TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics Thread #7

#161 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 9:23 pm

fact789 wrote:is it me or is florence elongated north to south?

What you're seeing is the upper-level wind flow "grabbing" Florence and turning it northward. Won't get much farther west than it is now. Could even track east of Bermuda. Intensification window is very short now. Shear will be increasing tomorrow.

Zardoz · #162 Postby **Zardoz** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 9:37 pm

That's not the eye trying to form there at 26N?

#163 Postby **wxman57** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 9:43 pm

Zardoz wrote:

That's not the eye trying to form there at 26N?

That's a shadow produced by some "overshooting" thunderstorm tops. No eye.

theworld · #164 Postby **theworld** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 9:45 pm

Website · #165 Postby **Brent** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 9:47 pm

SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT FLORENCE IS POSSIBLY STRENGTHENING
TONIGHT. A ROUND CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FORMED OVER THE APPARENT
CENTER... AND EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW THE POSSIBLE FORMATION
OF AN EYE. HOWEVER... RECENTLY THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS BECOME
ELONGATED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH AND CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED.

From the 11pm discussion.

#166 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 9:50 pm

when were the advisory information taken? i think the center is at 65.1-65.3west. tell me why they put 64.9?

#167 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 9:50 pm

FLORENCE REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM FROM THE CENTER.

more compact! good news!

cheezyWXguy · #168 Postby **cheezyWXguy** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 9:57 pm

Evil Jeremy wrote:FLORENCE REMAINS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM FROM THE CENTER.

more compact! good news!

No, bad news...that means that the circulation is tightening and the storm is getting stronger, which is worse for bermuda

marcane_1973 · #169 Postby **marcane_1973** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 10:03 pm

Looks like Florence will not be that big of a dealio for Bermuda maybe even track a little more East of them. This should be a breeze for the island of Bermuda considering other worse Hurricanes they have had in the past. Florence sure isnt no Fabian by any close means. :roll:

Oh...and even Randy Bynon who flew into Florence last evening said the storm was pretty unimpresive. That should tell ya something.

whereverwx · #170 Postby **whereverwx** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 10:14 pm

eh... maybe she'll be a hurricane tomorrow... if the atmosphere cooperates.

TheRingo · #171 Postby **TheRingo** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 10:25 pm

ok...
this is now past 65w
how come it looks like it's still going west?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

Normandy · #172 Postby **Normandy** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 10:26 pm

Florence looking sick right now, clearly still a TS

pgoss11 · #173 Postby **pgoss11** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 10:33 pm

TheRingo wrote:ok...
this is now past 65w
how come it looks like it's still going west?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/loop-wv.html

I still think it's stair stepping northwest, but it would be great if it stayed to the left of guidance and spared Bermuda the brunt of the storm.Let's all hope that for them

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #174 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 10:40 pm

Looking at 85h data above(Just got home)it looks to finally has developed a fair central core. With a weak banding eye. Let see if it can strengthen into a cane now.

#175 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 10:51 pm

As I posted on the previous page. There is a reason why the system seems to be sheared on the eastern side and is being squeezed by the ULT from the northwest creating the weakness at the same time. I'm not quite sure why this ULL or feature is not being mentioned as it is pretty clear it is influening Florence's eastern quad to some degree as evident by the disrupted outflow and convection thereof.

SouthFloridawx wrote:Has anyone else noticed this feature:

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... _ls_0.html

What kind of effect will it have on Florence?

Looking at the 200mb vorticity it appears that it is an upper level low.
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8vor1.html

#176 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 10:54 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-rb.html
To reinforce my point you can see the ragged looking cloud pattern on the east side in the above floater loop.

#177 Postby **JonathanBelles** » Sat Sep 09, 2006 11:12 pm

i hate to say it but i think florence has to get rid of ther baby to develop a better east side.

cpdaman · #178 Postby **cpdaman** » Sun Sep 10, 2006 12:01 am

flo is not still moving at 330

not saying she's moving ..... well i'm not gonna mention that but can you see how the cirrus in the last couple hours have stretched to the west a lot (bout 3 degrees longitute) on http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

btw what is the ULL to the east of her (is that what it is?) and while it seems like it was not initialized by models what if any effect would this have on flo's track

#179 Postby **SouthFloridawx** » Sun Sep 10, 2006 12:04 am

cpdaman wrote:flo is not still moving at 330

not saying she's moving ..... well i'm not gonna mention that but can you see how the cirrus in the last couple hours have stretched to the west a lot (bout 3 degrees longitute) on http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

btw what is the ULL to the east of her (is that what it is?) and while it seems like it was not initialized by models what if any effect would this have on flo's track

Ya know I'm kind of thinking that the Upper Level Low is pushing the convection away from the center, giving it the appearance that it is moving in the direction that you don't want to mention.. Yeah I noticed that too.

cpdaman · #180 Postby **cpdaman** » Sun Sep 10, 2006 12:07 am

i think u may be right but if i lived in the carolina's northward i'd be watching this still maybe prolonged northwest movement?

TS Florence,Analysis,Sat Pics Thread #7

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