Met Dr. Steve Lyons: his thoughts on Katrina, etc.

[skysummit]

So that yellow line is supposed to represent the area of Cat 3 winds? It's interesting how they immediately stop at the coastlline and do not go any further. It's especially interesting how they actually "curve" around St. Bernard Parish. Mother nature is a little more thoughful than I previously thought. Thank you for not piercing beyond the coastline with Cat 3 winds.

[MiamiensisWx]

So that yellow line is supposed to represent the area of Cat 3 winds? It's interesting how they immediately stop at the coastlline and do not go any further. It's especially interesting how they actually "curve" around St. Bernard Parish. Mother nature is a little more thoughful than I previously thought. Thank you for not piercing beyond the coastline with Cat 3 winds.

Also, southeast Louisiana is mostly flat. Some small areas (pockets) probably had some brief sustained Category Three winds.

[Ivanhater]

i am just stating that some on here need to keep an open mind and look at the POSSIBILITY

Indeed, Ivanhater, and you have been very respectful. What you've stated is exactly what I and a few others have simply tried to do as well--voice a differing perspective/viewpoint. From the getgo I have never questioned the integrity or sincerity of anyone involved in the findings--only that I "respectfully" disagreed with their findings. Ever since then it's been a parade of ofttimes condescending "how dare you..." follow-ups that have betimes precipitated heated exchanges, that really needn't have been such. The funny thing is that even when on opposite sides of the relatively MINOR issue of what wind speeds were, the protagonists and antagonists in this discussion actually seem to agree on much more than that which they disagree--it's just that the disagreement is what makes the discussion lively and interesting--at least as long as one can do so without insult, innuendo, and pejoratives. I, too, have done my best to maintain respect in dialoging with those with whom I disagree (and it's difficult sometimes ) but you gotta admit, it's been both informative and interesting sharing these perspectives. It is the truly CLOSED mind that would stifle any/all opposing viewpoints, while an objective one welcomes them and discusses them without any of the aforementioned tangentials.

You have a good 1

A2K

couldnt agree more, i just dont know how some can say without a doubt that, in this case, both Ivan and Katrina did not have x or y winds, since most measuring equipment broke and or were not near the worst part of the storm, im not saying that Ivan or Katrina was a 4 at landfall, im just saying some on here need to admit the data received is not a full picture, nothing more nothing less, and i agree with you feelings as well and you have been very respectful. hope you are coming along over there after katrina and i hope you and I can catch a break this season

[Extremeweatherguy]

Yes, Camille was likely a strong 4 or weak 5 at landfall...190mph seems just a bit un-realistic. Also, back in the day...they may have mistaken some of the surge damage for wind damage. I would say that most storms before the dropsonde era are likely overestimated in terms of windspeed (unless there is sound evidence that the *winds* caused damage to that magnitude on land).

[MiamiensisWx]

Yes, Camille was likely a strong 4 or weak 5 at landfall...190mph seems just a bit un-realistic. Also, back in the day...they may have mistaken some of the surge damage for wind damage. I would say that most storms before the dropsonde era are likely overestimated in terms of windspeed (unless there is sound evidence that the *winds* caused damage to that magnitude on land).

I say 160MPH to 165MPH is a more realistic landfall intensity of Camille, with a peak of 175MPH to 180MPH in the central Gulf of Mexico.

[skysummit]

So that yellow line is supposed to represent the area of Cat 3 winds? It's interesting how they immediately stop at the coastlline and do not go any further. It's especially interesting how they actually "curve" around St. Bernard Parish. Mother nature is a little more thoughful than I previously thought. Thank you for not piercing beyond the coastline with Cat 3 winds.

Also, southeast Louisiana is mostly flat. Some small areas (pockets) probably had some brief sustained Category Three winds.

Yea, that's what I'm implying. I don't think that map takes into affect the "at sea level or below" areas of St. Bernard Parish. Also, since that's mostly marshland, there are very few trees to slow down the wind. I'll have to agree with you and say a few inland areas probably did withstand Cat 3 winds. I know when we got that 121mph gust at the office, it lasted for about 5 seconds, and just about every tree around me came falling.

[Extremeweatherguy]

So that yellow line is supposed to represent the area of Cat 3 winds? It's interesting how they immediately stop at the coastlline and do not go any further. It's especially interesting how they actually "curve" around St. Bernard Parish. Mother nature is a little more thoughful than I previously thought. Thank you for not piercing beyond the coastline with Cat 3 winds.

Also, southeast Louisiana is mostly flat. Some small areas (pockets) probably had some brief sustained Category Three winds.

I agree with that. I think that some areas did see cat. 3 force winds..but I do not think that N.O. saw them or most other large cities/communities along the Gulf.

[MiamiensisWx]

Yea, that's what I'm implying. I don't think that map takes into affect the "at sea level or below" areas of St. Bernard Parish. Also, since that's mostly marshland, there are very few trees to slow down the wind. I'll have to agree with you and say a few inland areas probably did withstand Cat 3 winds. I know when we got that 121mph gust at the office, it lasted for about 5 seconds, and just about every pine tree around me came fallling.

Scattered small pockets in southeast Louisiana probably did receive the sustained Category Three winds, but only for brief instants.

I also think eastern New Orleans received Category Two sustained winds, but only for brief times, with gusts to Category Three. That probably caused most of the damage. Who agrees?

[Pearl River]

f5 wrote

pre dropsonde era winds were likely overrated making the flight level winds the surface winds

They used dropsondes back then. They are not new. Also, the recon went into Camille early in the afternoon. It had mechanical failure and there was no later flight. The weather observer on board based the surface winds on visual examination, based on the 150mph visual. He stated that they had never seen the water surface like that before.

has their ever been a storm with 190 mph sustained winds above 900 mb (Camille)?

As we know now from Katrina, the winds and pressure due not seem to correlate very well.

[MiamiensisWx]

Are you saying Camille really was 190MPH, Pearl River?

[skysummit]

Yea, that's what I'm implying. I don't think that map takes into affect the "at sea level or below" areas of St. Bernard Parish. Also, since that's mostly marshland, there are very few trees to slow down the wind. I'll have to agree with you and say a few inland areas probably did withstand Cat 3 winds. I know when we got that 121mph gust at the office, it lasted for about 5 seconds, and just about every pine tree around me came fallling.

Scattered small pockets in southeast Louisiana probably did receive the sustained Category Three winds, but only for brief instants.

I also think eastern New Orleans received Category Two sustained winds, but only for brief times, with gusts to Category Three. That probably caused most of the damage. Who agrees?

I do. Riding around the areas, you can tell which areas those "pockets" are. It's almost like microbursts took place in some locations.

[MiamiensisWx]

I do. Riding around the areas, you can tell which areas those "pockets" are. It's almost like microbursts took place in some locations.

I say it was basically a repeat of Wilma in eastern New Orleans: mostly Category One winds, occasional and brief Category Two winds, and Category Three gusts in microbursts that did most of the damage. Based on what I've seen, heard, and read, this compromise view sounds most reasonable and prevents much further argument.

[skysummit]

I do. Riding around the areas, you can tell which areas those "pockets" are. It's almost like microbursts took place in some locations.

I say it was basically a repeat of Wilma in eastern New Orleans: mostly Category One winds, occasional and brief Category Two winds, and Category Three gusts in microbursts that did most of the damage. Based on what I've seen, heard, and read, this compromise view sounds most reasonable and prevents much further argument.

Yea...so let's finally end this argument!!!! j/j

[Audrey2Katrina]

You really need to drop the straw man references. Personally, I find it offensive and rude. I was just making a comment yet you still feel inclined to respond in this manner. It is your right but offensive remarks are not.

thank you...

Definition of a Straw-man argument (Merriam-Webster) : "a weak or imaginary opposition."

Nothing in there intended to "offend" it's simply what one calls a statement wherein one contends that someone is saying other than that which one is ACTUALLY saying. Personally, I find THAT offensive. I respect your viewpoints and have never tried to put words into your mouth (which is EXACTLY what straw-man tactics are). I have never "immortalized" or put this storm on a "pedestal" and find your efforts at characterizing my and other comments as tantamount to doing that equally offensive. Reciprocity here would equally be appreciated.

Thank You

A2K

[Pearl River]

CVW wrote

I also think eastern New Orleans received Category Two sustained winds, but only for brief times, with gusts to Category Three. That probably caused most of the damage. Who agrees?

I can agree mostly. Even though it's "unofficial", Michoud had a peak one minute wind of 107 knots. CAT 3.

Are you saying Camille really was 190MPH, Pearl River?

Yes I am. No one has proven it wasn't. Just like everyone going with the "official" report on Katrina, I'll stick with the " official"one for Camille.

[MiamiensisWx]

Audrey2Katrina, here are my thoughts on what eastern New Orleans experienced...

Scattered small pockets in southeast Louisiana probably did receive the sustained Category Three winds, but only for brief instants.

I also think eastern New Orleans received Category Two sustained winds, but only for brief times, with gusts to Category Three. That probably caused most of the damage. Who agrees?

I say it was basically a repeat of Wilma in eastern New Orleans: mostly Category One winds, occasional and brief Category Two winds, and Category Three gusts in microbursts that did most of the damage. Based on what I've seen, heard, and read, this compromise view sounds most reasonable and prevents much further argument.

Do you agree?

[MiamiensisWx]

Yes I am. No one has proven it wasn't. Just like everyone going with the "official" report on Katrina, I'll stick with the " official"one for Camille.

I disagree, but you are entitled to your opinion.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Yea, that's what I'm implying. I don't think that map takes into affect the "at sea level or below" areas of St. Bernard Parish. Also, since that's mostly marshland, there are very few trees to slow down the wind. I'll have to agree with you and say a few inland areas probably did withstand Cat 3 winds. I know when we got that 121mph gust at the office, it lasted for about 5 seconds, and just about every pine tree around me came fallling.

Scattered small pockets in southeast Louisiana probably did receive the sustained Category Three winds, but only for brief instants.

I also think eastern New Orleans received Category Two sustained winds, but only for brief times, with gusts to Category Three. That probably caused most of the damage. Who agrees?

I do. Riding around the areas, you can tell which areas those "pockets" are. It's almost like microbursts took place in some locations.

I agree too. Like I have said I think that downtown N.O. and westward saw Cat. 1 winds or weaker, and east of downtown there were Cat. 2 winds and right at the coast there were Cat. 3 winds. As for the pockets of higher winds, I know exactly what that is like too. After Charley in Orlando I would pass from one area that saw some tree and minor roof damage and then all the sudden hit an area where all the power poles are snapped, every roof has major damage, and where there was not a standing road sign in sight. It is quite remarkable how there can be such a drastic change in less than a quarter mile. There was also a local school in my area that had it's cafeteria roof completely peeled off, yet another school less than a mile away recieved only minor damages.

[Audrey2Katrina]

You really need to drop the straw man references. Personally, I find it offensive and rude. I was just making a comment yet you still feel inclined to respond in this manner. It is your right but offensive remarks are not.

thank you...

Yeah, I agree... sorry if I sound mean, Audrey2Katrina, but I don't really like those remarks you make, either.

Ummm.. those remarks are certainly no more disparaging than the rolling eyes we are incessantly given from some, and if one truly understands what a "straw man" argument is, it is quite inocuous. All it means is that you are trying to put words into another's statements. Do you like that sort of tactic? You know it's kind of sad, but up to this point this was a very civil thread with cerebral and thought provoking comment. Then came the "straw-man" comments. And that is NOT meant to offend, because that is exactly what mischaracterizing what one is trying to say amonts to being. I ask you... do you like that tactic?

A2K

[MiamiensisWx]

I agree too. Like I have said I think that downtown N.O. and westward saw Cat. 1 winds or weaker, and east of downtown there were Cat. 2 winds and right at the coast there were Cat. 3 winds. As for the pockets of higher winds, I know exactly what that is like too. After Charley in Orlando I would pass from one area that saw some tree and minor roof damage and then all the sudden hit an area where all the power poles are snapped, every roof has major damage, and where there was not a standing road sign in sight. It is quite remarkable how there can be such a drastic change in less than a quarter mile. There was also a local school in my area that had it's cafeteria completely peeled off, yet another school less than a mile away recieved only minor damages.

I agree; I think eastern New Orleans experienced something very similar to what southeast Florida experienced during Wilma, with microbursts and gusts doing plenty of damage, along with Category One and brief Category Two winds.