Invest 99L E of Lesser Antilles,Comments,Sat Pics,Etc #3

[Extremeweatherguy]

11N and 51W?????The TWD of Miami at 2pm put the Low at these coordinates...I can't see nothing in that area.I see some rotation around 13N 53W...But i'am not a forecaster...Can someone explain??????

probably a mistake or they might have been using old coordinates?

[Evil Jeremy]

what strength should it be at when it gets to Florida?

[Extremeweatherguy]

what strength should it be at when it gets to Florida?

way too early to tell. For all we know it could be a weak wave/low like it is now, or it could be a hurricane (I doubt it would be a major hurricane though). There is also a chance (and probably a good one at that) this could go south or east of the state too, so I wouldn't worry too much right now.

[cheezyWXguy]

I think its gonna remain way below florida...I think its gonna track west thru the carribean, probably skirting jamaca, telling by the the steering currents map a page or 2 back

[cycloneye]

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL992006) ON 20060730 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060730 1800 060731 0600 060731 1800 060801 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 13.3N 52.8W 13.9N 54.7W 14.3N 56.4W 14.8N 58.0W
BAMM 13.3N 52.8W 14.2N 55.0W 15.1N 56.9W 15.9N 58.7W
A98E 13.3N 52.8W 15.1N 55.6W 16.3N 58.2W 17.3N 60.6W
LBAR 13.3N 52.8W 14.5N 55.3W 15.7N 57.9W 16.7N 60.2W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 27KTS 28KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 27KTS 28KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060801 1800 060802 1800 060803 1800 060804 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 15.3N 59.7W 16.4N 63.0W 17.7N 65.2W 19.2N 67.3W
BAMM 16.8N 60.5W 18.5N 63.5W 20.1N 65.6W 21.3N 67.9W
A98E 17.9N 63.0W 19.7N 67.2W 21.0N 71.6W 21.5N 76.0W
LBAR 17.5N 62.5W 19.3N 66.4W 20.6N 69.5W 21.7N 72.2W
SHIP 30KTS 35KTS 40KTS 46KTS
DSHP 30KTS 35KTS 40KTS 46KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.3N LONCUR = 52.8W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 18KT
LATM12 = 11.3N LONM12 = 49.9W DIRM12 = 302DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
LATM24 = 9.5N LONM24 = 46.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 40NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 75NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



18:00z BAM Models.Now they go more east of Puerto Rico than this mornings run.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I think its gonna remain way below florida...I think its gonna track west thru the carribean, probably skirting jamaca, telling by the the steering currents map a page or 2 back

I think you may be right. Also, if this kind of scenrio does play out, it will have a much better chance to develop. For now though, I am still going to watch and see what it does in the next 24 hrs.

[vacanechaser]

well, there certainly looks to be a surface circulation in the visible.. some keep saying there is not one, but i think you mean closed low.... even nhc says 1012mb low... usually when they do that, it is a surface low... you can see the low level moisture being pulled into the circulation denoting a surface low... just open to the west and southwest,,,, again...

the convection is sustaining itself some, but in the visible i noticed alot of those storms collapse and now large outflow bounderies are eveident.. thats not good... it needs to stop that.. also, i noticed serval other little voticies spinning around in the main circulation... thats not helping matters either... one needs to become the dominant ciculation and take over.... it certainly looks beter today than yesterday....i would like to see popcorn thunderstorms out ahead of this thing, but thats not happening either... it would show upward motion, and have seen many a storm develop with this type of thunderstorm activity out ahead of it...

what is interesting in the models is the gfs does not show much of a system at all... however, it does keep a bump moving in the general direction of the U.S. out to 144 hours... sometimes the bump tightens and then relaxes a bit... so to say that the gfs dont see it is not the case...

the gfdl, has now shited further south and west in the latest run aiming it towards the fla keys but skimming the northern coast of cuba.. still closed and does ramp it up to hurricane status in the run... the gfdl is run off of the gfs... but yes, it is a model that is used for a closed circulation or TC..

tomorrow maybe the telling story... if it continues to survive through everythiong it has been through, it has a chance.. slim, but still there.. but until it can sustain the convection, all this typing is for not... lol...


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[wxman57]

Significant shear? The shear maps disagree.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

That shear map shows a large area of about 20kts of shear right in front of the wave. The green is 20kt shear, the yellow 30kts.

Definitley looks more poorly organized than yesterday. I can see no evidence of a circultion at the surface, perhaps some rotation aloft, but not nearly as well defined as the past few days. For a clue where it's going to go, look at the wave in front of it over the eastern Caribbean. Probably south of current model guidance, and wind shear will be an issue across the Caribbean south of the TUTT.

[wxman57]

...
the convection is sustaining itself some, but in the visible i noticed alot of those storms collapse and now large outflow bounderies are eveident.. thats not good... it needs to stop that..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Don't you mean that IS good, Jesse? We certainly don't want this do develop. I always get into trouble in my talks, confusing what's "good" for development but "bad" for our clients.

[cheezyWXguy]

heres a diagram i made of the storm...



looks like things are looking a little(tho not much) better for some slow development

[HUC]

All in all,there is a TWave east of the Antillies that should bring TStorms and some gusty winds in our area....What this one will gived in Florida or elswhere it is difficult to say at this time.So,for people in the firsts territories that could smell the wheather systems of the Atlantic i had to say"wee will see tomorow what type of weather this system will bring"....And since 1953 i saw a lot of systems !!!!!!
Wait and see.......

[Scorpion]

Significant shear? The shear maps disagree.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8sht.GIF

That shear map shows a large area of about 20kts of shear right in front of the wave. The green is 20kt shear, the yellow 30kts.

Definitley looks more poorly organized than yesterday. I can see no evidence of a circultion at the surface, perhaps some rotation aloft, but not nearly as well defined as the past few days. For a clue where it's going to go, look at the wave in front of it over the eastern Caribbean. Probably south of current model guidance, and wind shear will be an issue across the Caribbean south of the TUTT.

I don't know, the disturbance is tracking WNW into the Caribbean. Shear might be a player down the road, but not now it seems. It looks like the southern Caribbean has 10 kts at most.

[Grease Monkey]

heres a diagram i made of the storm...



looks like things are looking a little(tho not much) better for some slow development

Nice.

[vacanechaser]

...
the convection is sustaining itself some, but in the visible i noticed alot of those storms collapse and now large outflow bounderies are eveident.. thats not good... it needs to stop that..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Don't you mean that IS good, Jesse? We certainly don't want this do develop. I always get into trouble in my talks, confusing what's "good" for development but "bad" for our clients.

lol... well, most here want it to develop.... lol... so its bad for them.... lol


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Scorpion]

By the way, the MM5 is picking up on 99L.

[vacanechaser]

heres a diagram i made of the storm...



looks like things are looking a little(tho not much) better for some slow development

nice... however, the popcorn thunderstorms i mean is outside of the circulation not within the main envalope... close... and yes it is developing some convection.... just have to wait and see even longer... lol

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Windtalker1]

By the way, the MM5 is picking up on 99L.

Has it going through "Heberts box"

[kenl01]

ok folks. ken01 has given us some false information. Jeff Masters NEVER said this. I just checked and that comment came from someone reading his forum and not Jeff himself. For proof of this, click this link and check below his post where it says "reader's comments":

http://www.weatherunderground.com/blog/ ... amp=200607

BTW, for those who do not want to look back a page, here is Ken's post:

New comment just out about 99L, for whatever it's worth, from Jeff Masters Blog:


Wind shear has increased to 25knots around 99L. 99L has done well in the battle against dust, and water vapor imagery shows that dry air is having little effects on 99L....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... wg8wxc.GIF

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/wv-l.jpg


All that being said, chances of 99L to become a TD are decreasing, because of wind shear- 15%.

Any thoughts about that statement ?

Nope that was a quote from "someone" on his forum right under Jeff Master's discussion. You can find his comments underneath somewhere. The shear map is realistic, however. So the guy that pointed this out is correct.

[SouthFloridawx]

I think the overall structure is starting to look better this afternoon.

[wxman57]

By the way, the MM5 is picking up on 99L.

Has it going through "Herberts box"

Actually, it's called "Hebert's Box", named after Paul Hebert, former forecaster from the NHC. He's from a few miles south of where I grew up in Lafayette, LA.