Wave in Central Caribbean

[chrisjslucia]

Well now we have both waves showing at NHC. As it has been chucking it down all day here in St Lucia, not sure why it took until this afternoon to flag the westerly one. As for the threat from the east, it seems from the (limited number of) track models and divergence of opinion that we'll have to wait for a better idea of where it is headed - currently models vary as far as showing it brushing Trinidad and heading north west well before the Leewards. Anyway, the force of the rain and wind levels are far lower than when what became Alex passed by.

[HURAKAN]

498
ABNT20 KNHC 292351
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUL 29 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE ARE
MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION AT THIS TIME...AND ANY DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT
10 TO 15 MPH. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS COULD
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
OCEAN ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS
SYSTEM SHOWS SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT
MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[Florida1118]

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD MOVING
TROPICAL WAVE. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

real descriptive in this TWO.

[Florida1118]

A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT AROUND 15 TO 20
MPH.

[HURAKAN]

Needs to be watched as it moves westward

[HURAKAN]

The central and western Caribbean look quite favorable

[rockyman]

Should we change the title to "Wave in Eastern Caribbean"? I think the center of focus has shifted to the west of the Islands.

By the way, CIMSS is still following this as one of their "test invests":

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/pred ... 000&loop=0

[TheBurn]

[Sanibel]

Time for a title change. The wave is now into the Caribbean. It actually has better organization than 90L. However the upper level ahead is more hostile. I'd watch this as it approaches the west Caribbean.

[rockyman]

There's a pretty substantial trough exiting the east coast now...causing a break in the ridge around the Bahamas...if this system strengthens in the short term, it could begin to feel this weakness and turn more WNW...but if it stays weak, it'll miss this weakness and continue into Central America.

[rockyman]

Looking at the CIMSS surface data, there could be a little circulation trying to develop here...of course, land effects could also account for the winds:

[KWT]

Decent convection aloft, conditions look marginal for development but I wouldn't be surprised if it does get invested in the W.Caribbean.

[Ivanhater]

UKMET



Euro



NOGAPS



GFS



CANADIAN

[KWT]

The UKMO develops the wave behind it from the looks of things...

But all the models do seem to develop a weak system from the looks of things, probably another race against time setting up with this one with another possible borderline system.

[HURAKAN]

Pressure decreasing and winds have peaked at 27.6 knots.

Link - http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42059

[KWT]

Could well see a sneak development with this one in the W.Caribbean its got about 72hrs to try and do something, possible invest tomorrow IMO.

[HURAKAN]

Could well see a sneak development with this one in the W.Caribbean its got about 72hrs to try and do something, possible invest tomorrow IMO.

I'm more interested about this system than 90L. Of course, on the short term. Long term is different.

This system is moving towards an area climatologically speaking, more favorable for development and the shear maps look great for the central and western Caribbean.

[HURAKAN]

latest

[KWT]

Some very high shear aloft for this wave, that ULH is going to have to stay close to wher eit is if this one is going to have a chance.

[Weatherfreak000]

Vorticity looks very nice with this. I am confident it will become a TC when it makes it to the W. Caribbean. It's anyones guess from there on out.