Tropical Wave in Eastern Caribbean

[boca]

I'm glad the GFS is showing a Miami hit,meaning it will not happen.

[Kingarabian]

Nothing on the 00z Euro.

[Alyono]

this storm is nothing more than a figment of the MU's imagination

[Kingarabian]

this storm is nothing more than a figment of the MU's imagination

Because the operational Euro showed the storm simply for 1 run, can we say that was feedback related?

[Alyono]

this storm is nothing more than a figment of the MU's imagination

Because the operational Euro showed the storm simply for 1 run, can we say that was feedback related?

not sure. Didn't have that rapid development like it showed with Four when it took it quickly to near hurricane intensity, only to dissipate it 24 hours later.

Perhaps it simply did not have the SAL properly analyzed, which is what I had suspected yesterday

[Kingarabian]

this storm is nothing more than a figment of the MU's imagination

Because the operational Euro showed the storm simply for 1 run, can we say that was feedback related?

not sure. Didn't have that rapid development like it showed with Four when it took it quickly to near hurricane intensity, only to dissipate it 24 hours later.

Perhaps it simply did not have the SAL properly analyzed, which is what I had suspected yesterday

And the previous 12z and 00z Euro Parallel runs showed it back to back.

[Alyono]

Because the operational Euro showed the storm simply for 1 run, can we say that was feedback related?

not sure. Didn't have that rapid development like it showed with Four when it took it quickly to near hurricane intensity, only to dissipate it 24 hours later.

Perhaps it simply did not have the SAL properly analyzed, which is what I had suspected yesterday

And the previous 12z and 00z Euro Parallel runs showed it back to back.

that's why I suspect bad thermodynamics, not feedback

[Ivanhater]

06Z Gfs major hurricane just south of Haiti at 222 hours

[cycloneye]

This chaser is not happy with the models.

@iCyclone
But the GFS is windshield-wiping and the Euro can't decide if the system is even real. I want to see some gelling soon-- or else.

@iCyclone
Furious with the global models this evening. Playing games, etc. They're punished until further notice.

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/883615414244196352

[Ivanhater]

Moving between Jamaica and Cuba at 240 hours

[Ivanhater]

Curving north into Bahamas at 288

[Ivanhater]

Hmmm..Eastern trough getting cut off and high building back in at 300

[cycloneye]

The San Juan NWS mentions this:

Beyond Friday we are continuing to monitor model outputs that
suggest a tropical system will move into the Caribbean Friday
night and affect most of the area over the weekend with winds and
rain. Model outputs are still wavering on the track of this
system, but conditions appear favorable for development.

[Ivanhater]

Yep..major hurricane strike North Carolina at 300

[Kingarabian]

GFS Parallel now showing a very weak low compared to virtually nothing in its past runs.

00z EPS has nothing.

[cycloneye]

Wave axis has not reached the coast but will do so later today.

[Hurricane Andrew]

There continues to be a massive gap in SAL for this wave.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... E5new.html

[GCANE]

Latest stations and sat view

[TheStormExpert]

There continues to be a massive gap in SAL for this wave.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... E5new.html

Too bad we can't see if there is any SAL on the heels of it over Africa.

[weathaguyry]

Not too bad!