2024 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[skyline385]

The new Euro EC-AIFS has a storm in NW GOM, but is at 360 hours.

https://i.imgur.com/QWH5n2t.png

That looks just like the one strong EPS member from 12z, AIFS has been performing great for mid latitude features afaik

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/B64wb1yJ/image.png [/url]

The atlantic basin isnt ready, we see this every year, lots of early season noise, minimal development. Listen to wxman57. Take this time to prepare, everyone has been warned.

The basin is never ready until it suddenly is and models all light up, we see this every year.

We had 2 MDR storms in June last year in a similar SST config in an El Nino year. The SSTs are higher this year and we are in a transitioning Nina. Always be prepared as the switch can flip anytime, especially with the MJO pulse passing mid-June.

[ronjon]

Most of the global models are now showing a slug of moisture moving north out of the western Caribbean into the GOM in about a week. All are pretty much showing weak broad disorganized low pressure. This time of year shear typically puts a lid on development beyond weak tropical storms.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

A weak low with disorganized squalls and lots of rain seems likely, some breezy conditions too similar to a cold front squall. I’m not sure it gets the name Alberto but there’s a chance.

[Stratton23]

Also i wouldnt lock in on this moisture or system going to florida just yet, the GFS and Euro have an upper level pattern setup that would favor a track more towards the central or western gulf

[Cpv17]

I think regardless of what happens, FL should see some decent rain out of this. They could use it so I hope everyone there that needs it can get some.

[kevin]

A lot of long-range GOM activity in the 00z GEFS.

[Stratton23]

Strong signal in the 00z EPS as well in the medium - long range, the switch is coming

[skyline385]

A lot of long-range GOM activity in the 00z GEFS.

https://i.imgur.com/N5TsRRO.png

On the EPS as well, mostly after the 10-day mark. Can see the precursor to it at the end of the ECMWF run entering the GoM. This is the same system which AIFS picked up.

[HurricaneBrain]

FWIW weak hurricane approaching Galveston on latest GFS run, 10 days out.

[wxman57]

FWIW weak hurricane approaching Galveston on latest GFS run, 10 days out.

It's not worth much. Extreme run-to-run variability and no other model indicates development - yet.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

My guess is we'll see some sort of weak system - all the signs are there (favorable MJO, warm SSTs, a lot of moisture on the models) for a classic June system.

[wxman57]

Here's a comparison of the 12Z GFS, Canadian, and Euro valid in 10 days, which is 12Z June 16. Which one is not like the others? This is happening in EVERY basin since the last GFS change (I'm not calling it an "upgrade").

http://wxman57.com/images/12ZModels.JPG

[Cpv17]

Here's a comparison of the 12Z GFS, Canadian, and Euro valid in 10 days, which is 12Z June 16. Which one is not like the others? This is happening in EVERY basin since the last GFS change (I'm not calling it an "upgrade").

http://wxman57.com/images/12ZModels.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/12ZModels.JPG

I can’t even remember when the last time the GFS has been good. Seems like every upgrade it gets worse.

[Stratton23]

Sadly if the GFS is doing poorly with tropical systems, then we got problems for this season, the euro is about as good as hellen keller at seeing development, the CMC might be alright, but im not sure how well it handles tropical systems

[Cpv17]

Sadly if the GFS is doing poorly with tropical systems, then we got problems for this season, the euro is about as good as hellen keller at seeing development, the CMC might be alright, but im not sure how well it handles tropical systems

The GFS is ok with seeing genesis from waves that exit Africa later in the season, but it wants to develop damn near any thunderstorm that comes off Central/SA. It’s been way too aggressive with CAG’s for far too long.

[LarryWx]

Sadly if the GFS is doing poorly with tropical systems, then we got problems for this season, the euro is about as good as hellen keller at seeing development, the CMC might be alright, but im not sure how well it handles tropical systems

What about UKMET (out to 7 days)? I don't mean for its often understated winds. I mean for TCG.

Also, opinions about ICON these days?

[Stratton23]

Cpv17 yeah i think the GFS is overdoing it, but I also think their is some importance to that run, The CAG is going to be very active, that is with out a doubt a guarantee , once that MJO passage moves in, as seen in both the long range eps and GEFS, things could get active in the gulf/ western caribbean , as for the UKMET model, i have heard it has doing a pretty good job in hurricane season, guess we are about to find out which model does the best job this season lol

[Stratton23]

For what its worth the 12z EPS did increase in support for some sort of weak system, but interestingly the EPS is more west with its members, but man check out that signal in the 10-13 day range on the EPS! Thats a pretty darn active one if i say so myself

[CM2]

For what its worth the 12z EPS did increase in support for some sort of weak system, but interestingly the EPS is more west with its members, but man check out that signal in the 10-13 day range on the EPS! Thats a pretty darn active one if i say so myself

I would say, not unheard of to get some tropical activity in June. I just wouldn't expect anything close to an Emily situation. Probably a subtropical storm or at worse a very ugly cat 1.

[Pas_Bon]

It is JUNE 6th and some people are already incenuating the season is a bust?
Make it make sense to me....please.