Area of disturbed weather in the Caribbean

[dixiebreeze]

Another view: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html

[Cainer]

This is a pretty impressive blob for early June. Cloud tops were up around -80 at one point. Still though, a blob doesn't make a TD; though I wouldn't be surprised to see something try to work down to the surface in the convection. Shear is still high, but lightening up a little bit. You never know, stranger things have happened!

[brunota2003]

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057

There is the nearest buoy, which is NE of Honduras (just north of the convection) and pressures are rising, not a good sign if you want something to develop.

[floridasun78]

time will tell we should see how look by evening on monday

[floridasun78]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE... LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

2. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/COBB
NNNN


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml

[KWT]

Still got huge convective burst, though I do wonder whether it is the shear itself which is helping to blow up this convective blob, it does happen sometimes.

[cycloneye]

Will it be a invest later today?

[KWT]

Well its been going for a little while now, may well become an invest if it keeps flaring up like it has done over the last 12-18hrs. Big IF of course!

[wxman57]

Just a tropical wave interacting with a sharp upper-level trof axis in a high shear environment for now. As the wave axis continues moving westward today, the convection should diminish. Just in the past hour I think I can detect the convection starting to wane. No invest today.

[tailgater]

Still got huge convective burst, though I do wonder whether it is the shear itself which is helping to blow up this convective blob, it does happen sometimes.

Shear driven mostly look at the Upper Divergence, but there is some low level convergence now.

[cycloneye]

395
ABNT20 KNHC 081153
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON JUN 8 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND JAMAICA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE... LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BLAKE

[HURAKAN]

[HURAKAN]

[tailgater]

This would be a nice place for a TUTT to set up camp, Well for us here in the CONUS.

[Sanibel]

Sheared east and weakening. Weak to begin with. We'll see if it bursts again tonight from diurnal enhancement.

[HURAKAN]

[tailgater]

Pretty interesting Qiuck scat This morning.

[RL3AO]

Pretty interesting Qiuck scat This morning.

Surface through is pretty apparent there isn't it?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Pretty interesting Qiuck scat This morning.

Surface though is pretty apparent there isn't it?

If there is a low, it is inland in Nicaragua.

[wyq614]

Wait and see, it also took more than 7 days for pre-Paloma to develop, and also in this area.