Wave/Surface Trough in Central Caribbean

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RL3AO
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Re: Wave/Surface Trough in Eastern Caribbean-Yellow-10%

#181 Postby RL3AO » Thu Aug 08, 2013 4:13 pm

fci wrote:Not sure that they have the greatest handle on the 24 hour vs. 5 day percentages. If I'm not mistaken they have been the same for all systems in all forecasts since they started.
If conditions might be better when this system gets to the Western Carib. wouldn't the % chance rise just a little looking 5 days out?
Just thinkin........


Thats because all the systems in the Atlantic have had either no chance of forming, or would only form in the next two days resulting in the same percentage. If you look right now in the EPac you see two systems, one with a 10 and 30 percent chance and the other with a 40 and 70 percent chance.
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Re: Wave/Surface Trough in Eastern Caribbean-Yellow-10%

#182 Postby 'CaneFreak » Thu Aug 08, 2013 4:14 pm

No they have not been the same for all systems. They have only been the same for Atlantic systems because the Atlantic has not been favorable for development neither in the short term nor long term since August 1st when they first started these 5 day outlooks. And yes, if they thought conditions would be better in the WC in 5 days, they would have assigned a higher percentage in 5 days than in 48 hours.

fci wrote:Not sure that they have the greatest handle on the 24 hour vs. 5 day percentages. If I'm not mistaken they have been the same for all systems in all forecasts since they started.
If conditions might be better when this system gets to the Western Carib. wouldn't the % chance rise just a little looking 5 days out?
Just thinkin........
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Re: Re:

#183 Postby 'CaneFreak » Thu Aug 08, 2013 4:15 pm

Because people don't understand how it works for some reason. It's quite simple in my opinion.

RL3AO wrote:
alienstorm wrote:
Too date I am not impress with this new 5 day outlook, but let's see what happens in the coming weeks.


Why not?
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Re: Re:

#184 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 08, 2013 6:33 pm

'CaneFreak wrote:Because people don't understand how it works for some reason. It's quite simple in my opinion.

RL3AO wrote:
alienstorm wrote:
Too date I am not impress with this new 5 day outlook, but let's see what happens in the coming weeks.


Why not?


change is not always good.... :wink:
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Re: Wave/Surface Trough in Central Caribbean

#185 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 08, 2013 6:34 pm

No more mention.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU AUG 8 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Re: Wave/Surface Trough in Central Caribbean

#186 Postby 'CaneFreak » Thu Aug 08, 2013 7:55 pm

No surprise. Very little in the way of tstorm activity this evening.

cycloneye wrote:No more mention.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU AUG 8 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FIVE
DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA
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Re: Wave/Surface Trough in Central Caribbean

#187 Postby weatherwindow » Fri Aug 09, 2013 11:22 am

Good morning, Luis, CF et al...altho no longer noted on the TWO, it appears that the wave has continued west and, at the 48hr mark, is beginning to interact with the monsoon trof north of Panama. Broad low pressure, normally inland over Columbia, moved offshore as a well defined 1009mb surface low. It remains stationary thru 72hrs. This feature appears to be the initial disturbance, noted by the NAVGEM/GFS, in the genesis of the TC which moves NNW to the Yucatan Channel...Grtz from KW, Rich

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif
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Re: Wave/Surface Trough in Central Caribbean

#188 Postby bamajammer4eva » Fri Aug 09, 2013 12:06 pm

weatherwindow wrote:Good morning, Luis, CF et al...altho no longer noted on the TWO, it appears that the wave has continued west and, at the 48hr mark, is beginning to interact with the monsoon trof north of Panama. Broad low pressure, normally inland over Columbia, moved offshore as a well defined 1009mb surface low. It remains stationary thru 72hrs. This feature appears to be the initial disturbance, noted by the NAVGEM/GFS, in the genesis of the TC which moves NNW to the Yucatan Channel...Grtz from KW, Rich

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif



Consensus from last nights 00z ensembles of Euro, Navy, Canadian, GFS

Image
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Re: Wave/Surface Trough in Central Caribbean

#189 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 09, 2013 1:35 pm

bamajammer4eva wrote:
weatherwindow wrote:Good morning, Luis, CF et al...altho no longer noted on the TWO, it appears that the wave has continued west and, at the 48hr mark, is beginning to interact with the monsoon trof north of Panama. Broad low pressure, normally inland over Columbia, moved offshore as a well defined 1009mb surface low. It remains stationary thru 72hrs. This feature appears to be the initial disturbance, noted by the NAVGEM/GFS, in the genesis of the TC which moves NNW to the Yucatan Channel...Grtz from KW, Rich

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/tafb_latest/atl ... testBW.gif



Consensus from last nights 00z ensembles of Euro, Navy, Canadian, GFS

http://i.imgur.com/1ERdaA8.png



this is what the models have been showing....nice map...

well to be honest the FIM had it first, then the NAVGEM and finally the GFS....
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Re: Wave/Surface Trough in Central Caribbean

#190 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 09, 2013 1:48 pm

there is a MLC down there right off the coast.....not stacked but you can see at 10N 78W

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurr.html
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Re: Wave/Surface Trough in Central Caribbean

#191 Postby Sanibel » Fri Aug 09, 2013 5:08 pm

Some kind of spin there.


The tiny system poofed badly.
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Re: Wave/Surface Trough in Central Caribbean

#192 Postby ROCK » Fri Aug 09, 2013 5:12 pm

Sanibel wrote:Some kind of spin there.


The tiny system poofed badly.



yep...actually pulled away from the coast...probably develope in the EPAC now..
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Re: Wave/Surface Trough in Central Caribbean

#193 Postby Kingarabian » Fri Aug 09, 2013 5:15 pm

ROCK wrote:
Sanibel wrote:Some kind of spin there.


The tiny system poofed badly.



yep...actually pulled away from the coast...probably develope in the EPAC now..

:)
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Re: Wave/Surface Trough in Central Caribbean

#194 Postby Sanibel » Sat Aug 10, 2013 5:53 am

Something pops, looks like it is developing, and gets taken right down by conditions. :grrr: :cold:
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