Strong wave near Leeward Islands - Is Invest 97L

[Ivanhater]

I believe this is the wave the Canadian model blew up last night

[Gustywind]

[Blown Away]

Michael, what disturbance in the Atlantic is the Canadian sending through the FL straits in 180 hours?

[KWT]

Convection more or less gone with this disturbance now so I wouldn't be surprised if its dropped soon again...

GFS ensembles do show a moderate wave moving WNW

[Ivanhater]

Michael, what disturbance in the Atlantic is the Canadian sending through the FL straits in 180 hours?

I believe it is the wave the NHC mentioned.

KWT, imo the NHC mentioned this wave because of the structure and spin not necessarily because of the convection. If it keeps its structure it will run into a more moist environment...

[Blown Away]

Michael, what disturbance in the Atlantic is the Canadian sending through the FL straits in 180 hours?

I believe it is the wave the NHC mentioned.

KWT, imo the NHC mentioned this wave because of the structure and spin not necessarily because of the convection. If it keeps its structure it will run into a more moist environment...

I'm sorry I didn't catch the Code Yellow! I agree this is the wave the Canadian in seeing. More importantly this is Luis's wave that he gave up on!

[cycloneye]

More importantly this is Luis's wave that he gave up on!

You are right about that. But that is why the tropics are full of surprises everyday.

[KWT]

KWT, imo the NHC mentioned this wave because of the structure and spin not necessarily because of the convection. If it keeps its structure it will run into a more moist environment...

Yeah that is true, the structure is decent enough but when it was upped to a yellow, there was still some convection, granted it was limited, now there is pretty much nothing at all, thats why I'd go down to near 0%. That stable air IMO isn't going anywhere soon, you can see the way its dragging in the stable air on the images of this wave. It may well eventually do something way down the line but not just yet.

[Nimbus]

The structure is unfortunately holding together really well despite the dry air. If it were not for the track crossing the Florida keys and headed towards Texas I would be talking it up more. Once it gets west of 50W it will be in a more favorable environment. Still time for a killer TUTT to develop or a savior trough to dig off the east coast. If it does spin up the track might stay north of the islands and just give Luis a haircut.

[KWT]

If it has a shot at developing it'll be in the Bamahas region IMO, between 50-65W there is some pretty horrid shear aloft and that is forecasted to remain in place, which you combine with probably some dry air still aloft is probably why there is little model development of this beyond maybe a moderate/sharp wave.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUL 15 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC IS MOVING
WESTWARD AT 15 MPH. NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED AT
LEAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD
MOVING TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW TO OCCUR. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HEAVY RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/CANGIALOSI

[KWT]

Well they pretty much kept it at 10% just to cover themselves from the looks of things, the NHC also seem to think it could be a player down the road but not just yet.

[cycloneye]

NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED AT
LEAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

That is the most important sentence of this outlook for the wave.

[ronjon]

GFS vorticity from this wave hitting S FL in about a week. I think we need to watch this one from the LA to the SE Bahamas - conditions could be favorable for development then.

[Vortex]

I also agree with you ronjon. All the guidance builds in significant ridging to the north for the next 7-8 days...There is no reason this system should not continue west into the Gulf if the models are correct. As far as development, that remains to be seen but I'd expect an overall increase in convection and organization in about 2-3 days especially once it passes 60w. More later....

[Blown Away]

I see rotation with limited convection in the area of 12N/37W.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

[hurricaneCW]

It's actually not a bad wave, at least structurally but I don't think it has a chance. It's in a very dry environment and heading right toward the TUTT, but at least it's a start. Conditions can only get better from this point on so I'm hoping we see something develop soon. The MJO is becoming favorable and the SAL is subsiding somewhat. There are areas of light shear around but there are still too many areas of 30-40+ knots of shear out there. Anything that gets going would get shredded. The Western Carribbean is the place to watch. There's a lot of convection over there, some lighter shear, but it would be no threat to the U.S.

I hope August goes insane with tropical activity. There's so much energy out there that's just waiting to be tapped. Give me some long range Cat 4/5's.

[chrisjslucia]

I hope August goes insane with tropical activity. There's so much energy out there that's just waiting to be tapped. Give me some long range Cat 4/5's.

I love the Storm 2K site and the knowledge of most of the posters here but comments like this make me wonder which planet some people are on. For those of us living on small Caribbean islands, long range Cat 4/5s are the last thing we want to see headed our way. Maybe hurricaneCW is from some area well out of hurricane range (info not on his / her profile). If we see a Cat 5 coming this way, join us, we promise to tie you down to something!

[Wx_Warrior]

That poster wouldn't last in a Cat 2. Would cry.

[ConvergenceZone]

it looks like just a nude swirl to me.....I think that's what they call it.