East Atl/African Waves,Sat Pics,Models Discussion Thread

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Here is 1969...

1 Tropical Storm ANNA 25 JUL- 5 AUG 60 1002 -
2 Hurricane BLANCHE 11-13 AUG 75 997 1
3 Hurricane CAMILLE 14-22 AUG 165 905 5
4 Hurricane DEBBIE 14-25 AUG 105 951 3
5 Tropical Storm EVE 25-27 AUG 50 996 -
6 Hurricane FRANCELIA 29 AUG- 4 SEP 100 973 3
7 Hurricane GERDA 6-10 SEP 110 979 3
8 Hurricane HOLLY 14-21 SEP 75 984 1
9 Hurricane INGA 20 SEP-15 OCT 100 964 3
10 Hurricane #10 21-26 SEP 65 985 1
11 Tropical Storm #11 24-30 SEP 60 990 -
12 Subtropical Storm 1 29 SEP- 1 OCT 50 996 -
13 Tropical Storm JENNY 1- 6 OCT 40 1000 -
14 Hurricane KARA 7-19 OCT 90 978 2
15 Hurricane LAURIE 17-27 OCT 90 973 2
16 Tropical Storm #16 28-31 OCT 60 990 -
17 Hurricane #17 30 OCT- 7 NOV 65 988 1
18 Hurricane MARTHA

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

1887 season...

1 Tropical Storm #1 15-20 MAY 60 - -
2 Tropical Storm #2 17-21 MAY 50 - -
3 Tropical Storm #3 11-14 JUN 35 - -
4 Hurricane #4 20-28 JUL 85 - 2
5 Tropical Storm #5 30 JUL- 8 AUG 50 - -
6 Hurricane #6 14-23 AUG 105 972 3
7 Hurricane #7 18-27 AUG 110 - 3
8 Hurricane #8 1- 6 SEP 90 963 2
9 Hurricane #9 11-22 SEP 85 973 2
10 Hurricane #10 14-18 SEP 70 983 1
11 Tropical Storm #11 6- 9 OCT 50 - -
12 Tropical Storm #12 8- 9 OCT 60 - -
13 Hurricane #13 9-22 OCT 75 - 1
14 Hurricane #14 10-12 OCT 75 - 1
15 Hurricane #15 15-19 OCT 90 - 2
16 Tropical Storm #16 29 OCT- 6 NOV 70 990 -
17 Hurricane #17 27 NOV- 4 DEC 70 - 1
18 Hurricane #18 4-10 DEC 70 - 1
19 Tropical Storm #19 7-12 DEC 50 - -

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16W S OF 23N MOVING W 5-10 KT.
A 1009 MB LOW IS ON THE WAVE AXIS AT 18N16W. BAMAKO UPPER LEVEL
SOUNDING SHOWS DEFINITE WAVE PASSAGE...WHILE DAKAR UPPER LEVEL
SOUNDING SHOWS AN IMMINENTLY APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE. LARGE
CLOUD AREA WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION IS ALSO ALONG THE W AFRICAN
COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-15N
BETWEEN 15W-21W.

The above from the 8:05 AM Discussion.

[WindRunner]

Wow, already deepening (1010 to 1009 in 6hrs)

This is definately one to watch, though.

[cycloneye]

VERY GOOD LOOKING TROPICAL WAVE HAS EXITED AFRICA IN THE PAST 12
HOURS AND GLOBAL MODELS SEEM TO LIKE THIS WAVE TO VARYING DEGREES.
THIS MAY BE ONE OF THE BEST WAVES OF THE SEASON THUS FAR...AND BEARS
WATCHING FOR THE LOCAL AREA. MODELS BRING A TROPICAL LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE TO THE VICINITY OF THE NE CARIB FOR NEXT SUN-MON WITH
ANOTHER WELL ORGANIZED WAVE OR LOW FOLLOWING NOT FAR BEHIND. THIS
COMING WEEK MAY THEREFORE YIELD ANOTHER SPURT OF TROPICAL ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE ATLANTIC BASIN. LET`S ALL BE READY!


The above from discussion at NWS San Juan about wave and more.

[webke]

Dr Lyons just said that this wave has a well defined circulation and could possibly be Jose in the next 36 hours.

[wxman57]

Here are a few images of the new wave

IR:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/meteo1.gif

Visible:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/meteo2.gif

Looks very healthy.

[BigA]

If the above satellite images are new, it looks like this is the most potent wave to take the plunge into the Atlantic this year. Of course, an awful lot of them fall apart, but I have hunch that this one wont.

[jabber]

Here are a few images of the new wave

IR:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/meteo1.gif

Visible:
http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/meteo2.gif

Looks very healthy.

Healthy indeed.... thanks for the pics

[cycloneye]

Another view of this impressive wave.

[wxman57]

If the above satellite images are new, it looks like this is the most potent wave to take the plunge into the Atlantic this year. Of course, an awful lot of them fall apart, but I have hunch that this one wont.

The pictures are from 12Z today (an hour ago).

[cycloneye]

SAT imagery

And yet another great view of this wave.

[wxwatcher91]

SAT imagery

And yet another great view of this wave.

for the 150 posts promoting this sat view I'd think you were trying to sell it

seriously though, it is a great view and I thank you for sharing it with us

[Tropicswatcher]

If the above satellite images are new, it looks like this is the most potent wave to take the plunge into the Atlantic this year. Of course, an awful lot of them fall apart, but I have hunch that this one wont.

The pictures are from 12Z today (an hour ago).

Where do you think is the center of circulation, WXMAN57 ?

Do you think is as high in latitude as the NHC discussion is saying?

[Buck]

Wow, this thing is a monster!

[bvigal]

SAT imagery

And yet another great view of this wave.

for the 150 posts promoting this sat view I'd think you were trying to sell it

seriously though, it is a great view and I thank you for sharing it with us

I agree, it is a fantastic view, and Luis, thanks so much for finding and posting this!! For years and years, have wanted something off that European satellite more frequently than every 3 hours, but EUMETSAT's "rules" are restrictive and unbending. I've written them directly for clarification: no free availability, other than 3-hrly, to public allowed posted by any subscribers, even NOAA!! It looks like NRL has taken advantage of the one loophole, that being special events - the SAL (though why waves possibly becoming hurricanes can't be considered special events, I don't know!)

Thus, we don't know if this wonderful satellite view will be available all the time, or will discontinue when the dust ceases. For the time being, I am LOVING IT!!

[wxwatcher91]

the wave just exitting the African coast isnt looking as good as it did... but thats pretty much the case with any wave that exits the coast... lets see if it can hold itself together... the one behind it looks worse too though and its over land... most likely convection will increase with day-time heating for the one that is over land still.

things to watch for these waves:

satellite image:
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/disp ... C_SCALE=15

forecast models:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

here's some of the latest info from the East Atlantic

[Tropicswatcher]

Nice upper high on top and to the north of the system. Damn dry air not that far behind.

[webke]

Question,
When I look at the picturs of the system, is it possible that two systems could form at around 30 to 40 degrees and the other at 20 degrees.

[drezee]

This system is looking QUITE healthy this morning! The visible is showing banding and a LLC looks to be forming.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/sat-bin/display10.cgi?SIZE=full&PHOT=yes&AREA=mediterranean/sahara&PROD=vis&TYPE=ssmi&NAV=tropics&DISPLAY=Latest&ARCHIVE=Latest&CGI=tropics.cgi&CURRENT=20050820.1300.msg1.vis.x.sahara_dust.x.jpg&MOSAIC_SCALE=15