a never.



Hurricanes just ARE NOT going to run through a ridge of high pressure. It's like the Law of Gravity. And you can't send a cane thru a ridge.

[hurricanedude]

never say never when it comes to a storm...you know it as well as I do

[ROCK]

again, for the 2 millionth time

This is not moving NNW

This will not hit Haiti

This will not hit the Peninsula of Florida

GFS is again showing itself as a useless model

Ok, but WHY are you so sure ? What I'm seeing is that this system has gained a lot of latitude since it passed the Windward Islands.

center reformed...

[hurricanedude]

highly unlikely and never is a very fine line..its like saying it will NEVER snow in Miami again...but oh yes..IT WILL

[deltadog03]

In Delta's defense, I've always seen him call it like it is. Plus the guy doesn't even live on the coast

I am concerned about the GFS and I will tell you why. It's just going to swing everything further east again further enhancing the error (and the hype).

No, I'm not thinking E is coming to Texas, at least not tonight. But I can tell you I'm not buying the GFS or the models that use its input. As pointed out by many PRO mets (here and at other sources I rely on), it's out to lunch with Ernesto's behavior with this ridge setup. So for my money, I'm looking at the GFDN, CONU, and this new NCAR-WRF as they are not "contaminated".

Thank You!!! bro....Yeah, i DONT live on the coast, far from it for that matter. However come on folks how many times have we seen this stunt from the GFS. Too many to count!!

[Stormcenter]

The NHC mentions the GFS in their 11pm discussion so obviously they take into account what it has to say.

[Derek Ortt]

the storm was supposed to gain latitude

GFS having 3 absurred runs in a row is nothing new for that model. Had about 3 consecutive absurred days during Ivan and 2 during Katrina

[jpigott]

perhaps you should say probably not...insted of will not.....never say never my friend!

It's an atmospheric impossibility, it's deserving of a never.



Hurricanes just ARE NOT going to run through a ridge of high pressure. It's like the Law of Gravity. And you can't send a cane thru a ridge.

Yea, but what if the high pressure never materializes. I live in SEFL and i can tell you it isn't here yet. Once again today we've had rain developing from our west and moving east, not exactly representative of a ridge currently in place. Not to say it isn't coming, but it isn't here yet.

[Bailey1777]

Look if you were running at a brick wall that had a conveyor belt running right to left what would happen. There are some things that are certain.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

again, for the 2 millionth time

This is not moving NNW

This will not hit Haiti

This will not hit the Peninsula of Florida

GFS is again showing itself as a useless model

Thanx Derek . I was wondering when a Met was going to step in and set things straight... The posts on the forum are starting to slow down tonight which is good. I think everyone is getting tired of reading the same things over and over...I think I'll check back at 11:00 on the next update before going to bed for the night...

Watkins just posted on another thread that the 00z Nogaps does basically the same thing as the GFS after 48 hours of the run. Guess we'll all have to bash 2 models now.

[wxmann_91]

never say never when it comes to a storm...you know it as well as I do

Definitely Derek should know that, especially recently with Ioke.

However, although I would not concur with the statement that GFS is a useless model, it is true that this run is complete trash. Doesn't make sense at all, with system driving into a huge ridge. Will throw off the consensus of course...

It is one thing when the model has consistenly shown it... it is another when it's the first run to do so.

I'm thinking there's some bad obs or imcomplete data imputed into the 0Z model suite.

[Recurve]

Thanks for the discussion of the ridge, models and motion. It seems unlikely that a NNW track over Haiti or Cuba will happen based on what I'm hearing. Hoping to avoid an evacuation order, but with the NHC track so close to Key West. I guess we'll be in line for at least TS watch/warning.

I don't want to be on here Monday night watching E rise up through the straits and suprise the Keys; Katrina last year got a heck of a lot closer than we expected, but at least couldn't strengthen (but almost did!) as it went SW across the tip of Florida. Though this would have to cross Cuba to get here, it would have some warm water in the straits I'm sure.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

The GFS shows the ridge moving west ahead of Ernie across Florida into the Gulf allowing Ernie to move north.

[AtlanticWind]

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/w ... rp&tau=072


Nogaps shift