Gulf of Mexico Disturbance--PGI37L

[TexWx]

And "poof" again tonight.

[Bailey1777]

give it a little time i dont think it was expected to spin up just yet all the ingredients arent there yet

[Steve]

No they aren't. This is a Thursday/Friday/(Saturday ) issue IMHO. If anything happens, look for it to start taking shape sometime Thursday daytime (36-48 hour timeframe).

^^^The above is the opinion of this poster only^^^

[JenBayles]

We had a Surfside fishing trip planned for Saturday, so I have no doubt we'll at least see some rain on the coast.

[Steve]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

NAM only out to 36 hours, but it looks more like a backing up front than anything else. So if something was to get going on the 00z run, it would be after 36. Let's see what comes in.

*edit* 48 hours shows spinning off the TX Coast kind of meandering in the NW Gulf. Need another 24 to see what happens.

[South Texas Storms]

send some rain to texas from it please!

[KFDM Meteorologist]

84 HR NAM....What a Mess for SE Texas

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_084l.gif

[dixiebreeze]

Tropical Weather Statements
416
NOUS42 KNHC 241300
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0900 AM EDT TUE 24 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-085

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: THE NASA DC-8 WILL FLY AN 8-HR RESEARCH
MISSION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY AT 38,000 FT.
TAKEOFF TIME IS 24/1400Z.

[South Texas Storms]

kfdm what can i expect in san antonio from this disturbance?

[ROCK]

I am not sold on anything spinning up in the GOM until we can get persistance over night....

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8conv.html

nothing standing out just yet....

12z GFS 36hr...looks wet...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_036l.gif

[Wx_Warrior]

72H

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Low to far south on the GFS in my opinion. We'll see though. Sure not going to shift South Saturday with weakness to the north at 500. This new GFS is about as bad as the old one.

[Wx_Warrior]

Agreed...it's pretty poor.

[CrazyC83]

Even if this does develop, I don't see it becoming very strong. Maybe a weak to moderate TS.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Even if this does develop, I don't see it becoming very strong. Maybe a weak to moderate TS.

Hope so, but winds aloft are favorable by late Wed. plus it will be over Water a while.

[ROCK]

Even if this does develop, I don't see it becoming very strong. Maybe a weak to moderate TS.

Hope so, but winds aloft are favorable by late Wed. plus it will be over Water a while.

doesnt take much as all saw with Alicia and Rita...a slow tracker can really spin up if right conditions aloft....Heat potential is not an issue at all....

[South Texas Storms]

00z euro spins up maybe a td just east of brownsville in 48 hours. someone correct me if im wrong?
but it looks to be further south than the 12z run.

[Wx_Warrior]

Can't tell on the strength, but yes, South Texas.

[South Texas Storms]

so if this came to verify would i be looking at a lot of rain wx warrior?

[Wx_Warrior]

Yes.

I can say the EURO hasn't been as good with weaker storms this season. But it along with GFS (not saying much) has this mess going further south while NAM keeps in upper Texas/SWLA.