2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[Ianswfl]

Warm waters are fine in the caribbean but thankfully its been extremely hard to get anything from east past 75 west thankfully this season certainly dont see that changing. Other then the rare epac crossover this season was pretty uneventful for the Conus hopfully it stays that way.

I am worried about a CAG storm. It seems like the pattern is setting up as we have had several pulses already causing stormy weather here in the Keys. The CMC operational is showing a storm form in about a week in the NW Caribbean and the GFS ensembles are also showing a signal.

I would be willing to bet we will get a hurricane from this region in October. Hopefully shear will be an inhibiting factor as the water temps could easily support a high end major hurricane.

The gfs around oct10th had a big front clearing fl. Highs only mid to upper 70s lows getting into upper 50s for my area od swfl. Gulf will really cool if the temps don't rebound after a few days! This also could be the time a cag storm lifts north if something can get going like the canadian shows.

[mantis83]

12z euro says second season of october looking pretty quiet in the carribiean/gulf areas, tho has a recurving 91L coming close to bermuda

[WeatherBoy2000]

Warm waters are fine in the caribbean but thankfully its been extremely hard to get anything from east past 75 west thankfully this season certainly dont see that changing. Other then the rare epac crossover this season was pretty uneventful for the Conus hopfully it stays that way.

I am worried about a CAG storm. It seems like the pattern is setting up as we have had several pulses already causing stormy weather here in the Keys. The CMC operational is showing a storm form in about a week in the NW Caribbean and the GFS ensembles are also showing a signal.

I would be willing to bet we will get a hurricane from this region in October. Hopefully shear will be an inhibiting factor as the water temps could easily support a high end major hurricane.

The gfs around oct10th had a big front clearing fl. Highs only mid to upper 70s lows getting into upper 50s for my area od swfl. Gulf will really cool if the temps don't rebound after a few days! This also could be the time a cag storm lifts north if something can get going like the canadian shows.

Way too far out into fantasy land to take seriously, look at the change between one model cycle:

06z gfs:

12z gfs:

[MetroMike]

It's just the GFS up to it's old tricks in the change of seasons, see that every fall and winter.

[Ianswfl]

The 240 euro ensembles are out and they're a bit more west with Philly. Not much but a little perky. Will have to wait for the full 360 hr soon.

[Teban54]

0z CMC once again has the Caribbean storm towards the end of the run, 994 mb moving NW at 10 days. However, looks like development could also possibly occur in EPAC instead.

[mantis83]

0z euro and gfs are as quiet as a church mouse in the carribean heading into the first week of october....

[floridasun]

Good we have quiet time after the wild wild tropics maybe elnino kicking in making Tropic quiet

[zzzh]

EPS shows CAG in day 10 range. EPAC will be favored first and then the Atlantic.

[Blown Away]

EPS shows CAG in day 10 range. EPAC will be favored first and then the Atlantic.

00z EPS... Slight hint in the long range. If EPS is showing this I'll give it a slight chance. Don't trust GEFS w/ CAG systems. JMHO...

[LarryWx]

Good we have quiet time after the wild wild tropics maybe elnino kicking in making Tropic quiet

Florida,
I was going to say that El Niño may be about ready to kick butt and finally put this basin to sleep. But not quite yet as it is still busy with the twins Philippe and Rina still out there as well as a chance for a ridge over troubled waters part 2 off the US E coast though that may never become tropical.

[Ianswfl]

12 Canadian ensembles after October 6th start going wild in the carribean snd euro ensembles also perking up a bit as well as gfs ensembles for the western carribean

[Ubuntwo]

18z GFS has a wave briefly spin up before being driven into Hispaniola, as well as a frontal low forming over the Gulf. A circ also briefly forms in the SW caribbean before its mid level circ and moisture are sheared off into the eastern pacific.

[Ianswfl]

Ensembles bit more active for the carribean and gfs has slop gulf system end of run

[Ianswfl]

Euro ensembles starting to pick up on cag activity now.

[SFLcane]

Hmm…

[Ubuntwo]

Another GFS run with the Gulf system, this very briefly attains tropical status before transitioning in the Atlantic.
Ensemble support:


This originates from an EPAC system crossing over. Its mid level energy interacts with a front dipping down over the Gulf for a brief spinup. The ICON and CMC also depict vorticity drilling down near the bay of campeche:



This would likely be a high shear environment, and GFS runs have been on and off with moisture levels permitting transition. The Euro doesn't even cross the system over - let's see who comes out on top

[Ianswfl]

Icon forms a very weak low in the central Caribbean later on. This also showed up as a blip in some euro runs. Very very weak though.

[Ianswfl]

The 12z euro ensembles through 240 hours a much stronger signal for the Gulf and a cross over system from the EPAC that CMC and GFS was hinting at times at. Would like to see the full 360 hour run that's out in a couple hours. It will likely whatever it is get chucked towards somewhere in the eastern Gulf due to the sub tropical jet such as FL or AL.

https://weather.us/cyclone-tracks/euro/ ... 2-240.html

[Ianswfl]

GFS still showing an EPAC storm crossing over. Becomes a hurricane again in the Gulf.