98L invest,W.GOM,Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[Trugunzn]

[Trugunzn]

GFDl has it as a strong tropical storm

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Thing is getting sheared to pieces from the Pacific. IF it develops it will be farther south down toward the Bay Of Campache.

[dixiebreeze]

Some of the mets are saying it will move northward and some are saying into Mexico? Are the steering currents that weak or is it just harder to predict since it really isn't "anything" yet? (if it ever will be)

A little early, but the GOM look pretty fishy to me -- no pun intended

[Thunder44]

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 5:30 PM EDT on July 23, 2006


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
Disorganized shower activity continues in the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico. Upper-level winds are expected to become a little more
favorable for development during the next day or two as the area of
disturbed weather moves slowly to the north or northwest. An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate
the system tomorrow...if necessary.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through Monday.
$$
Forecaster Franklin

[Stormcenter]

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 5:30 PM EDT on July 23, 2006


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
Disorganized shower activity continues in the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico. Upper-level winds are expected to become a little more
favorable for development during the next day or two as the area of
disturbed weather moves slowly to the north or northwest. An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate
the system tomorrow...if necessary.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through Monday.
$$
Forecaster Franklin

So now it's North or Northwest instead of Northwest. That's interesting.

[southerngale]

Thanks Strat & Kat - hey, that rhymes!

KatDaddy...was that the trip you were telling me about recently or are you coming back this way soon?
And yeah, I know a lot of people who are still in FEMA trailers or living with relatives and here we are, watching the tropics again already. Surely lightning doesn't strike twice in the same spot though.

[rockyman]

TWO important statement: "moves slowly to the NORTH or northwest"...NHC doesn't seem to think this is going into Mexico.

[senorpepr]

Lets hope 98L can stay over water long enough for Chris to form.

I hope not. Especially if its in the BOC or GOM. I don't want any more landfalls.

Well, many places along the Gulf Coast could use a weak tropical system.

[senorpepr]

Anyone know of any programs that will e-mail you if a TCFA is issued?

No, but stay tuned to Storm2k... it will be posted shortly after the bulletin is transmitted.

[senorpepr]

Uhh.. how is Helene pronounced exactly? Like Hell with a long e as in bean?

According to the ABNT20 issued on June 1st, it's HE LEEN-

Code: Select all

000
ABNT20 KNHC 012114
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT THU JUN 01 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

TODAY MARKS THE FIRST DAY OF THE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...WHICH
WILL RUN UNTIL NOVEMBER 30TH.  THE LIST OF NAMES FOR 2006 IS AS
FOLLOWS:

NAME           PRONUNCIATION    NAME            PRONUNCIATION
-------------------------------------------------------------
ALBERTO        AL BAIR- TOE     LESLIE
BERYL          BER- IL          MICHAEL
CHRIS                           NADINE          NAY DEEN-
DEBBY                           OSCAR
ERNESTO        ER NES- TOE      PATTY
FLORENCE                        RAFAEL          RA FA EL-
GORDON                          SANDY
HELENE         HE LEEN-         TONY
ISAAC          EYE- ZAK         VALERIE
JOYCE                           WILLIAM
KIRK

THE GREEK ALPHABET...ALPHA...BETA...GAMMA...ETC...IS USED SHOULD THE
STANDARD LIST OF NAMES BE EXHAUSTED...AS IT WAS LAST YEAR. IN
2005...A RECORD 28 STORMS FORMED...INCLUDING AN UNNAMED OCTOBER
SUBTROPICAL STORM THAT WAS ADDED TO THE OFFICIAL LIST IN APRIL. THE
LONG-TERM AVERAGES FOR THE NUMBER OF NAMED STORMS...HURRICANES...
AND MAJOR HURRICANES ARE 11...6...AND 2...RESPECTIVELY.  THE NOAA
SEASONAL OUTLOOK FOR 2006 CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS OF ACTIVITY.

THIS PRODUCT...THE TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...IS ISSUED FOUR TIMES A
DAY...AT 530 AM...1130 AM...530 PM AND 1030 PM EASTERN TIME.  IT
BRIEFLY DESCRIBES SIGNIFICANT AREAS OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND THEIR
POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL STORM FORMATION.

A SEPARATE PRODUCT...THE SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT...
MAY BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO DESCRIBE STRONG...FORMATIVE
WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT HAVE NOT YET REACHED TROPICAL DEPRESSION
STATUS. THE SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT IS ISSUED UNDER
THE WMO HEADER WONT41 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIADSAAT.

A STANDARD PACKAGE OF PRODUCTS...CONSISTING OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
PUBLIC ADVISORY...THE FORECAST/ADVISORY...THE CYCLONE DISCUSSION...
AND A NEW PRODUCT...THE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES...IN PLACE OF THE
STRIKE PROBABILITIES...IS ISSUED EVERY SIX HOURS FOR ALL ONGOING
TROPICAL CYCLONES.  IN ADDITION...A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE MAY BE
ISSUED AT ANY TIME TO ADVISE OF SIGNIFICANT UNEXPECTED CHANGES OR
TO MODIFY WATCHES OR WARNINGS.

AN ADDITIONAL PRODUCT...OF WHICH USERS MAY BE LESS FAMILIAR...IS THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE IS A BRIEF
STATEMENT TO INFORM OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR
TO POST OR CANCEL WATCHES OR WARNINGS.  IT IS USED IN LIEU OF OR TO
PRECEDE THE ISSUANCE OF A SPECIAL ADVISORY PACKAGE.  TROPICAL
CYCLONE UPDATES...WHICH CAN BE ISSUED AT ANY TIME...CAN BE FOUND
UNDER WMO HEADERS WTNT61 KNHC THROUGH WTNT65 KNHC...AND UNDER AWIPS
HEADER MIATCUAT1 THROUGH MIATCUAT5.

FORECASTER AVILA

$$

[dixiebreeze]

TWO important statement: "moves slowly to the NORTH or northwest"...NHC doesn't seem to think this is going into Mexico.

Sort of what I expected from the 5:30 TWO. Might be an interesting week coming up.

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Lets hope 98L can stay over water long enough for Chris to form.

I hope not. Especially if its in the BOC or GOM. I don't want any more landfalls.

Well, many places along the Gulf Coast could use a weak tropical system.

If you read a few posts down from that one you will see I quoted myself and said that as long as it was a weak system, the southeast could use it.

[KatDaddy]

Hey SG. I will be headed that way sometime this week again. I drove out with a co-worker Friday so I could transition into the project. Looks like I will be making the drive more often as they commission the plant. If time permits I would like to meet you in person. I'll keep you updated.

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Lets hope 98L can stay over water long enough for Chris to form.

I hope not. Especially if its in the BOC or GOM. I don't want any more landfalls.

Although, I will add to what I wrote, a nice weak TS bringing rain to LA/MS wouldn't be to bad. As long as it is VERY weak.

See..

[rockyman]

This steering map is pretty scary for the US Gulf Coast:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

[dixiebreeze]

TAFB 24 hr. forecast for GOM:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif

[dixiebreeze]

This steering map is pretty scary for the US Gulf Coast:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm1.html

Looks like the entire GOM coastline needs to be watching this disturbance.

[Thunder44]

TWO important statement: "moves slowly to the NORTH or northwest"...NHC doesn't seem to think this is going into Mexico.

Sort of what I expected from the 5:30 TWO. Might be an interesting week coming up.

They really wouldn't know where exactly what direction it's going because there is really no LLC to track.

[Brent]

Tropical Weather Outlook

Statement as of 5:30 PM EDT on July 23, 2006


For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
Disorganized shower activity continues in the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico. Upper-level winds are expected to become a little more
favorable for development during the next day or two as the area of
disturbed weather moves slowly to the north or northwest. An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate
the system tomorrow...if necessary.
Elsewhere...tropical storm formation is not expected through Monday.
$$
Forecaster Franklin