EPAC / Caribbean development later this week?

[cycloneye]

TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT MON MAY 24 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS FORMED NEAR CENTRAL AMERICA...A FEW
HUNDRED MILES WEST OF COSTA RICA. ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING HEAVY RAINS OVER COSTA
RICA...NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE

[Aquawind]

YAY!! Get it outta my basin..

[HURAKAN]

Latest

[HURAKAN]

Latest model rundown

[Hurricane Andrew]

Interesting track. The storm would probably undergo rapid intenseafacation.

[BigA]

Interesting track. The storm would probably undergo rapid intenseafacation.

I would imagine that that's rather unlikely this time of year, as rapid intensification requires nearly perfect upper level conditions, and those are rarely found in the Caribbean (or anywhere else in the Atlantic basin) in late May or early June.

That said, the western Caribbean is probably the most favorable area in the Atlantic basin for early season formation and intensificaition

[Hurricane Andrew]

True...True.

I still think it could go from 30MPH to 70MP in 2 days. (Not RI.)

[CrazyC83]

10% is a bit low to declare an Invest IMO, but it could be 90E soon if things increase a bit. (For comparison, a 10% probability of precipitation is usually not mentioned in forecasts)

[Macrocane]

In the 90L forum the pro mets have said that an invest is declared when the NHC wants more information about a system regardless of the chances of developiong.

[HURAKAN]

:uarrow: In the 90L forum the pro mets have said that an invest is declared when the NHC wants more information about a system regardless of the chances of developiong.

Invest:
A weather system for which a tropical cyclone forecast center (NHC, CPHC, or JTWC) is interested in collecting specialized data sets (e.g., microwave imagery) and/or running model guidance. Once a system has been designated as an invest, data collection and processing is initiated on a number of government and academic web sites, including the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) and the University of Wisconsin Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (UW-CIMSS). The designation of a system as an invest does not correspond to any particular likelihood of development of the system into a tropical cyclone; operational products such as the Tropical Weather Outlook or the JTWC/TCFA should be consulted for this purpose.

Link - http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#i

[Ivanhater]

10% is a bit low to declare an Invest IMO, but it could be 90E soon if things increase a bit. (For comparison, a 10% probability of precipitation is usually not mentioned in forecasts)

That is true, 10 percent for the next 48 hours. However, with a great deal of disturbed weather already in place with a broad area of low pressure and with strong model support, I can see why the NHC is keeping tabs on this one.

[HURAKAN]

00z NAM develops the system in the EPAC

[jaxfladude]

Wierd this is reminding me of 2004 hurricane Season. Alex and Bonnie formed a few a days apart. Alex formed east of FL and moved N then east out to sea. Bonnie formed in the Atlantic and enter the Caribbean into FL. Only difference is That they formed in end of July and early August.

This year what might be Alex is forming again east of FL, and what may be Bonnie Is forming in Eastern Pacific but head up into the Caribbean if forecast models hold.

2004?!? I shudder, being a resident of Florida and all(Jax).
Hope all make it safe during the season wherever you are.

[HURAKAN]

00z GFS @ 54 hours

[Ivanhater]

72 hours..Looks like we will have our first named system in the epac in only a couple of days..steering should move it into the Western Caribbean

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE MAY 25 2010

THREE TROUGHS ARE ANALYZED ALONG THE ITCZ. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 07N88W THROUGH COSTA RICA INTO THE EXTREME
SW CARIBBEAN SEA AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY OF THE DAY FROM
SEVERAL HOURS AGO INDICATED WELL DEFINED LOW AND MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC TURNING OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND LOW CLOUD MOTIONS SUGGEST A BROAD LOW
PRESSURE AREA MAY BE DEVELOPING OVER NORTHERN COSTA RICA OR
SOUTHERN NICARAGUA. THE AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR THE TROUGH IS
LIKELY DUE TO INCREASING S TO SW WINDS S OF THE ITCZ AND UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW TO THE SE OF AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 14N102W.

[KWT]

ECM is very agressive on its 0z run with it developing a fairly decent system by 96hrs which turns northwards towards Mexico...

Though suych systems are not common in the early season, you don't often get landfalling systems in the early season in the EPAC, they are far morem common in late season.

[Kingarabian]

Well when this system develops into a storm and crosses Mexico shouldn't it dissipate?

[KWT]

Yes but there is always a risk that the energy left over could help spark something else up on the other side, we saw that in 2008 with Alma and Arthur.

[cycloneye]

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251131
TWOEP
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT TUE MAY 25 2010

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE
SLOW TO OCCUR. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH