2015 Global model runs discussion

[floridasun78]

let see what happen

[LarryWx]

The 0Z GFS at hour 180 (10/20) in the Bay of Campeche has a 1007 mb closed sfc low. That's quite different from prior GFS runs. It is quite a bit earlier than earlier runs put a low there. Hmmmm. Let's see where it goes.

[LarryWx]

0Z GFS: W GOM strengthens to 1002 mb at 216 hours/10-22 at 0z moving NNE toward N Gulf coast. Much different and more threatening solution.

Low then moves NE and then ENE toward NE Gulf coast.

Edit: It appears that the 0Z CMC will be much further NE in the GOM and stronger after WC low forms vs the low burying itself into SW GOM on 12Z CMC. Still more maps to be released.

Update on 0Z CMC: hour 186 has 998 mb low just an of n tip of Yucatan drifting very slowly northward 18Z on 10/20. At hour 222, hurricane at 988 mb in middle of Gulf drifting NNE or NE. Hour 240: 992 mb H moving ENE toward S or C FL for potential hit late 10/23.
Ahead of this, very heavy rains fall through much of the SE US aided by secondary low forming off the SE coast.

New ballgame, folks. Wait til Gator, HM, and others see what has happened with the 0Z GFS/CMC!

[LarryWx]

The 0Z NAVGEM sticks with a threatening situation with a 969 mb H at hour 180 (10/20 12Z) in the SE gulf moving very slowly NW but getting ready to recurve as a high gets ready to move offshore the NE US.

The 0Z GEFS members are now all over the place and is more threatening to the US Gulf coast in general vs. the 18Z run with varying landfall days/locations.

The 0Z Euro still has pretty much nothing (similar to the 12Z Euro) and is very different from the 0Z GFS. Stay tuned for the later models of Tue! We have a new ballgame for at least the time being.

[chaser1]

I'd say those 100 to 1 odds bet for my $1.00, is looking a bit more interesting Baring a cold front sweeping the Caribbean, one should never write off the possibility of late October Caribbean or Gulf cyclogenesis. The saga continues....

[CourierPR]

The western Caribbean is moistening. We may be in for an interesting end game.

[Kingarabian]

06z GFS seems to have an EPAC system (that looks classifiable) crossover into the gulf. That system goes right into Texas.

[Weatherwatcher98]

That does not seem a likely October Storm Track

[stormlover2013]

until the EURO bites then I wouldn't be to worried

[Weatherwatcher98]

until the EURO bites then I wouldn't be to worried

I agree.

[stormlover2013]

and I am not just saying this being a euro homer but the euro has been money over the last month

[gatorcane]

The NAVGEM has backed off from the intense hurricane it is showing. It still shows a T.S. in the SE Gulf but nothing as strong as before. As expected it is folding...

[stormlover2013]

the good ole navgem lol

[LarryWx]

The NAVGEM has backed off from the intense hurricane it is showing. It still shows a T.S. in the SE Gulf but nothing as strong as before. As expected it is folding...

Gator,
It may very well be folding, which you predicted and would surprise very few of us since we know it is about as unreliable as any model. However, with it still having a solid TS in a similar threatening position, I wouldn't be surprised if it were to go back to a H on some later runs being that intensity forecasts are often jumpy. At least it still has a WC genesis, which it has yet to give up on.
Also, note that the 0Z CMC (yes, I realize it is not too much less unreliable than the NAVGEM) has gone back closer to the NAVGEM. Furthermore, the 0Z GFS sort of went a little in the direction of the NAVGEM late with it having a TC in the NE GOM.

[stormlover2013]

I wouldn't even bring up the cmc and navy they are the 2 worse models with the Nam

[caneman]

stormlover, I'm pretty sure everyone knows those models performance records. What you are looking for is clusters of models agreeing.

[stormlover2013]

I know what I am looking for and what I am seeing is only one consistent model in the past month and that's the euro, GFS has been up and down, CMC horrible, Navy is horrible, so until euro gets on board then I wouldn't be worried....

[LarryWx]

I wouldn't even bring up the cmc and navy they are the 2 worse models with the Nam

The NAM may be the very worst as it goes out only a mere 84 hours and still tends to be awful.

[gatorcane]

Here is what the 06Z NAVGEM shows, weaker for sure than the 00Z and previous 2 days of runs. I am guessing by the 12Z run it will not have much:

[caneman]

If you're waiting on the euro only you may be waiting awhile as far as genesis they aren't the best as sometimes they missed development or where late to the party. Granted, if they come, it will help solidify any model consensus.