Long Range Models

[boca]

The 00zGFS has that low off SE Florida at 384hrs. The interesting part of this is that the low never gets lost and reappears later on this run. Its consistently there.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_384m.gif

[Meso]

simeon9benjamin : The wave begins to emerge off Africa in 72 hours.

00z CMC not showing much

[KWT]

Well the GFS still showing this system developing heading WNW/NW between 120-180hrs, its been very consistant with this call so we will have to watch and see.

[Meso]

84 Hour

This run at 84 hours the wave has emerged but no low formed yet

162 Hour

Slightly weaker this run,and seems to be moving far too slowly for a likely event

[Meso]

GFS 120 Hour

[Derek Ortt]

starting to think this is a phantomcane

[cycloneye]

192 hours

No more low.

[Eyewall]

Even if this does not happen I still say this is a bad sign of things to come. These waves have been impressive since May.The cv season will get going no later than last week of July.

[Thunder44]

starting to think this is a phantomcane

You are just starting to think that?

[Meso]

12z CMC

48 Hours
Wave begins to emerge off Africa

78 Hours
Has the low

138 Hours
Still has low moving West


LARGE Sat image
I`m thinking the current convection over Ghana is the area that the models are developing

[cycloneye]

12z EURO at 120 hours

The 12z EURO has a weak low south of the Cape Verde islands.

[deltadog03]

Euro also showing a week wave into the central GOM in the upcoming week.

[KWT]

Interesting that the ECM also shows a weak closed low as well, doesn't look strong enough to be a tropical depression.

The GFS run also has it but seems to take the wave NW as soon as it hits the waters obviously into cooler waters and probably into higher shear as well. We shall see what will happen.

[Sanibel]

GFS nailed one from far out last year, but June tells me a 72 hour CV prediction is unlikely.

[srainhoutx]

Euro also showing a week wave into the central GOM in the upcoming week.

Add moves it westbound by the 4th of July.

[KWT]

Well late June to be fair, unlikely but we did see a TD form in the eastern Atlantic in late June in 2000 so its not totally impossible, just very unlikely it does have to be said. I suspect the models are just developing a strong tropical wave with a weak closed off circulation present, doesn't mean its going to beocme a tropical cyclone.

[cycloneye]

No consensus whatsoever.

[SouthFloridawx]

Consensus or not... It's picking up on something out there, in the short-term future. 72-96 hours, low pressure in the East Atlantic. Hopefully we'll have something to track. That and the upper level high building in the Gulf with a wave nearby.

[Thunder44]

Interesting that the ECM also shows a weak closed low as well, doesn't look strong enough to be a tropical depression.

It looks more like a open wave on here:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMW ... floop.html

[cycloneye]

18z GFS Loop

Drops it.