Tropical Wave about to emerge West Africa (Is Invest 92L)

[PTrackerLA]

Fun times ahead watching this system, I think someone said earlier the last true long tracker was Earl in 2010? One thing I just realized though...that's 99L still stalled off the SE Coast on DAY 10! Make it go away!!!

[cycloneye]

After seeing a 926 mb monster almost over my head I will go to bed.

[WeatherEmperor]

252hrs in southern Bahamas. Exact spot literraly as 12z.




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[RL3AO]

The global models struggle with many things. In dynamics of tropical cyclones and the small changes in environment that can cause big changes in track and intensity. I'm only referring to large-scale patterns which the models are really really good at now. Here's an example. On the left is the GFS from 7 days ago and on the right is the GFS initialization for the same time. A 7-day forecast. Look at how well the "large-scale" things match up. Even Gaston isn't too bad. The biggest miss was the intensity of the trough near the UK. When the models are all showing a huge ridge building in the next 7 days, there's almost certainly going to be a big ridge in the next 7 days. When the models all show a big ridge in the eastern United States in 10 days, there's a pretty good chance something similar happens.

I'm not saying panic with this wave. I'm just saying this is set up to get a lot further west than most waves leaving Africa at 15N.

[SFLcane]

[PTrackerLA]

And looks like SFla saved by 99L at 288 hours as it turns north. Unfortunately we all know you can't count on that to be there weakening the ridge.

[chaser1]

OMG?? At 252 hr.'s, its not even showing a pressure - but looks practically like a tornado?? At least on this run, this thing is really wound up

[SFLcane]

99L to the rescue begins to recurve near bahamas

[chaser1]

99L to the rescue begins to recurve near bahamas

Yeah, but that could spell some serious trouble for the Carolina's!

[RL3AO]

That would be something if 99L ends up saving Florida from a major hurricane (twice)

[SFLcane]

Yep into NC. What if 99L isn't there?

[LarryWx]

I'd say that 99L could very well have saved FL from a potential big hit on the 0Z GFS. 99L could conceivably have a major impact even if it never gets strong by creating a weakness and saving some areas from a direct hit from Pouch 25L.

[LarryWx]

Direct hit NC OB 9/10-11 thanks to 99L saving areas further SW from a hit! 99L hits NC OB just before on 9/8-9!

[SFLcane]

[Hurricaneman]

Direct hit NC OB 9/10-11 thanks to 99L saving areas further SW from a hit! 99L hits NC OB just before on 9/8-9!

Im keeping an eye on it due to maybe 99L not being there and we all know forecasts models outside of 5 days are a little iffy

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[SFLcane]

Direct hit NC OB 9/10-11 thanks to 99L saving areas further SW from a hit! 99L hits NC OB just before on 9/8-9!

larry at this point in 10 days 99L might not even be around.

[LarryWx]

Direct hit NC OB 9/10-11 thanks to 99L saving areas further SW from a hit! 99L hits NC OB just before on 9/8-9!

Im keeping an eye on it due to maybe 99L not being there and we all know forecasts models outside of 5 days are a little iffy

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

Oh yeah. 99L hasn't been forecasted well out a few days, much less two weeks! But it is fascinating that 99L may end up playing a big role in pouch 25L's track.

[LarryWx]

Direct hit NC OB 9/10-11 thanks to 99L saving areas further SW from a hit! 99L hits NC OB just before on 9/8-9!

larry at this point in 10 days 99L might not even be around.

Truth!

[RL3AO]

I would take two things away from the models right now about this wave.

1) Development in the eastern Atlantic seems likely.
2) The large scale pattern supports a system that may be a tropical storm when hitting Cape Verde to get much further west than you would normally expect.

[SFLcane]

I mean 99L hanging around in 10 days. Unless it parks itself in the GOM for 5 days. I think not

Edit: Actually to add its much further westward then 18z obviously at 300+ hrs its all in good fun for now.