Brief summaries of JB's thoughts

#181 Postby **fwbbreeze** » Sun Jul 16, 2006 6:06 pm

I agree thanks EWG!!!

Extremeweatherguy · #182 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 5:12 pm

I am sorry about posting an exact quote, but I felt I must post this one from JB's evening post:

I am even a little concerned about the vort max spinning south off the Louisiana coast. Remember how Alicia got started. Let's not go there yet, okay, but I am hoping tomorrow at this time, it's just a laughable feature rather than thunderstorms with established outflow over the northern gulf.

All I can say is that hopefully he is wrong. :wink:

Anyway, onto the summary of his full discussion:

-He finds the system south of LA to be interesting. See above quote.

-He thinks the system off the S. Atlantic coast has a chance to develop, and he says it could potentially be a threat to areas from the Carolina's northward if it does so.

-The system in the SW Caribbean should not be a big problem as it should stay far enough south.

-There is an alley in the southern part wave train developing up into the western Gulf. He doesn't think this will be a problem with the "deep" wave train, but he thinks that down the road a system currently east of 60W (one that likely currently has little convection) could try to come into it and turn NW into the western Gulf.

-He thinks the wave currently SE of the Cape Verdes could have a chance to crank up once it reaches about 60W (more so than the current wave in that location).

Extremeweatherguy · #183 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Jul 17, 2006 11:51 pm

that system south of LA has a circulation tonight that seems to have some convection wrapping around:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir2.html

I wonder how this will look tomorrow morning.

Thunder44 · #184 Postby **Thunder44** » Tue Jul 18, 2006 2:05 am

Extremeweatherguy wrote:that system south of LA has a circulation tonight that seems to have some convection wrapping around:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-ir2.html

I wonder how this will look tomorrow morning.

It looks like it's under strong shear. It won't develop.

Extremeweatherguy · #185 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 10:59 am

JB expects 1-2 more developments in the tropics before the end of July.

#186 Postby **stpeteweathergal** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 11:04 am

With all of the "disturbed" weather we have been having in Florida, and other posters noticing blobs off our coasts....I'm wondering if the West Coast of FL might be included in his thinking.

kjun · #187 Postby **kjun** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 2:35 pm

What is JB saying today about the tropics???

#188 Postby **mvtrucking** » Wed Jul 19, 2006 4:59 pm

He mentioned the disturbed weather that was east of Central America has moved into CA and with that, the SW Carribean will have to be watched. The next wave there could be deflected more north up into the GOM.(Looking at something that could be a factor over this weekend into the first of the week)

With TS Beryl,he believe's that it will go more west of north,rather than more NE. His outlook position for noon tomorrow will be, 50 miles sse of Atlantic City..

kjun · #189 Postby **kjun** » Thu Jul 20, 2006 11:23 am

Has JB commented on the tropic today??

robbielyn · #190 Postby **robbielyn** » Thu Jul 20, 2006 12:35 pm

I don't understand why people pay attention to his forecasts. He ends up eating more crow than anyone I know. Can't believe a thing he says. Robbielyn

#191 Postby **mvtrucking** » Thu Jul 20, 2006 4:21 pm

He mentioned the Gulf still needs to be watched this weekend into the 1st of the week. He thinks landfall of Beryl will probably be in the vicinity of Martha's Vineyard. Also El Nino is present in his opinion, and there is no way that there will be 17 named storms, but we will have to see?
That's about it.

#192 Postby **NDG** » Thu Jul 20, 2006 4:55 pm

mvtrucking wrote:He mentioned the disturbed weather that was east of Central America has moved into CA and with that, the SW Carribean will have to be watched. The next wave there could be deflected more north up into the GOM.(Looking at something that could be a factor over this weekend into the first of the week)

With TS Beryl,he believe's that it will go more west of north,rather than more NE. His outlook position for noon tomorrow will be, 50 miles sse of Atlantic City..

Beryl barely came within 100 miles from Atlantic City. Don't get me wrong, JB is a very knowlegeable man, but I think he is always the outlier within the possibilities, it always seems he goes along with what will draw his ratings up, and that's shame in my mind.

kjun · #193 Postby **kjun** » Fri Jul 21, 2006 6:20 pm

What is JB thinking about the tropics for the weekend???

Johnny · #194 Postby **Johnny** » Sun Jul 23, 2006 9:09 pm

What's the word EWG?

hurricanedude · #195 Postby **hurricanedude** » Sun Jul 23, 2006 9:25 pm

50 mile margin of error is not to shabby

Extremeweatherguy · #196 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sun Jul 23, 2006 9:47 pm

Johnny wrote:What's the word EWG?

He thinks the system in the Gulf could possibly develop into a Fay or Frances like system, but he says he is more concerned about what may be coming later in the season for TX. Later in the season he has a fear that TX will see a Cat. 2 or stronger hurricane.

Overall, this current system should be a weak event and will not have time to become a strong storm.

#197 Postby **Pearl River** » Sun Jul 23, 2006 10:52 pm

EWG wrote

Johnny wrote:
What's the word EWG?
He thinks the system in the Gulf could possibly develop into a Fay or Frances like system, but he says he is more concerned about what may be coming later in the season for TX. Later in the season he has a fear that TX will see a Cat. 2 or stronger hurricane.

Overall, this current system should be a weak event and will not have time to become a strong storm.

JB said, if the system develops, it could be more of a Fay or Frances type, open on the west and having the winds to the east, instead of a Bret type.

Extremeweatherguy · #198 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Sun Jul 23, 2006 11:04 pm

Pearl River wrote:EWG wrote

Johnny wrote:
What's the word EWG?
He thinks the system in the Gulf could possibly develop into a Fay or Frances like system, but he says he is more concerned about what may be coming later in the season for TX. Later in the season he has a fear that TX will see a Cat. 2 or stronger hurricane.

Overall, this current system should be a weak event and will not have time to become a strong storm.

JB said, if the system develops, it could be more of a Fay or Frances type, open on the west and having the winds to the east, instead of a Bret type.

exactly. IF it develops. He never said it was going to. This is why I said "He thinks the system in the Gulf could possibly develop into a Fay or Frances like system".

kjun · #199 Postby **kjun** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 10:12 am

Does JB think we will have development in the GOM????

Extremeweatherguy · #200 Postby **Extremeweatherguy** » Mon Jul 24, 2006 10:34 am

kjun wrote:Does JB think we will have development in the GOM????

he thinks the current system may become a TS, but if it does it will likely stay weak and open to one side...similar to Frances and Fay. Probably only a minor wind issue for the coast and a big rain maker inland.

Brief summaries of JB's thoughts

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